All-In's 2026 Predictions
Episode Details
In their 2026 predictions episode, the All-In Podcast hosts, Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Friedberg, and David Sacks, cover a wide range of political, business, and technological forecasts. The discussion kicks off with David Sacks's recent move to Austin, Texas, framing a broader conversation about the controversial California Wealth Tax which is causing a capital flight from California, with notable figures like Larry Page and Sergey Brin of Google reportedly leaving. This tax proposal, promoted by figures like Ro Khanna and the SEIU, includes a punitive Super Voting Stock provision, prompting concern from Governor Gavin Newsom's administration. Politically, winners are predicted to be the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and politicians like Zohran Mamdani, while losers include Democratic Centrism and the Tech Industry, which is expected to become a populist target over issues like Censorship. A potential Trump Boom under Donald Trump is forecast, with predictions of 5-6% GDP Growth and a resurgent IPO market. Foreign policy may see the Monroe Doctrine replaced by a new Trump doctrine, rejecting Neocon Regime Change, and a potential Russia-Ukraine War Settlement is anticipated. In business, big winners are forecast to be Huawei, the prediction market platform Poly Market, the raw material Copper, and Amazon through its aggressive use of Robots. Conversely, the Software industrial complex is expected to be a major loser. The nature of deal-making is predicted to shift towards an IP License M&A Workaround, as seen in deals by Microsoft and Google, to bypass antitrust hurdles for traditional M&A, though some believe a Trump presidency could reopen the door for mega-deals involving companies like Anthropic. Contrarian beliefs include an Iran Revolution paradoxically causing more regional conflict, SpaceX reverse-merging into Tesla under Elon Musk, AI increasing jobs based on Jevons' Paradox, and a resolution to the Standoff with China. For asset performance, Poly Market and critical metals are tipped to perform well, while Hydrocarbons, the US Dollar, and Netflix are predicted to underperform. The most anticipated trends include a rise in Auditing Government Spending and the growth of Citizen Journalism, including phenomena like First Amendment Auditors, often distributed on platforms like YouTube.
Key Topics & People
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Former US President, cited as an example of a personality-driven political figure with built-in audiences.
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Host of the All-In Podcast and angel investor.
Host of the All-In Podcast and venture capitalist.
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Host of the All-In Podcast, venture capitalist, and early Facebook executive.
A popular technology and business podcast where industry leaders discuss startups, economy, and global events.
A key economic indicator that was recently revised upward to 3.7%, indicating a hotter-than-expected US economy.
Venture capitalist and co-host of the All-In Podcast who attended and helped shape the White House AI safety accord.
A left-wing political organization characterized by Spencer Pratt as a communist group that utilizes aggressive ballot harvesting.
The current Democratic Governor of California, criticized for policies that allegedly exacerbate the state's economic and infrastructural issues.
The state where both guests are campaigning, noted for its severe regulatory environment, high cost of living, and one-party political rule.
Economic principle indicating that increasing technological efficiency actually increases resource consumption.
Individuals who film in public spaces to test constitutional rights, a practice similar to Shirley's on-the-ground investigations.
Independent reporting executed by citizens outside legacy media institutions.
The suppression of speech, reflected in legislation attempting to ban Shirley's journalism.
Shares giving founders disproportionate control, debated for Anthropic's upcoming IPO.
NYC politician who implemented a ban on generative AI in schools.
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A city that had a high-profile debate over whether to cancel or renew its contracts with Flock.
Co-founder of Google, referenced in discussions about the company's long-term investment vision.
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Co-founder of Google who debated Elon Musk regarding the protection of humanity versus digital intelligence.
A prediction market platform used by the hosts to track probabilities of political and market events.
A proposed state-level tax on the ultra-wealthy, projected to cause significant economic deficits.
The broader technology sector that experiences massive investment cycles, innovations, and subsequent bubbles.
The ongoing geopolitical and economic tensions between the US and China, particularly concerning Taiwan. Jason Calacanis predicts this will be largely resolved under a second Trump term.
Predicted by David Sacks to be the most anticipated trend of 2026, involving a push for transparency and accountability in government expenditures at all levels.
A predicted uprising in Iran that would oust the Ayatollahs. Friedberg's contrarian belief is that this would paradoxically lead to more instability and conflict in the Middle East among other Arab states.
Friedberg's prediction for the biggest deal of 2026, anticipating a resolution to the conflict driven by economic and political factors.
A deal structure, predicted by Chamath to become dominant, where large companies make huge licensing deals with startups to acquire talent and IP, bypassing traditional M&A antitrust hurdles. Examples include Google/Character AI and Microsoft/OpenAI.
A foreign policy approach involving invasion, occupation, and nation-building, which Sacks argues is distinct from Trump's actions in Venezuela.
A political ideology predicted to be a major loser in 2026 as the Democratic party base shifts further left towards socialism and progressivism.
A predicted period of strong economic growth in 2026 under a potential Trump presidency, characterized by high GDP growth, low inflation, and a resurgent IPO market.
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A historical US foreign policy principle that Chamath predicts will be the 'biggest loser' of 2026, replaced by a new 'Trump Doctrine' focused on unilateralism and hemispheric dominance.
Fossil fuels, particularly oil, which Chamath predicts will be a poor-performing asset due to the inexorable trends of electrification and energy storage.
The multi-trillion dollar industry of licensed enterprise software (SAS), which Chamath predicts will be a major business loser as AI automates and disrupts traditional maintenance and migration revenue streams.
