Russia-Ukraine War Settlement

Extracted Attributes

• Displaced Persons

  8 million internally displaced; 6-7 million refugees

• Occupied Territory

  Approximately 20% of Ukraine as of December 2025

• Proposed Framework

  20-point peace plan (updated from a 28-point document)

• Primary Negotiators

  Steve Witkoff (US Envoy), Jared Kushner (US), Kirill Dmitriev (Russian Envoy), Volodymyr Zelensky (Ukraine)

• Key Negotiation Locations

  Miami (Florida, USA), Berlin (Germany), Paris (France)

• Direct War Cost for Russia

  Over 450 billion US Dollars

Timeline

• Initial start of the Russo-Ukrainian War with the annexation of Crimea and conflict in Donbas. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2014-02-20

• Russia launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, escalating the conflict significantly. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2022-02-24

• President Zelensky lists conditions for negotiation, including restoration of territorial integrity and war crime punishments. (Source: Web Search: Peace negotiations in the Russo-Ukrainian war)

  2022-11-01

• Ukraine launches a cross-border offensive into Russia's Kursk Oblast to gain leverage for future negotiations. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2024-08-01

• US and Ukrainian negotiators agree on a 20-point peace plan during meetings in Florida. (Source: Web Search: Zelensky reveals key points of draft settlement deal)

  2025-12-20

• President Zelensky publicly outlines the 20 key points of the draft settlement deal. (Source: Web Search: Zelensky reveals key points of draft settlement deal)

  2025-12-24

• UK and France agree to establish military hubs in Ukraine as part of security guarantees in a potential peace plan. (Source: Web Search: Ukraine allies agree to security guarantees)

  2026-01-06

• Forecasted timeframe for a potential Russia-Ukraine War settlement according to All-In Podcast predictions. (Source: Document 5bce0809-68e1-42ae-bd57-caef72a9db47)

  2026-12-31

Russo-Ukrainian war (2022–present)

On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, starting the largest and deadliest war in Europe since World War II. It is a major escalation of the war between the two countries that began when Russia attacked Ukraine in 2014. The fighting has caused hundreds of thousands of military casualties and tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilian casualties. As of December 2025, Russian troops occupy almost 20% of Ukraine. From a population of 41 million, about 8 million Ukrainians have been internally displaced and 6–7 million have fled the country, creating Europe's largest refugee crisis since World War II. In late 2021, Russia massed troops near Ukraine's borders and issued demands to the West, including a ban on Ukraine ever joining NATO. After repeatedly denying having plans to attack Ukraine, on 24 February 2022, Russian president Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation", saying that it was to support the Russian-backed breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, whose paramilitary forces had been fighting Ukraine in the Donbas War since 2014. Putin espoused irredentist and imperialist views challenging Ukraine's legitimacy as a state, baselessly claimed that the Ukrainian government were neo-Nazis committing genocide against the Russian minority in the Donbas, and said that Russia's goal was to "demilitarise and denazify" Ukraine. Russian air strikes and a ground invasion were launched on a northern front from Belarus towards the capital Kyiv, a southern front from occupied Crimea, and an eastern front from the Donbas towards Kharkiv. Ukraine enacted martial law, ordered a general mobilisation, and severed diplomatic relations with Russia. Russian troops retreated from the north and the outskirts of Kyiv by April 2022, after encountering stiff resistance and logistical challenges. The Bucha massacre was uncovered after their withdrawal. Russia launched an offensive in the Donbas and captured Mariupol after a destructive siege. Russia continued to bomb military and civilian targets far from the front, and struck Ukraine's energy grid during winter months. In late 2022, Ukraine launched successful counteroffensives in the south and east, liberating most of Kharkiv Oblast. Soon after, Russia illegally annexed four partly-occupied provinces. In November, Ukraine liberated the city of Kherson and all land west of the Dnipro river. After small but steady Russian advances in the east in the first half of 2024, Ukraine launched a cross-border offensive into Russia's Kursk Oblast in August, where North Korean soldiers were sent to help Russia. The United Nations Human Rights Office reports that Russia is committing severe human rights violations in occupied Ukraine. Russian attacks on civilians and policies in occupied territories have led to allegations of genocide. The direct cost of the war for Russia has been over US$450 billion. The Russian invasion was met with international condemnation. The UN General Assembly passed a resolution condemning the invasion and demanding a full Russian withdrawal. The International Court of Justice ordered Russia to halt military operations, and the Council of Europe expelled Russia. Many countries imposed sanctions on Russia and its ally Belarus while providing large-scale humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine. Protests occurred around the world, with anti-war protesters in Russia being met by mass arrests and greater media censorship. War-related disruption to Ukrainian agriculture and shipping worsened the world food crisis; war-related environmental damage was described as ecocide. The International Criminal Court (ICC) opened an investigation into crimes against humanity, war crimes, abduction of Ukrainian children, and genocide against Ukrainians. The ICC issued arrest warrants for Putin and five other Russian officials. Peace negotiations have stalled, and Russia has repeatedly refused calls for a ceasefire.

Web Search Results

• Why Ukraine Shouldn't Negotiate with Putin | Journal of Democracy

  Each of these three barriers to finding a negotiated settlement bodes poorly for the prospects of a negotiated settlement in the case of Russia and Ukraine. Our argument presented below suggests that the war in Ukraine is nowhere near ripe for a negotiated peace agreement or even short-term ceasefire. Forcing a settlement under these conditions is likely to backfire, with far-reaching consequences for international security. [...] War is costly and tragic, so it is no wonder there has been talk of a negotiated settlement since before the full Russian assault began on 24 February 2022. In December 2021, as Russia built up its invasion force on Ukraine’s borders, Moscow presented draft “treaties” to the United States and NATO, saying that the papers would maintain peace. But each treaty was little more than a Kremlin ultimatum against Ukraine and its Western partners. Among Putin’s demands were a permanent end to NATO’s eastward expansion and a commitment that the United States would never establish military bases or deploy forces in any state that had once belonged to the Soviet Union (including the three Baltic states, which had by democratic means become NATO members). There was also a blanket demand that the [...] View all work by Robert Person “Bargaining” theories of how wars start and end reveal just how resistant to political settlement is the Russo-Ukraine War today. They also point to the only way to end the war consistent with a just and durable peace that guarantees Ukrainian sovereignty and preserves international order. This war can only end on the fighting front, not the bargaining table. Russia’s unambiguous military defeat by Ukraine and its allies is essential. The West must accept this reality and finally commit to supporting a Ukrainian victory before it is too late.

• Ukraine allies agree to security guarantees in peace plan - NPR

  Moscow has revealed few details of its stance in the U.S.-led peace negotiations. Officials have reaffirmed Russia's demands and have insisted there can be no ceasefire until a comprehensive settlement is agreed. Russian President Vladimir Putin has ruled out any deployment of troops from NATO countries on Ukrainian soil. Starmer added that there can only be peace if Russia compromises, and "Putin is not showing that he is ready for peace." In the event of a ceasefire, he said the U.K. and France "will establish military hubs across Ukraine and build protected facilities for weapons and military equipment to support Ukraine's defensive needs." [...] In fighting Tuesday, Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) carried out drone strikes on a military arsenal and an oil depot deep inside Russia, according to a security official who was not authorized to comment publicly and thus spoke on condition of anonymity. The long-range drones hit the arsenal in Russia's Kostroma region, triggering explosions that lasted for hours and forced the evacuation of nearby settlements, the official said. The site was described as a key logistics hub supplying ammunition in western and central Russia. In a separate strike, SBU drones hit an oil depot in Russia's Lipetsk region, causing a huge fire, the official said. Ukraine Russia Russia Ukraine Russia-Ukraine war France U.K. Steve Witkoff

• Zelensky reveals key points of draft settlement deal for Ukraine

  The Russians have insisted that Ukraine pulls out of almost a quarter of its own territory in the eastern Donetsk region in return for a peace deal. The rest is already under Russian occupation. [...] And we begin with developments from Kiev where Ukraine's president Zilinski has outlined 20 key points of the latest draft settlement deal for the ongoing war. The plan is currently being reviewed by Moscow. It includes potential security guarantees from the US, NATO, and European partners, though Zilinski notes that the issue of territory remains unresolved. Under the new plan, Ukraine would stage a presidential election only after signing any deal. Let's speak to the Russia editor for BBC monitoring, Vitali Chevchenko. Vitali, what stands out to you in the details we've just had? >> The uncertainty really, the issue of whether Ukraine will have to give up territory uh for a promise of peace. That's still unresolved. Um, President Zilinski said that there are currently two options that [...] ### Description 125058 views Posted: 24 Dec 2025 Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has given details of an updated peace plan that offers Russia the potential withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the east that Moscow has demanded. Giving details of the 20-point plan agreed by US and Ukrainian negotiators in Florida at the weekend, Zelensky said the Russians would respond on Wednesday once the Americans had spoken to them. The 20-point plan is seen as an update of an original 28-point document, agreed by US envoy Steve Witkoff with the Russians several weeks ago, which was widely seen as heavily geared towards the Kremlin's demands.

• Peace negotiations in the Russo-Ukrainian war (2022–present)

  On 7 November, Zelenskyy listed new conditions for negotiating with Russia: "One more time: restoration of territorial integrity, respect for the U.N. charter, compensation for all material losses caused by the war, [and] punishment for every war criminal and guarantees that this does not happen again." Mark Milley, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman, said Ukraine should find a "political solution" with Russia because the war was unwinnable for it by military means; a later New York Times report said that U.S. secretary of state Antony Blinken insisted that Ukraine continue fighting in response to Milley's statement. Ukraine presented the detailed 10-point peace proposal later in November at a G20 meeting. In December, Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba suggested a February [...] On 2 July, Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán before proceeding to visit Russia and China on 5 and 8 July, respectively, self-appointing himself a mediator for ending the war. In August, Ukraine began an offensive into Russia's Kursk oblast "Kursk offensive (2024–present)"); Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said one of the offensive's goals was to "inflict significant tactical defeats" to "convince the Russian Federation to enter into a fair negotiation process", potentially to exchange Russian territory for Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory in a peace settlement. The Kursk offensive disrupted plans for indirect talks in Doha, Qatar, to halt strikes on energy infrastructure in Ukraine "Russian strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure (2022–present)") and in Russia. [...] foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba suggested a February 2023 peace summit at the UN mediated by secretary-general António Guterres to which Russia would only be invited if it faced an international court for war crimes. Later that month, Russian officials said it would only resume peace talks with Ukraine if it recognized Russian sovereignty over the annexed regions. Peskov said in January 2023 that "there is currently no prospect for diplomatic means of settling the situation around Ukraine."

• Zelensky moves towards demilitarised zones in latest peace plan for ...

  Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to be impressed by the kind of compromise being proposed for Donetsk. He said this month that Russia would take control of the entire east of Ukraine by force if Ukrainian troops did not pull out. However, Trump is pushing for a deal to end almost four years of full-scale war and the Ukrainian president believes Russia cannot afford to reject the US plan. "They cannot tell President Trump, 'look we're against a peaceful settlement'," Zelensky told reporters. "If they try to obstruct everything, then President Trump would have to arm us heavily, while imposing all possible sanctions against them." [...] The Russians have insisted that Ukraine pulls out of almost a quarter of its own territory in the eastern Donetsk region in return for a peace deal. The rest is already under Russian occupation. Sensitive issues including questions over territory would have to be resolved "at the leaders' level", but the new draft would provide Ukraine with strong security guarantees and a military strength of 800,000, Zelensky explained. Much of the updated plan resembles what came out of recent talks in Berlin involving US negotiators Witkoff and Jared Kushner with Ukrainian and European leaders. The setting then moved to Miami last weekend where US President Donald Trump's team spoke separately to Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev and then Ukrainian and European officials. [...] Skip to content Watch Live Watch Live # Zelensky moves towards demilitarised zones in latest peace plan for Ukraine Paul KirbyEurope digital editor Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky has given details of an updated peace plan offering Russia the potential withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the east and the creation of a demilitarised zone in their place. Detailing the 20-point plan agreed by US and Ukrainian envoys in Florida at the weekend, Zelensky said the Russians would respond on Wednesday once the Americans had spoken to them. Describing the plan as "the main framework for ending the war", he said it proposed security guarantees from the US, Nato and Europeans for a co-ordinated military response if Russia invaded Ukraine again.