All-In's 2026 Predictions
Episode Details
In their 2026 predictions episode, the All-In Podcast hosts, Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Friedberg, and David Sacks, cover a wide range of political, business, and technological forecasts. The discussion kicks off with David Sacks's recent move to Austin, Texas, framing a broader conversation about the controversial California Wealth Tax which is causing a capital flight from California, with notable figures like Larry Page and Sergey Brin of Google reportedly leaving. This tax proposal, promoted by figures like Ro Khanna and the SEIU, includes a punitive Super Voting Stock provision, prompting concern from Governor Gavin Newsom's administration. Politically, winners are predicted to be the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and politicians like Zohran Mamdani, while losers include Democratic Centrism and the Tech Industry, which is expected to become a populist target over issues like Censorship. A potential Trump Boom under Donald Trump is forecast, with predictions of 5-6% GDP Growth and a resurgent IPO market. Foreign policy may see the Monroe Doctrine replaced by a new Trump doctrine, rejecting Neocon Regime Change, and a potential Russia-Ukraine War Settlement is anticipated. In business, big winners are forecast to be Huawei, the prediction market platform Poly Market, the raw material Copper, and Amazon through its aggressive use of Robots. Conversely, the Software industrial complex is expected to be a major loser. The nature of deal-making is predicted to shift towards an IP License M&A Workaround, as seen in deals by Microsoft and Google, to bypass antitrust hurdles for traditional M&A, though some believe a Trump presidency could reopen the door for mega-deals involving companies like Anthropic. Contrarian beliefs include an Iran Revolution paradoxically causing more regional conflict, SpaceX reverse-merging into Tesla under Elon Musk, AI increasing jobs based on Jevons' Paradox, and a resolution to the Standoff with China. For asset performance, Poly Market and critical metals are tipped to perform well, while Hydrocarbons, the US Dollar, and Netflix are predicted to underperform. The most anticipated trends include a rise in Auditing Government Spending and the growth of Citizen Journalism, including phenomena like First Amendment Auditors, often distributed on platforms like YouTube.
Key Topics & People
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A co-host of the podcast who is organizing the programming for the upcoming All-In Liquidity Conference.
The U.S. President who brokered a two-week ceasefire with Iran and whose decision to enter the war was reportedly influenced by Benjamin Netanyahu.
An economic theory cited to explain that as the unit cost of AI-driven intelligence plummets, its overall consumption will massively increase.
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Governor of California, frequently contrasted with Josh Shapiro regarding governance and political ambitions.
A state discussed as a point of contrast to Pennsylvania regarding taxation, regulation, and business climate.
The podcast hosting Governor Josh Shapiro to discuss business, politics, and the economy.
A prediction market platform used by the hosts to track probabilities of political and market events.
Podcast host, scientist, and newly appointed member of PCAST.
Podcast host, investor, and newly appointed co-chair of PCAST.
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Podcast host and tech investor discussing consumer AI trends.
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Booming tech hub attracting founders like Travis Kalanick and Elon Musk, and the location of the podcast event.
A proposed state-level tax on the ultra-wealthy, projected to cause significant economic deficits.
Political organization pushing socialist policies in the United States.
The broader technology sector that experiences massive investment cycles, innovations, and subsequent bubbles.
The suppression of speech, public communication, or other information.
Co-founder of Google, hypothetically referenced regarding decisions to comply with the EU.
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Co-founder of Google, hypothetically referenced regarding decisions to exit European markets.
The practice of individuals independently researching and reporting on major stories, exemplified by guest Kevin Bass's use of AI to analyze the Epstein files and publish his findings on social media.
A specific form of citizen journalism mentioned by Sacks, where individuals film in public places to test and document the responses of business owners and police regarding First Amendment rights.
The ongoing geopolitical and economic tensions between the US and China, particularly concerning Taiwan. Jason Calacanis predicts this will be largely resolved under a second Trump term.
Predicted by David Sacks to be the most anticipated trend of 2026, involving a push for transparency and accountability in government expenditures at all levels.
A predicted uprising in Iran that would oust the Ayatollahs. Friedberg's contrarian belief is that this would paradoxically lead to more instability and conflict in the Middle East among other Arab states.
Friedberg's prediction for the biggest deal of 2026, anticipating a resolution to the conflict driven by economic and political factors.
A deal structure, predicted by Chamath to become dominant, where large companies make huge licensing deals with startups to acquire talent and IP, bypassing traditional M&A antitrust hurdles. Examples include Google/Character AI and Microsoft/OpenAI.
A foreign policy approach involving invasion, occupation, and nation-building, which Sacks argues is distinct from Trump's actions in Venezuela.
A political ideology predicted to be a major loser in 2026 as the Democratic party base shifts further left towards socialism and progressivism.
A predicted period of strong economic growth in 2026 under a potential Trump presidency, characterized by high GDP growth, low inflation, and a resurgent IPO market.
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A historical US foreign policy principle that Chamath predicts will be the 'biggest loser' of 2026, replaced by a new 'Trump Doctrine' focused on unilateralism and hemispheric dominance.
A provision in the proposed California wealth tax that would value stock based on voting power rather than liquid market value, disproportionately affecting founders like Larry Page and Sergey Brin.
Fossil fuels, particularly oil, which Chamath predicts will be a poor-performing asset due to the inexorable trends of electrification and energy storage.
The multi-trillion dollar industry of licensed enterprise software (SAS), which Chamath predicts will be a major business loser as AI automates and disrupts traditional maintenance and migration revenue streams.
A key economic indicator predicted to be exceptionally high (5-6.2%) in 2026, driven by the 'Trump Boom', productivity gains from AI, and tax cuts.
A politician representing the rise of socialism in the US, whose philosophy of 'collectivism' is seen as a winning political trend for 2026.
