Standoff with China
The ongoing geopolitical and economic tensions between the US and China, particularly concerning Taiwan. Jason Calacanis predicts this will be largely resolved under a second Trump term.
First Mentioned
1/10/2026, 6:21:02 AM
Last Updated
1/10/2026, 6:25:21 AM
Research Retrieved
1/10/2026, 6:25:21 AM
Summary
The standoff with China, primarily manifesting as the 2020–2021 China–India skirmishes, began on May 5, 2020, with aggressive confrontations along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in regions such as Ladakh and Sikkim. The conflict escalated significantly on June 15-16, 2020, during a deadly melee in the Galwan Valley, and saw the first shots fired in 45 years on September 7, 2020. Tensions were fueled by India's infrastructure projects, such as the Darbuk–Shyok–DBO Road, and the 2019 revocation of Jammu and Kashmir's special status. While disengagement efforts occurred in phases through 2021 and 2022, a comprehensive agreement on patrolling in Depsang and Demchok was reached in October 2024, leading to a full disengagement announcement in December 2024. Economically, the standoff prompted India to ban over 200 Chinese applications and initiate boycotts of Chinese products. Future forecasts, notably from the All-In Podcast, predict a definitive resolution to these tensions by 2026.
Referenced in 1 Document
Research Data
Extracted Attributes
Start Date
2020-05-05
Border Length
3,488 kilometers (undemarcated)
Key Locations
Ladakh, Pangong Lake, Galwan Valley, Sikkim, Depsang, Demchok
Economic Impact
Banning of over 200 Chinese applications (including Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, Sina, and Bytedance)
Primary Participants
India and China
Military Reinforcement
Deployment of 12,000 additional workers for infrastructure development
Timeline
- India revokes the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, causing concern in China. (Source: Wikipedia)
2019-08-01
- Initial aggressive confrontations and skirmishes begin near Pangong Lake in Ladakh. (Source: Wikipedia)
2020-05-05
- Deadly hand-to-hand combat occurs in the Galwan river valley, resulting in casualties on both sides. (Source: Wikipedia)
2020-06-15
- Shots are fired along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) for the first time in 45 years. (Source: Wikipedia)
2020-09-07
- The Indian government completes the banning of over 200 Chinese applications. (Source: Wikipedia)
2020-11-01
- Complete disengagement from the north and south banks of Pangong Lake is achieved. (Source: Wikipedia)
2021-02-01
- Disengagement occurs at Gogra (patrol point 17A), though analysts note a westward shift of the LAC. (Source: Wikipedia)
2021-08-01
- The 14th corps-commander-level meeting takes place at the Chushul-Moldo Border Personnel Meeting point. (Source: Wikipedia)
2022-01-12
- India and China reach an agreement on patrolling in the Depsang and Demchok regions. (Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
2024-10-01
- Official announcement that disengagement has been achieved in full. (Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
2024-12-01
- Predicted timeframe for the final resolution of the standoff with China. (Source: Document 5bce0809-68e1-42ae-bd57-caef72a9db47)
2026-01-01
Wikipedia
View on Wikipedia2020–2021 China–India skirmishes
Beginning on 5 May 2020, Chinese and Indian troops engaged in aggressive melee, face-offs, and skirmishes at locations along the Sino-Indian border, including near the disputed Pangong Lake in Ladakh and the Tibet Autonomous Region, and near the border between Sikkim and the Tibet Autonomous Region. Additional clashes also took place at locations in eastern Ladakh along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). In late May, Chinese forces objected to Indian road construction in the Galwan river valley. According to Indian sources, melee fighting on 15–16 June 2020 resulted in the deaths of Chinese and Indian soldiers. Media reports stated that soldiers were taken captive on both sides and released in the coming few days while official sources on both sides went on to deny this. On 7 September, for the first time in 45 years, shots were fired along the LAC, with both sides blaming each other for the firing. Indian media also reported that Indian troops fired warning shots at the PLA on 30 August. Partial disengagement from Galwan, Hot Springs, and Gogra occurred in June–July 2020 while complete disengagement from Pangong Lake north and south bank took place in February 2021. Following disengagement at Gogra in August 2021, Indian analysts pointed out that the LAC has shifted westwards at patrol point 17A (PP 17A). Amid the standoff, India reinforced the region with approximately 12,000 additional workers, who would assist India's Border Roads Organisation in completing the development of Indian infrastructure along the Sino-Indian border. Experts have postulated that the standoffs are Chinese pre-emptive measures in responding to the Darbuk–Shyok–DBO Road infrastructure project in Ladakh. China has also extensively developed its infrastructure in these disputed border regions and is continuing to do so. The revocation of the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, in August 2019, by the Indian government has also troubled China. However, India and China have both maintained that there are enough bilateral mechanisms to resolve the situation. This includes multiple rounds of colonel, brigadier, and major general rank dialogue, special representatives' meetings, meetings of the 'Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on China-India Border Affairs' (WMCC), and meetings and communication between their respective foreign and defense ministers. On 12 January 2022, the 14th corps-commander-level meeting at Chushul-Moldo Border Personnel Meeting (BPM) point took place. Following the Galwan Valley skirmish on 15 June, some Indian campaigns about boycotting Chinese products were started. Action on the economic front included cancellation and additional scrutiny of certain contracts with Chinese firms, and calls were also made to stop the entry of Chinese companies into strategic markets in India. By November 2020, the Indian government had banned over 200 Chinese apps, including apps owned by Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, Sina, and Bytedance.
Web Search Results
- 2020–2021 China–India skirmishes - Wikipedia
On 5 May, the first standoff began as a clash between Indian and Chinese soldiers at a beach of Pangong Tso, a lake shared between India and Tibet, China, with the Line of Actual Control (LAC) passing through it. A video showed soldiers from both nations engaging in fistfights and stone-pelting along the LAC. On 10/11 May, another clash took place. A number of soldiers on both sides had sustained injuries. Indian media reported that around 72 Indian soldiers were injured in the confrontation at Pangong Tso, and some had to be flown to hospitals in Leh, Chandi Mandir and Delhi. According to The Daily Telegraph and other sources, China captured 60 square kilometres (23 sq mi) of Indian-patrolled territory between May and June 2020. By the end of August it was reported that, according to the [...] Amid the standoff, India reinforced the region with approximately 12,000 additional workers, who would assist India's Border Roads Organisation in completing the development of Indian infrastructure along the Sino-Indian border. Experts have postulated that the standoffs are Chinese pre-emptive measures in responding to the Darbuk–Shyok–DBO Road infrastructure project in Ladakh. China has also extensively developed its infrastructure in these disputed border regions and is continuing to do so. The revocation of the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, in August 2019, by the Indian government has also troubled China. However, India and China have both maintained that there are enough bilateral mechanisms to resolve the situation. This includes multiple rounds of colonel, brigadier, and [...] ## Incidents A June 2020 report from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said that there have been simultaneous efforts by China to occupy land at multiple locations along the Sino-Indian border. Standoffs, skirmishes and transgressions have taken place at Pangong Tso, Kugrang Valley (referred to as "Hot Springs" and "Gogra"), Galwan Valley, the Depsang Bulge area, Gurung Hill and Reqin La in Ladakh; and at one location in Sikkim. Amid de-escalatory talks in Ladakh, on 29 June 2020, China, opened a new front in the border dispute by claiming, for the first time, that Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary is located in the disputed territory of Bhutan's Trashigang District.
- Negotiating the India-China Standoff: 2020–2024
#### Literature Review Work on the 2020 India-China standoff is diverse. There are long- and short-form works exploring different aspects of the standoff, such as China’s goals behind its actions in April–May 2020, military dynamics and border infrastructure, policy options for both countries, and comparisons between past and present standoffs.30 There are also works by diplomat-scholars that touch upon the present standoff and Chinese behavior along the LAC over the past decade.31 [...] Phase 3, September 2022–December 2024: Both sides adopted increasingly divergent and hardened postures on the standoff from September 2022 until mid-2024 and disagreed on the way forward for the standoff and the bilateral relationship. This situation changed between July and December 2024, with both sides coming to an agreement in October on patrolling in Depsang and Demchok. In December, it was announced that disengagement had been “achieved in full,” and broader bilateral exchanges were being discussed.34 [...] ### Part II: Detailing the Standoff Based on the negotiating positions both sides have adopted, it is possible to divide the standoff into three chronological phases. A brief description of the three phases is placed below, followed by a paraphrasing of India and China’s negotiating positions in the course of the standoff. This is followed by details of each phase, describing both sides’ positions in the meetings across the three channels of negotiation. The details of each phase of the standoff form the major part of this paper.
- Chinese & Japanese Ships Clash In Disputed Island Area - YouTube
Tensions have already been mounting between Beijing and Tokyo. This is after Japan's Prime Minister Sai Takayichi recently warned that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could trigger a response from her country. Taiwan lies just 110 km from Japan's westernmost island, Yonauni. The standoff comes as China expands military pressure around Taiwan and increases naval activity across East Asian waters. Just days ago, more than 100 Chinese vessels were reportedly observed across the region. Japan also scrambled jets last week as a Leoning escorted by three destroyers moved from the East China Sea into the Pacific. It is China's second major carrier deployment since commissioning its third carrier, the Fujian, last month. These radar confrontations are not new. Japan accused China of a similar act in [...] targeted plane to take defensive measures. Tensions have already been mounting between Beijing and Tokyo. This is after Japan's Prime Minister Sai Takichi recently warned that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could trigger a response from her country. Taiwan lies just 110 km from Japan's westernmost island, Yonaguni. The standoff comes as China expands military pressure around Taiwan and increases naval activity across East Asian waters. Just days ago, more than 100 Chinese vessels were reportedly observed across the region. Japan also scrambled jets last week as a Leoning escorted by three destroyers moved from the East China Sea into the Pacific. It is China's second major carrier deployment since commissioning its third carrier, a Fujian, last month. These radar confrontations are not new. [...] targeted plane to take defensive measures. Tensions have already been mounting between Beijing and Tokyo. This is after Japan's Prime Minister Sai Takayichi recently warned that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could trigger a response from her country. Taiwan lies just 110 km from Japan's westernmost island, Yonaguni. The standoff comes as China expands military pressure around Taiwan and increases naval activity across East Asian waters. Just days ago, more than 100 Chinese vessels were reportedly observed across the region. Japan also scrambled jets last week as a Leoning escorted by three destroyers moved from the East China Sea into the Pacific. It is China's second major carrier deployment since commissioning its third carrier, the A Fujian, last month. These radar confrontations are not
- 2025–2026 China–Japan diplomatic crisis - Wikipedia
On 15 November, the China Maritime Safety Administration announced that the People's Liberation Army would conduct live-fire exercises in the central Yellow Sea from 17 to 19 November, and that navigation in this area would be prohibited during this period.( The notice drew criticism from Taiwan, which accused Beijing of saber-rattling at Japan for political gain.( On 16 November, the China Coast Guard announced that a formation of its ships carried out a patrol within the territorial waters of the Senkaku Islands, a territory disputed between China Japan, and Taiwan.( The Japan Coast Guard said it drove the ships away.( On 2 December, Chinese and Japanese coastguard vessels engaged in a standoff over the islands. China said it had implemented "necessary control measures" and driven a [...] Dispute [edit] During deliberations in the National Diet on 7 November, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute "an existential crisis for Japan" under the Legislation for Peace and Security formulated in 2015, allowing it to take military action in self-defence.( Under the conditions of Legislation, a survival-threatening situation refers to an attack on a country with close ties to Japan that threatens Japan's survival and poses a clear danger to the lives of its people as a legal prerequisite for Japan exercising its right to collective self-defense, even if Japan itself is not directly attacked.( [...] called on the international community to "remain highly vigilant against Japan's ambitions to expand its military capabilities and revive militarism". In response, Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara called China's allegations "not true at all" and "totally unacceptable", saying Japan has "consistently contributed to the peace and prosperity" since the end of World War II.( On 4 December, Japanese ambassador Yamazaki again issued a rebuttal, calling China's assertions "inconsistent with the facts, unsubstantiated, and are categorically unacceptable".(
- China-India border dispute: Latest News and Updates
# China-India border dispute China-India border dispute China and India have a long history of troubles along their 3,488 kilometre undemarcated border that includes a war in 1962 and a number of more recent clashes such as the Doklam stand-off in 2017. The current "Line of Actual Control" that forms the effective border between the two countries dates back to boundaries drawn up before India's independence in 1947 and has been the subject of numerous rounds of talks and agreements. China's military weapons ## Chinese tank, upgraded for high altitudes, could be sent to border with India ### The Type 99B has been designed for ‘rapid and sustained combat operations’ in areas like the Himalayas, according to state media. China-India relations