DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s

I have four pieces of advice for people number one get good sleep number two exercise number three diet number four meditation and if you want to do that it's very simple you get the calm meditation app you get the eight sleep sleep you get the fitbod for fitness and then you get G what a gri he's just talking about his Investments those are the four things you focus on the four Essentials you get a good Athena assistant all this is brought to you by my NGO which is Allin NGO USA gave us18 Million last year guys I forgot to tell you about it but don't worry it's an offshore account for all of us when we get back to Ethiopia and Vietnam we have an all-in castle built there okay let your winners [Music] ride David and instead we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it love queen of I'm going all in all right everybody welcome back to the Allin podcast the number one Maga Finance business and personal optimization Health yes we are now larger in the health space then huberman Tim Ferris and uh Peter AA combined yes we've really started to grow the Pod and uh if you want to you can subscribe to the podcast on x.com YouTube Spotify and all those other places especially if you want to have an incredibly positive World enlightening conversation with Ray doio you can tune in too fredberg and Ray doio on the channel great conversation it's gotten three or 400,000 views already on YouTube how's the feedback been Dave got so much great feedback on your ray Doo is it the end of the Empire or were we coming back what's awesome is a lot of the recommendations he shared is becoming policy it seems for the Trump Administration Elon and bessent and others in the administration have echoed trying to get government deficit below 3% of GDP that seems to be the economic magical number and if you can do that rates drop I think that's resonated it was great to have him publish that a couple of weeks ago talk with us about it it's great great bonus content from the team at Allin today we're super excited to have our friend Antonio graas joining the show Antonio is the CEO of Valor Equity partners and he's made some he's made some solid Investments he was one of the First Investors in Tesla SpaceX Athena uh tons of great or he's a second investor in Athena after me uh welcome to the program Antonio he put slightly more in thank you Jason I was also in Uber with you too by the way yes yes I did the you did the series a I believe or the bay what did you do right behind you we were in the bay behind yes you were in the shervin round okay well welcome to the program Antonio graas and uh we've got a full docket today and we might even have a special caller from the White House today no promises but you never know we are 17 days into the Trump 2.0 presidency and seems like the main character gentleman is Doge the department of government efficiency and uh they seem to have found a little known agency us a let's unpack it and talk about us Aid and Doge maybe in three acts the first one let me just uh educate the audience on what US Aid is and then get y'all's General reaction to it most Americans probably haven't heard of us Aid it stands for the United States agency for International Development was established by JFK by an executive order back in 1961 Wall Street Journal summed up its purpose as quote make friends and influence countries in the American interest according to the US gov website the purpose of us Aid is to extend assistance to countries recovering from disaster got a budget of about $45 billion a year under Biden and uh that's about 150 bucks per American per year they have at least 10,000 employees or did and as of 2023 they had programs in 130 countries obviously there's 195 countries in the world and uh the budget doubled under Biden from 26 to 45 the budget was between 15 and 20 billion during Trump's first term but the White House and uh I guess Elon and the Doge team found out about this us aid went in there and found all kinds of interesting spend $2.5 million to fund EV charging station in Vietnam 2 million for sex changes in lgbtq activism in Guatemala 1.5 million to a Serbian lgbtq group 70k for a Dei musical 47k for a trans gender Opera in Columbia uh the Dei musical by the way is in Ireland so if you get if you you make it to Galloway you can see that Dei musical this went on and on and it has become quite a story Antonio you're our guest here this week you and I and saxs and Elon spent a little time at Twitter during the Takeover where I think a lot of these techniques were first put into action your thoughts on what's happening with Doge I mean look Jason first want to thank you guys for having me um it's great to see everyone you g see the musical I like to see music no I booked it we're all going to the what is it called is there actually a name of the musical yeah it's Dei comma the musical oh man it's a heartwarming story I apologize getting a job sorry guys you're not qualified for I apologize yeah so I I think the I think the Doge uh story Maybe starts with the Twitter takeover yeah right so Twitter was spewing the woke mind virus in the world which is why you did it to begin with and you know when we got there as you know it was uh basically breaking even and there's there was going to be 12 and halfish billion dollars a 10 of the company so a billion half dollar in interest costs that there was no money to pay um which led to the turnaround I think which was the biggest turnaround like of all time literally the biggest turnaround I think ever in history second biggest Tech deal ever done 80% of the people gone that doesn't include all the contractors that were there and you know the company's now servicing its debt and they just priced yesterday their one of their Bank deals at 97 cents so this is a huge win means the company's doing extremely well other people bought the bank debt and that then the bank debt traded up to a little over 98 so 98 and 58 you know a giant business success a rousing business success and Jason you were there for part of it you saw it it was a disaster U this place was you know it was tampons in the bathrooms and every woke thing you could possibly imagine and no one in the office uh that the it was so bad that the pens had gone dry in the conference rooms which is is incredible and I think that you know that's how the so you mean the pens had gone dry because they were never being used or because they were being used so much they were never been used we got there on the yeah the Halloween weekend and we started whiteboarding and you know no next 10 no ink yeah I mean everything it was it's incredible and but but uh flowers were impeccable food being made fresh every day for thousands of people and thrown away um three times a day toss in the garbage we didn't give it to the homeless it was just it was shockingly bad bureaucracy gone mad bad Inc is people don't care so it was both I think this turned into two things one was just stop the W mine virus you know the interesting thing is U the the they do external brand safety checks there now and they have 99% rating in brand safety U now right so stock the wus going in the world number one number two fix the company and both have happened it's been a couple years now right three years now and both have happened um not even three years two and a half years really and both have happened and I think you take that that that was sort of the warm-up act for what's going on at Doge which is you know the president United States um president Trump wants to make America great again and that I think begins with making the government great and you got to fix it it's a turnaround this is the biggest turnaround of all time and president Trump has the uh courage to do it and he's got a great Ally in Elon to make it happen in Doge and so the numbers are pretty easy right um we're spending uh 6 and half trillion we bring in 4 and half trillion we got to find $2 trillion somewhere interest cost a trillion doll a year the bond markets were going up the the long Bond was going up a lot because people did believe that we couldn't stop spending creating inflation you see those trading down now as doge is starting to take effect people see it's real the stuff you're talking about it's sort it's sort of extraordinary what's happening and the you know El said this public right fraud waste and abuse he think it's kind of 10% of the budget is probably fraud I think it might be low actually so you're talking about you know 6 650 billion a trillion in waste I think that's probably about right that alone fixes the problem but really serious about it Jason for me and what scared me when I when we first started thinking about this look and I'm not there full-time you know I'm uh in and out a little bit and and trying to help where I can but I'm not there fulltime um when I thought when this started I thought we had a democracy that it turned into bureaucracy okay what I'm afraid of now is we have a bureaucracy that is about to turn into a kleptocracy I mean a Latin American style kleptocracy okay the stuff you're talking about that is pure fraud and you're make making some jokes out of it the DI musical but if you go into the data that's coming out of usid what you find is you know there's a lot of political contributions going on their Politico itself being funded by usaid I mean that is pure corruption that's like a lad style autocracy and we cannot let it go there I mean I think we I think this happened just in a good time and I'm super grateful to all the people there there's you know 80 plus people there all Patriots gone full-time okay so chamath you've been watching this you hear from Antonio what's your general take on what we saw in the first I don't know 20 days of Doge or no 15 days sorry it's 15 days of Doge so let me try to give you a little bit of historical context because I think that that's important I think whenever I hear so many people breathlessly saying some version of WTF as if this is totally new it's not new and I'll give you two examples but one that I really want to double click on the two examples I'll give you is that in 1941 The Truman committee was formed because there was a fear that the spending by the defense department was completely out of whack and over the next six or seven years and this is really what gave Truman The credibility to them become Roosevelt's vice president was they found incredible levels of waste Fraud and Abuse during the war before the war effort and then after Pearl Harbor during the war process over seven years that committee and this is in$ 1941 they were tasked and budgeted with only 20 or $30,000 okay over the next six years they spent less than a million inflation adjusted to 2023 this is where I found the data was about 65 million they spent you know how much they SA it's estimated they saved somewhere between1 to 15 billion in 1941 that's a quarter of a trillion 2023 the second example is we did this under President Clinton and that was called the National Partnership for Reinventing government so the first thing that I think it's important to acknowledge is this is not new we've done Doge twice before both have been successful the Harry Truman one was incredibly important because it really set guardrails for how this can be done everything in that committee it was a senate committee was unanimous so it was Republicans and Democrats that found waste Fraud and Abuse everywhere they saved an enormous amount of money the second which is interesting is these last two versions of Doge were driven and led by democrats the same people today who are basically saying hey hold on a second we have congression committees or we have inspector generals and they lack the awareness to know that their own party was the driving force for this two times before and I think it's important to just acknowledge that those methods are not good anymore right because I think what we're finding early days is the rot is super pervasive there's no accountability and so I think you need people to look at it with fresh eyes and what is Doge at the end of the day what they are are read only Auditors of the truth and the press secretary in the White House made this very clear it's incredible the power that readon access gives you all it allows you to do is just take the data and present the data they can't manipulate it and what they're able to do is publish all of this stuff in real time and that's why this is so important because if it went into a congressional committee to be honest with you it would sit there and stew for six seven eight nine months you would maybe get small little tidbits of it but now instead you're just getting the full thrust of it and what is the biggest thing that I find concerning I think it's what Antonio said which is that the media who are supposed to be this intermediary layer that's totally objective between the government and the people were not independent at all but had all kinds of hidden incentives $8 million to politicos several million dollars to the BBC I think it's important to ask what's going on and by the way that also has historical context this is exactly what happened in the 60s and 70s where it turned out that record companies were paying DJs to pay songs there was a huge set of lawsuits and trial cases and the result was a change in the law right and we call that Peola now which is you cannot take this money without disclosing it and so had this money been absorbed these entities and actually disclosed maybe we'd be okay but Nick I sent you a link maybe you can throw it on the screen for these guys it's is a very simple manifestation of this cycle we talked about this guys and we didn't realize how connected it all was but we were asking ourselves during the election cycle last year why are all these articles buried why aren't we really getting the truth and it turns out that the people who were responsible for telling the truth somewhere along the chain were koled or just told not to tell the truth influenced by all of this back Channel money that was going back and forth from the government to these folks okay yeah let me just give some numbers to uh what you were referencing there the US Aid organization has been giving money uh as have other agencies to journals databases and subscriptions there's probably some amount of that that makes sense however when we look at this during Trump 1 spend on political was averaging around 1.3 million a year but it suddenly ballooned up to 8 million a year under Biden and you can see the quarterly payments here on this chart so there's some normal amount to spend on Publications or for a library at an organization and so what we're looking here is all federal agencies and suddenly during Biden there is a very suspicious ramp up in spend to Politico all of this is breaking a lot of this hasn't been verified yet so we'll we'll put that caveat on it and then there is a number of 34 million that's been floating around that's all years back to 2008 not just 2024 less people have that number ju supposed or or or um misattributed when political was acquired back in 2021 they were doing about 200 million in Revenue so this would be about 4% of their revenue it's pretty significant the BBC also received 2.7 million in funding from us Aid in 2023 that was 8% of their annual income that's a little suspicious Thompson Reuters which is the Consulting arm of Reuters they've received 120 million dollar from the federal government since 2011 that's got to be looked at and double clicked on and uh half of that came during the Biden Administration New York Times hasn't actually received all that much 370k from the federal government last year under Biden it went from 100K a year to like 300 so the the New York Times data has been cleaned up a little bit all of this is to say there's spending going on with the press that certainly doesn't look good and should be verified and challenged obviously and we are in a breaking news environment so we'll see how that information shakes out over time which is one of the great things I think about Doge is they're getting this information out there and citizen journalists are uh looking at public databases freedberg and uh we're having a conversation about this a conversation two years ago freedberg when you kept harping on every episode about our debt and uh you know about the interest payments two or three years ago you were way ahead of the curve and now here we are we didn't think anybody would ever take this cause up and now it is the cause of the moment what are your thoughts on the first two weeks of Doge Friedberg magnificent okay magnificent I mean what else is there to say emoi yeah this is the eggplant Emoji it's what we needed if you zoom out on what doge is doing I think the best way to describe it is zero BAS budgeting and in organizations that go through zerob based budgeting you do a cycle typically annually where you take all of your opacs all of your expenses and running a company or running an organization down to the studs you take it down to zero and you rebuild it up and you say what are we trying to achieve this year from first principles based on that set of objectives those goals what do we need to do what's the minimal expense we need to run you don't start with last year's numbers and say what else do we need to do and start to add on top of that you really do a hard level high degree of scrutiny on every dollar move out and that's what doge is effectively doing they're doing a zero based budgeting on the federal government they're looking at every line item and they're asking the fundamental question which I don't think we talk about in the public discourse enough which is what is the essential role of government and there is a great debate to be had around that point should government be providing humanitarian Aid in international markets that's a good debate to be had should the government be providing security to Nations that can't provide security for themselves does the US government have a role in that should the government be providing loans for people to go to sh universities should the government be providing loans for people to buy homes that are overpriced etc etc etc and as we start to ask the questions of how we're spending money I think it ends up leading to the most important questions which is what is the essential role of government which I think is the debate that needs to be had in order for the Democracy to last so I'm very happy to see the effort of Doge and I think that it's the beginning of what I hope will be kind of a long-term process of asking the fundamental questions about essential government and and Antonio zerob based budgeting was the first thing you sort of introduced when the Twitter takeover happened just what do we need in terms of design what does the sales team need to hit these sales numbers how many servers do we need and my Lord the waste Fraud and Abuse at that company was shocking they had buildings that were $100 a square foot if I remember correctly that were used for storage of the furniture from the previous building that had been upgraded and were storing them in class A office space you reference the commissary 20 people were having lunch a day but they had never ratcheted down the amount of food they were making so each meal was about $800 on average when you when you did the math for those 20 meals just in the San Francisco office maybe you could talk a little bit about how the the shock and awe campaign of just freezing spending and then seeing hey what actually is necessary to accomplish this task worked out at at Twitter and then how you see that being executed uh you know inside of our government yeah thanks Jason it was I was pretty extraordinary actually the um you know the Twitter experience the first thing you do in a turn like that is try and get the checkbook and just turn payments off and then see what happens because there are lot of people that shouldn't be getting paid and sometimes they complain and sometimes you find the people that complain the loudest are the ones who are could in the worst fraud they're the worst frauders in the whole in the whole game right the worst grifters are the ones who are saying they're crying uh the most Amar of foul and the problem at least in Twitter there were financial statements like we could actually there was an audit financial statement and they were basically you know they were't some ways correct I would say uh there were some issues with the with the user growth Dows Etc the incen plans but the actual like you know the cash FL numbers were pretty much correct here the problem is much much deeper and it makes this zero based budgeting question much harder which is the way the government works uh a department just basically asks for money from Treasury and they send it out we all run businesses there's a Reconciliation process you you have a contract you isue a PO against it something comes in you check that it came in Services is rendered and then you issue a payable and then you know some a month later you pay it right that doesn't happen to the US government there is that that process is broken it used to happen it's broken now and so literally money is Flowing out I used to ask myself question why are the numbers always revised why are they always wrong how can the government know how much money it's SP just hit the button in the computer and figure it out problem is that button doesn't exist you know we spent time early on I was uh Mar with trying to track through like how does the money actually flow we no one could tell us how it actually flows where is it going out people didn't know and it's totally crazy and it's the reason all go through treasury Antonio or like can you just explain that to us well so I will try to explain to you I'm not sure I have full command of it I'm not sure anyone does quite yet it goes to treasury ultimately but it was supposed to flow through the way it was supposed to work in the it was changed in the 70 in the 70s in 1973 the Nixon administration at in 71 let me go back they came off the gold standard which allowed deficits in 73 at the nater of the Nixon presidency Congress took away from the presidency the executive power this thing called the porit which was the power of the executive to stop spending so Nixon was abusing it by stoping he didn't want and so Congress took away from him what that means today is the executive as he reaches in it's very hard to just stop payments so what's happening is the the government is is put in a process where they would just have an an authorized executive kind of stamp a bill that got paid that broke and I don't know when it broke but it broke sometime so the money flow now department gets a budget authorized to it uh by Congress it goes to om om allocates the budget that department then just sends a money request to treasury to pay it is reconciled against what happened this is one of the reasons and that's it there's no there's no there's no controller there's no controller function like there is in a normal company 100% there is no control there is no controller there's no reconciliation the reason they can't pass audits okay there the reason this happens is because you can't audit something you haven't reconciled you the only audit that I've seen is actually from the Social Security Administration and when you read it I've got one of pars who have read the thing uh it has it's just riddled material weaknesses that you think there are individuals that have made like millions or billions of dollars from Mis payments overseas like is this kind of what's gone on in the missing money in Ukraine do you think like it's kind of found its way to the wrong places yeah I mean so what I would I don't know what happened Ukraine I don't crazy story yeah it is shocking about Ukraine I will say that I have business experience trying to work in businesses that had Medicaid and Medicaid medicare's payments I wanted to make that better right we Weist to make the world better and we just stopped cuz we sound we found so much fraud I mean I'm I'm certain we literally have a rule here a government pay or in in those areas if it's more than like a third of the business we don't do it and in the services space this is this is why we just s we found continuous fraud in the companies we're looking at investing in yeah just threading these things together you know you the really interesting thing with the Twitter pausing of payments was you know at some point we were in a meeting you know at 1:00 a.m. on a Saturday and it was like hey let's turn the credit cards off to see what bounces and uh you know what happens and then of course we start getting calls and people started routing obviously because they knew saaks was there you were there I was there hey you know a company who I shared an investor with or you know in another company said hey you know we're not getting paid for this and it was like some SAS software that nobody was using Etc so you start figuring out to your point okay is this software even being used there was so much software and services that had been paid that nobody had ever logged in to set up so it was just being paid as pure graph now you said Antonio correctly the people who come first like they're probably the ones who are in on the biggest grift because hey you know I I figured out how to grift this money how us Aid got to the top of the Doge list I think is one of the most interesting aspects of this story so if you remember on January 21st Trump decided he would do a bunch of executive orders right and one of them was to pause foreign aid for 90 days okay this seems reasonable we got to take care of our country that was part of his mandate for becoming the 47th president of the United States so couple of days later the White House said hey this us a leadership is trying to circumvent the executive order they're in other words they're just going to keep paying people even though the executive order came out that alerted the Doge team so Elon confirmed this on X he said quote all Doge did was check to see which federal organizations were violating the president's executive orders the most turned out to be us Aid so that became our focus and according to NBC security officials at USA tried to prevent Doge from even getting into the building or accessing the systems to your point Antonio the person probably who's got the most to hide is the one who's going to fight the most over the weekend Doge gained access to us Aid and then people started tweeting out all of this you know crazy spend and things that any American who looks at it and says wait a second if we haven't fixed the goddamn water in Flint Michigan why are we sending money to gallway or in Ireland to do a Dei musical this makes no sense and that's I think the key piece of this Antonio is can you win the hearts and minds of Americans because some of this stuff I don't know if it's legal or it's not legal or it's against protocol or it is protocol we're going to find out there's been tons of of legal um cases and lawsuits that have been filed but to your point this is how Elon found out about usaid J let me ask you a question where where does that place you in your political philosophy around the importance of Human Rights abroad great great question you know I've always felt that uh the West should act in unison and if the United States is the greatest economy or the strongest we should lead there is something called the Universal Declaration of Human Rights the United States Elanor Roosevelt uh wrote this at the UN and everybody tries to hit those notes I think it's great that we try to reduce suffering in the world but I think we should be doing it not unilaterally and not to try to manipulate governments and that's the piece of this that us Aid is obviously a grift where people are trying to steal money for their pet projects and I don't think they're acting in unison and above board to look and say okay where's the most suffering in the world how can we help that you know that that to me seems like a noble thing to do and if the United States has the budget to help fight AIDS in Africa or you know poverty you there's a chance that some of these human rights issues were embellished to try to get more money well I do think the you know I I did this tweet recently so yes is the answer if you look at Amnesty International Amnesty International where I worked was one of my first jobs they were work working on people who were imprisoned tortured raped murdered systematic murder of dissidents for freedom of speech freedom of assembly religion Etc and then somewhere along the line you know the Amnesty International was tweeting about trans rights and that's the big Focus this is a very small amount of you know people on the planet and I don't think that those human rights violations in any way relate to the tragedy we're seeing of people being murdered tortured raped and caned and and beheaded in certain places in the world so there there is a way to look at suffering and say we should handle this first and yes somebody who you know uh feels they got misgendered maybe that's way down the priority list compared to systematic rape of women in these you know War zones those will be the high order bits and so this thing has gotten the other fascinating thing I think about USA which I like to get your thoughts on too jamath is at what point did this switch from being the the left saying we should not intervene right the left's position always in the 8S 90s when we were growing up was we shouldn't be doing these operatives in other countries we should let democracy flow let these countries figure it out for themselves we shouldn't be doing Empire building we shouldn't be doing imperialism and then all of a sudden now it's just such a Griff that I think everybody's got their hands in the pie lindsy Grahams on some nonprofit that gets money from this I don't know if that's above board or not everybody a lot of people who are formally in government seem to be part of this NGO train so the whole thing just turned out to be a grift and it's a bipartisan grift obviously I think the INF I think the biggest thing that we will have to confront is that many of the things that we thought were issues or problems may have actually been somewhat embellished because of this money cycle sure and I think that that's going to cause a lot of people to feel really they'll probably feel really foolish about some of the decisions they made all the attempts at cancellation are going to look really dumb in hindsight yeah all right ni some gra to our friend David saaks here who's coming online okay here he is David and and the one thing I want to uh point out this goes way back I think maybe more than a decade ago David tried to explain to me that neocons had taken over American foreign policy and they were well your question about why did the Democrats change Why did Republicans change Etc the neocons took over foreign policy in both sides Democrats and Republicans and populated out this very activist muster stance which is bad for America and I think Jason that answerers your question as to why the Democrat shifted all right with us is David Sachs how you doing brother are are you literally in the white house I'm in the uh EOB ah okay there's like a podcast Studio actually in the EOB oh fantastic and you're wearing a suit every day yeah know you're right I have to wear a suit and tie every day I was just listening on your your conversation about Doge jakeob I'm surprised that you never figured out a way to get involved in this USA I mean everybody's on the take except you what's going I had known I would have started an NGO where's my NGO you had everything except the money laundering you had the grip you had the virtue signaling you had it all except act money let me uplevel this for a second okay so we knew the US government runs a $2 trillion deficit every year we're in debt almost $40 trillion and we also knew that anytime anyone tries to cut anything in Washington the whole city screams bloody murder okay so the question is just Why well now we know the money is all going to them it's like round tripping to them New York Times getting paid Politico getting paid bill Crystal perennial warmonger getting paid Ukraine getting paid like 11 out of 12 Publications Ukraine getting paid incredible Victor Orban who's the Prime Minister of Hungary was saying that he's very popular in Hungary his political opposition funded by usaid in Poland the leftwing political opposition funded by usaid and on and on and on it goes BBC BBC you wonder why everyone in the UK so yeah yeah believe the BBC is getting paid every leftwing organization in the world seems to be getting paid by this slush fund at usaid which disperses about 50 billion a year that's a billion dollars a week that's actually a lot of money and so it it just it makes you wonder you know the left in general tries to portray itself as a movement of the people that it's Grassroots this is the exact opposite this is AstroTurf this is basically money coming from the top down out of Washington to fund all these groups maybe not even in the United States like all over the world so it makes you wonder what is the real level of local support for these leftwing policies all over the world yeah crazy so you did a big announcement this week on crypto and creating a framework finally I I caught some of it maybe you could just tell us you know from the bottom up what is the Mandate from the president and what is your advice to him on how to make crypto move out of the Shadows offshore icos craziness to legitimacy what's the plan here to legitimize and regulate crypto well the the plan was really spelled out by President Trump and his week one EO on crypto and it's all spelled out in there the principal Administration on crypto the president said he wants to support the responsible use and growth of digital assets and blockchains across every sector of the economy so the principles are all there and yesterday I was invited up to Capitol Hill to meet with the the chairman of the important committees that will be that basically govern crypto and so we had a conference there to announce the legislative plan you can see there there's chairman Tim Scott who's the chair of the Senate Banking Committee to my left and then to my right is french hill who's the chairman of the house Financial Services committee and then to his right is John Boseman who's the chair of the Senate agriculture committee and then to the left of Tim Scott is um GT Thompson who's the chair of the house agriculture committee he's out of frame right now now but those are the four committees that govern crypto and you may ask why is the agriculture Committee involved in crypto and the reason is because the ad committee supervises the cftc the Commodities Futures Trading Commission because Commodities all came out of Agriculture so it's interesting you need four committees across the House and Senate to get legislation done on crypto it's not just House and Senate it's actually two committees in each of the House and Senate and so this is the first time where we've had had four chairman of the four key committees all come together and say that they're ready to support crypto legislation there were a lot of people on a who felt like this wasn't you know a mind-blowing announcement they wanted something that they could trade on right away that's not what this was this was basically a statement of commitment from the chairs of the four committees that we're going to get legislation done this year maybe in the next six months I mean that's really the goal and we've never had that before so that is pretty Monumental I used to work in this because when I first launched climate Court back in the day we actually were selling commodity contracts online so we we set ourselves up as an exempt commodity trading platform and I so I I remember all this old legislation there was the commodity Futures modernization act if I remember when they deregulated the energy Market but one of the features of the commodity features modernization Act was that they created this concept of an exempt commodity contract which was where you're not delivering a physical good and that's basically what weather derivatives were and energy derivatives and other kind of indices were created that didn't have a tangible physical Supply and it was still kind of shoveled in the uh in the Commodities world that's why the legacy of all this stuff kind of sitting with agriculture is that the way this is likely going to move forward is it's going to look like a new extension of exempt Commodities and kind of treated like that versus being Securities the question you're describing is called Market structure you know what are the definitions going to be because digital assets can be many things you can have some digital assets are cryptocurrencies they're actually currencies then there's things that are crypto Securities then there's things that are Commodities Bitcoin actually is regulated as a commodity right now and then you've got things that aren't Securities or Commodities they're like Collectibles you know like nfts things like that so there's all these different categories and one of the things that the market needs is just Clarity around the definition so that Founders know what the rules of Road are and they can actually just comply with that so giving them those definitions and describing how a crypto project could start for example as a security and eventually the protocol could become decentralized enough or maybe it becomes a commodity that whole idea that's called Market structure and there was a bill in the last Congress by french hill who is the chair of the house Financial Services committee now that passed the house with 71 Democratic um votes so was fairly bipartisan but then it went nowhere in the Senate because frankly the bank committee at that time was run by shered Brown who was anti- crypto so it got stopped in the Senate right away now we have Republican control of the Senate and Tim Scott's the new chair of the Senate Banking Committee and he's expressed support so I think now we could get a bill on Market structure like fit21 again which was fren shills Bill last Congress I think we could do a revised and updated version this Congress and that was one of the things they all that the chairman expressed support for so I think there's a pretty good chance we could get this done in the next six months what's the opposition sax I guess it feels to me like with the market structure question being addressed and answered you would have also more protection for consumers because now businesses know the rules of the road they follow them the structure that protects consumers etc etc why would people be opposed to moving this forward moving the legislation forward getting this all behind us well I think this is an area where there's a really good chance of having bipartison support we did in the last Congress like I mentioned that the house bill got over 70 Democratic votes I think in the Senate we're going to need seven votes seven Democrat votes to get to 60 right which is the number you need if you don't go through the reconciliation process and I think there's a good chance this passes with significant Democratic support as well as Republican it's not going to be unanimous or anything like that because there are still forces that are hostile to crypto in Washington and do you think it's going to be a discret bill or do you I I mean it seems like you're going to have to get a border security and energy and budget bill passed so it seems like everything's looking towards reconciliation in which case would this be an ad junk like a like an add-on the the question is what you can get through reconciliation so in order for a bill to go through the reconciliation process where you only need basically 50 votes it has to have a budgetary impact or predominantly a budgetary impact I think it's called the bird Rule and that rule was definitely pushed pretty hard in the last Administration you remember that the bid Administration got the inflation reduction Act passed through reconciliation and all those subsidies for clean energy or whatever so they've opened the window pretty wide on what can go through reconciliation but that's the question there's one other bill that I think is going to move pretty quickly here too so I just mentioned the market structure Bill the other area is stable coins and Senator Hagerty he's on the Banking Committee he just released a stable coin bill there's counterparts in the house and what the four chairman indicated is actually they're going to take up stable coins first and then Market structure will follow very quickly so I think we could see a stable coin bill pass Congress in the next several months sax I guess the question is the SEC was and Gary Gensler were the blocker previously with crypto and they just said Hey listen there's an existing set of rules here just follow those rules obviously those rules don't exactly apply to the Innovation happening in crypto so the question I think after stable coins which feels like a layup and and a great place to start that'll be a great early win and it just makes people I guess that would just reinforce the dollar Supremacy right if it's tied to the dollar so that's good for America but maybe you could talk to protecting consumers because we all saw in the first couple of generations of crypto all kinds of griffs and icos and things that were never delivered so how do you balance those two things protecting consumers who may get really enthusiastic about this versus you know people who might try to Prey Upon them well the first thing you want to do if you're going to protect consumers is you want to bring the activity on Shore okay because obviously when all the activity gets driven offshore then it's hard for Regulators to supervise it and moreover it's hard for the market to know who's a good actor who's a bad actor what's a good project what's a bad project so the first thing you want to do is have the Innovation happen onshore in the United States by the way it's probably not a coincidence that the biggest fraud in the history of crypto which was FTX was based in the Bahamas yeah probably little bit of a tell a little bit of a tell and it'll be an even stronger tell when the good projects feel like they can come back into the United States and then you've got the Shady ones in the Bahamas or in other countries that they're going to stick out like a sore thumb everyone's going to be able to understand that oh those guys are too shady to operate in the United States so the number one thing we need to do is just bring the Innovation on Shore in terms of the framework I think the market structure bill is going to Define here's a security here's a commodity here's what you have to do here are the disclosure requirements around creating a crypto project so all of that will be in the bill and then in the meantime the SEC has created a new task force under Hester Pur who's a sec commissioner and she is already starting to do work in that regard to define a better regime at the SEC for crypto projects you mentioned that gendler said that the sec's doors were open to crypto companies and they should come in and talk to us and work with us that was very disingenuous crypto companies would tell me they would go see the SEC the SEC would tell them nothing about what the rules were but they would have enforcement people in those meetings just writing down everything they would say and the next day they would get sent a well notice so the truth is the SEC was not cooperating they were not providing any Clarity they were just honeypotting Founders basically to come in and then they would immediately investigate them I mean it was really terrible look we expect Founders to play by the rules and abide by the law and be compliant but when you won't tell them what the rules are and then you prosecute them there's no fair way for them to comply so the most important thing is to give them a framework I think the SEC now is doing that they're starting to do that already and then legislatively we're going to have a bill that does that uh moving through Congress over the next few months this is absolutely awesome we're super encouraged that you're doing this and uh we really appreciate you coming on the Pod uh wish you could participate in the other three or four crazy discussions we're about to have but we understand you've got to stay focused on the mission uh anything on the AI front that we can look forward to in the coming weeks that you're working on I know that's the other part of your mission well the big thing is like I talked about last time the president rescinded the Biden EO which was this 100 page monstrosity of burn some regulation on our AI companies I think that decision's been proven even more right in the wake of deep seek because we know that China has basically caught up or they're very very close to catching up it felt like that Biden EO is written in a vacuum in which the US was the only player in Ai and that if we imposed a bunch of burns some rules on our companies that somehow that wouldn't allow China to catch up right and I think it's pretty clear that China is very very competitive if we R AI companies is going to run down to China's benefits so I think that was a very good decision and what the president said in his EO is that we should devise a new AI action plan to replace that by Neo and we're working on that right now all right d any fun anecdotes from Doge you want to share I'll give you one anecdote which is I've been working late here a number of nights at the EOB and I won't tell you where the Doge guys are based but you know I know where their office is so I just went by there to say hi the whole room was full of young coders I think they were engineers but they're wearing like suits and ties so that's a little different but they were all working really late I mean they're working there late up Friday night and the facilities people don't know what to do because they've never had people like asked to stay late on before so they've had to create new uh new facilities access for for these guys they're like you're coming to the office and doing work we don't have a protocol for that what how does that work we gonna need to get you a he you're a badge to come to the building yeah uh well it's absolutely awesome to see the progress you're making in the first two weeks and continued success we're so proud of the effort all right thanks guys all right do you guys think the Democrats are going to lose people over their opposition to Doge like is Doge really viewed as oppositional to Democrat party interests this is for the average person it's a war Shack TK I think the thing is that there was a coalition that the Democrats had and there was a coalition that the Republicans had the Republicans did a better job of reforming that Coalition and now I think what you're going to see is a shrinking I actually got this totally wrong I don't know if you remember a couple years ago but my thought at the time was if the Republicans don't figure out how to fix themselves they were going to go and lose for the next 10 or 15 years and the reason I said that was they would walk into every M term and they would just get their ass handed to them but I think they figured it out that this is sort of this thing that I've been thinking about a lot is there's a fight in Western societies and it's a pendulum between labor and capital and it used to be the thought the conventional wisdom was that the Republicans were Pro capital and Democrats were pro- labor and the Brilliance of trump is he took over the Republican party and made it totally populist which is to say Pro labor and the crazy thing about the Democrats is that they are the most sophisticated Liars because if you look at what happened under Biden you had record high stock markets so it was purely in favor of asset owners record high deficits record high illegal immigration record high wage suppression all of these things are massively Pro Capital but they tried to present themselves as Pro labor that entire ruse is now being undone and all of this data what that does is it'll it'll consolidate the Democrats to a shell of their former self it'll take a year or 18 months but I think unless they figure out how to totally hard reset they're going to be in a really difficult struggle to find a cohort of people Beyond 15 or 20% of the population for a long time well and it's so dumb to come out against waste Fraud and Abuse so the best argument that Democrats had it seems was that oh my God people's Social Security numbers or people's privacy was being violated because they went in and looked at the data and how the money was raed wasted this is the like height of not getting the point and not reading the room 100% of Americans don't want their tax payments stolen they don't care if you looked at their social security number this isn't a privacy issue that doge is looking at some database and that's that's what AOC and Schumer were doing oh my God these people are looking at your social security number they have access to your records who cares what matters is how much money is being stolen from the American public and anyone at any point in time could have picked up this issue this has been going on I think you pointed out the last time somebody really addressed this in Earnest was Clinton so this has been going on Obama Trump 1.0 Biden everybody has been raising the debt all of this grift has been going on and it's only this time around that somebody picked up the free money and said here's an issue now we uh we see what happens when somebody picks up the issue of stop wasting money it is a popular issue this is only going to make Trump more popular so Jason I I um G add what you and Jamal said I think you're both right I'm give you a very concrete example Ram Emanuel is now back from Japan okay he was Chief of Staff in both the Democratic white houses post uh Rose um Clinton and Obama and he wrote an oped this weekend this past weekend um that basically said the Democrats have lost their way because they have forgotten what he calls kitchen table issues the things people regular people care about and jamat you're right I mean the the reality is um they forgot about inflation they forgot that inflation is terrible for the average person it's terrible for middle class America it's okay for people that own productive assets because they just go up in value but it's terrible for people that are wage earners and that have any savings it's terrible for older people that are living off savings terrible you know Rob makes this point that if the Democrats are going have to are going to reconformation [Music] because of all of these other issues so they have no home there is no base from which to build from right now unless they go through a great reset and part of it is that they have to understand that they are actually not pro labor they are have been Pro Capital but that requires such a Schism from the deepest Believers of the democratic party who thought you know Eat the Rich you wear it on your dress it's so important to you in fact actually you were feeding the rich you just and the that you didn't even know that is just pathetic yeah what's funny is that you know Marg thater famous has said that the problem of socialism you eventually run out of other people's money and you run deficits right and you destroy the country this happened in Venezuela this is always the end of socialism it's how it it's how it finishes it's how the movie ends we've seen it around the world just look look South into South America we were heading that direction that's what I said earlier we I was I'm afraid we might become a kleptocracy if this doesn't stop and I'm so grateful to all the great Patriots of Doge and the government the president for making it happen cuz we were heading that direction so the Democratic party is lost they'll continue to be lost interesting thing came up this week on Monday president Trump signed an executive order laying out a plan to establish the first Sovereign wealth fund for the United States for those of you who don't know a sovereign wealth fund is essentially an investment fund for a country it's almost universally based on natural resources so Norway Saudi UAE they all have uh Australia sovereign weal funds based upon minerals or typically oil the United States is not known for having the oil reserves of the Saudis or UAE or Norway this public investment fund would be apparently anchored by potentially The Tick Tock shares that Trump said he wanted to get half of by giving a license a lot of that is uh unclear what this license would be it's never existed but this is the concept the treasury secretary and Commerce Secretary have been tasked with developing a plan over the next 90 days and uh the plan should include quote recommendations for funding mechanisms investment Strategies Fund structure and a governance model chamath you were tweeting about this what is the point of having a sovereign wealth Fund in the United States if we're 36 trillion in debt shouldn't we just pay down I I think it's not where this money going to come from yeah well it's not an either or thing and I think the point is that if there are assets that are minted effectively overnight which I think the 50% share of Tik Tok would be so call it1 $150 billion doar the question is what should you do with it and who should govern it and I think this idea that if you had a group of five Elder Statesmen so I'm just going to throw some names out there David terer Stan ruen Miller Ken Griffin John dor or Mike morritz Bill gross or some other Bond guy my point is what you get are five people that are very sophisticated across all Market categories one of them could be the rotating CEO for some number of years people should rotate in and rotate out these are unpaid jobs because everybody that has these slots should be Mega billionaires so they shouldn't be doing it for their own personal advancement and they should deploy that Capital so as you sell down the Tik Tok shares maybe as you sell Federal lands and you generate more oil Revenue take it all and invest it on behalf of America into American companies I think that's a great incredible idea Antonio you think the government should be in this business so I have I I think it I think it should but and I agree with shth uh that the governance is very very important I think he's got a good idea there I think it for a different reason is that we don't have an industrial policy in America uh many of our competitors around the world in particular China have a long-term industrial policy and they put enormous amounts of capital behind the industrial policy uh a sovereign wealth fund I think would be a stealthy way to create industrial policy in America so rather mean industrial policy in this context so example in China they want to they want to build chip Fabs and they want to catch up to to uh tsmc so what do they do they take the dollars of Trade Surplus they get from US every year and they pour back into making that stuff inside their country and for decades part of the problem we've had with China is that capital is free because the banking system just pushes money out to manufacturers and they move the manufacturing because the WTO from the US to China that's the industrial policy people say the Chinese have a long-term 100-year Vision the way it's it manifests is this industrial policy we don't have that here at all and we try to do it we do like the chips act and it goes through Commerce we have government bureaucrats deciding how to spend $200 billion to modernize Intel which needs to happen I mean I'd much rather have Ken Griffin Bill gross any of the guys choth mentioned deciding okay we have five Industries in America we want to invest in let's make great Investments right I mean let's make great Investments for America they got to be economic they got they got to make money for us but they got to be good for the country I think that's what most these Sovereign wealth funds do some of them make portfolio Investments but many of them like the The Sovereign wealth Fund in Saudi Arabia the piff they're making enormous Investments domestically to remake the economy you know toward tourism example and I think this is a great idea they're literally building CI in neom they've got you know a dozen cities being constructed and trying to take an oil economy and shift it to a tourism economy a technology economy a private Equity economy Antonio is totally right like Scott bessent part of his Congressional testimony you guys probably saw this was he laid out this thing that he has that's called the 333 plan right in the 333 plan says we want to see GDP growth of 3% we want to see deficits that are no greater than 3% and we want to have 3 million Bears of oil right produced domestically in the United States but if you double click on that if you look at the total energy reserves in the United States they're three times greater than the total energy reserves of Saudi Arabia three times across all forms so not just oil if you oil not gas plus coal if we actually go as Antonio said towards an industrial policy that's pro-energy where the incremental cost of energy is effectively zero where we want just a gross abundance of electrons flowing in America for all the great ideas that could pop up it is by definition going to generate an enormous amount of revenue for the federal government and so I think having the Sovereign wealth fund be the rainy day fund if you will right that can Bank a percentage of all of that I think starts to do a lot of really good for the long-term strategic guidance of the US freberg what do you think here is this something where we're making the government too big and now we've got the government competing with black rock and seoa and Andre and harowitz and they're going to be on the board of technology companies and energy companies and investing in it and then what happens when you know Obama Biden Trump Bush you get different people running these things and then they want to do their pet projects it seems to me like this could be get awfully conflicted awfully quick what do you think should this be a business or government's in I think one of the things the government sucks at is capitalism so I wouldn't make capitalis the Mandate of a sovereign wealth fund certainly not when we have $4 trillion of federal debt it doesn't make economic sense our cost of capital is 5% that's how much the interest is on this 10 to 30e debt right now so it's very hard to actually make real risk adjusted returns when our cost of capital is so high so I don't think the Mandate should be hey let's put a bunch of capital in a pool go and invest it and try and make money for the United States that seems silly but my point about the government being really bad at capital is is that the United States government owns and has access to and will acquire through other means significant assets and resources that should be monetized in a smarter way and so I would kind of think about the Sovereign wealth fund as being more of a strategic vehicle for monetization of high value government assets so for example if Trump does actually negotiate a 50% Equity position in Tik Tock us that needs to sit somewhere it should not sit in the department of whatever it should sit with a capitalist manager that then ultimately makes the decision on when and how to monetize that asset return that cash to the treasury and pay down the debt similarly the US has large amounts of land has access to other large assets that get transferred in seizures etc etc so you know I don't know if you guys remember all this but there was like bit Bitcoin seizures that have happened over the years is the government has cracked down on criminal Enterprises then the government owns this Bitcoin do you think the smartest people are making the decisions on where and how to sell down that Bitcoin I guarantee you not I would much rather have a capitalist making that decision so I would view the you know the The Sovereign wealth fund being less about raise capital from other means in the government which effectively means borrowing money through treasuries because of the the debt level we have and trying to invest it and much more being about okay what strategic assets can the US government monetize and use this as the mechanism for doing that and then ultimately I think the objective should be to return that capital I I do think there's also an opportunity for managing Social Security in a smarter way so Social Security's functionally going to be bankrupt in eight years the way the trust is set up the cash that's there the assets that are there and the demand on Social Security given the Aging population and the rising payouts every year so one of the other ways to think about this is what are the long-term debt obligations which is ultimately the point of these Sovereign wealth funds and can they be invest in a smarter way why is the Social Security entities ultimately owning you know 3% yielding bonds when they could be owning interest in in equities so I would kind of think about that strategic pool of capital being managed by this as well and less about the Mandate of go be a capitalist investor for the United States raise money and make money I think leave that to the markets but when it comes to strategic assets I think this could be a good vehicle for when the got shut down yeah we seized 144,000 Bitcoin and that's sitting somewhere in some Department of Justice off yeah they sold I I think they sold sold it yeah no I think we still have it I think that was like the idea was that was going to become the Bitcoin Str Reserve I mean you could also come up with the doj the doj sells these so like who do you think of the doj is making the Bitcoin Market decisions and is that the right person to be monetizing these assets I mean d made an interesting point security I I just want to follow up on which is when when you think about social security it's six uh $6 trli of our 36 TR debt and it's actually a fake treasury bill so just to one of the things we figured out in early days before the inauguration I is like that 6 trillion dollar sits on The Ledger it's just a paper Ledger over so actually if it gets paid out it's also be very inflationary it's just a fake treasury got ledged over at that pays a very low rate and here at valer with my partners John shulin has been reading to try to help the the only the only thing we find that's audit in the government the the Social Security Administration actually has an audit it has an audit and when you go through the audit it's crazy the material weaknesses going by to Doge that you find yeah it' be way better to have that invested in a way that was economic for people with real money by way as for this guys as we're speaking the federal judge just put a temporary restraining order on Doge and has barred Elon and his team from accessing US Treasury payments data all right so now we're gonna have a real grudge match between the public the Federal which judge was it federal judge federal judge yeah would you know why jamat do it say why no but Elizabeth Warren is doing a Victory lap so I'm sure that you know she's part of it so the government agency set up by the president can't look at the database of the treasury so just to be u double click here doge is not a new agency it's the renaming of existing agency I can't remember the name of it we def find it Elon tweeted about this uh some weeks ago that was set up under Obama actually to do this to accredit an audit function to the government what's crazy about this ruling to me is uh Congress basically is the Constitution delegates to to the executive the um the ability to spend the money and they go through Congress it gets actually appropriate in Congress and the executive spends it how can you spend money if you don't know where it went I how can you be responsible right you have the authority to spend it but not the and how can you responsibly spend it if you actually can't go look and see where it goes guys this is flying Fast and Furious president Trump just unveiled his framework for his tax plan no tax on tips no tax on senior social security no tax on overtime pay renew the middle class tax cuts adjust the salt cap so again very Pro as I said Pro labor Pro populist eliminate all special tax breaks for billionaire sports team owners oh all right I'm no longer I already sold a team I already sold my fees I already sold my fees oops oops close the carried interest close the carried interest tax deduction loophole which allowed you to claim carried interest as sorry Antonio I better run oh no I'll be back in a few hours it's sell some things isn't that incredible I mean he is really going for the jugular wow amazing I support this 100% the Suk deductions coming back is that right marginally though I don't think he's going to give it the way that it was before but isn't this incredible I mean how who's going to stand up and lay on the railroad tracks for being able to amortise a multi-billion dollar sports team purchase or that when you make a fund investment you should get long-term kept gains treatment who is going to be that person in this ad nobody's going to stand up for these things I think we should just stop doing Ventra and just start NOS we just start a whole Rats nness of NOS to ship money around you could have an incubator yeah absolutely incubator incubator come if you've got a great idea for an NGO why why didn't you launch launch in every single random developing country in the world I mean if I had known you would have had 8 billion of AUM because of a USA ID just launch one in Vietnam and we could have yeah I could launch go launch I love it we we could have had a yeah a launch accelerator in Vietnam for transgender yeah the Jason calanis launch fun of Equatorial Guinea it is so crazy though to come out and you know watching the Democrats just the self-own of coming out and being like we have to stop people from stopping wasteful spend like they just don't seem to understand how unpopular these are kitchen table issues like Rah said I mean everyone cares about that and if you don't care about that if you care about these Fring isues and not the things people care about on the kitchen table well and if you think about the transgender Sports issue biological males playing in female sports leagues that issue that Trump just did an EO yesterday for was such an obvious issue of fairness and just has nothing to do with transgender it just has to do with like biology if a if a biological male plays basketball on a on a a biological female team some somebody's going to get hurt and that person's going to score 100 points it's just obvious and the fact that the Democrats couldn't see that issue being 100% for or 95% makes no sense like it's just such an obvious litus test of logic I mean look man the Constitution is is a is a document about fairness the people that found this country the Patriots found this country they they did it cuz they treated unfilly at home all of us here um are one generation away right or two generations away from immigration and the reality is that's why people come here man it's it's unamerican it's un amican deg we got two people here who are immigrants yes I'm reading the TR and it looks like this TR means temporary restraining order and it and it's actually Narrows who from Doge yeah can get read access down to two people Tom kuss and Marco elz oh okay so they don't want to have the whole team be able to see what's at treasury they just to have a process and some sign off okay that sounds not unreasonable I just want to point out two people to to look at no matter how good they are I'm she we're at 24/7 look at all the payments in the US government is not a lot yeah it does seem like it needs to be more than two but it doesn't seem like they're saying you can't look at it they just want to have some controls in place I mean feels to me like that's an administrative block that's like the narrowest thing you could do two okay yeah you can come in but you can just send two people and just these two people so if they get sick or something happens no one else comes in that seems to me to be truly dis mystery block to slow it down yeah H well we're interpreting this in real time the facts will come out over time let's wrap up on uh Google Google dropped 7% after reporting earnings on Tuesday chath Revenue up 12% year-over-year to 96.5 billion wow Cloud revenue is up 30% year-over-year 12 billion YouTube ads surging 14% to 10.5 billion net profit was around 26.5 billion up 28% year-over-year so they are really focusing on profitability obviously full year numbers this is just extraordinary total revenue 350 billion with a 100 billion in net profit cloud and YouTube finished 2024 with a combined run rate of $110 Billion YouTube is basically Netflix inside of uh inside of Google and their Google cloud is essentially AWS inside of Google the thing that made investors get concerned shth is that Google said it would invest 75 billion in capex in 2025 42% jump over 2024 29% more than analysts expect obviously this has to do with data center servers and the AI buildout what do you think about that number 75 billion obviously in relation to what we saw with deep seek doing it with maybe a little bit less maybe they're lying is this just an absolute waste of money or gargantuan number or is it something they can easily with that amount of profitability and cash they have absorb and use in the future I think I should stipulate that Google's models are probably the best of all the models across a broad base of capabilities if you test for them and so let's start there which is whatever they're doing is working the thing that they need to do is be able to translate those models now into better products and I think that that will happen slowly like for example if you look at Deep research most of the people online that are evaluating deep research would now say that open AI is both faster and just better on the margins all of these things can be improved I don't think that's a comment on the base model I think it's a comment on post trining and how they're attempting to productize these things so the other thing that Google has is a money machine that directly benefits from these Aid driven optimizations on ad targeting the only other company that has anywhere close to the same credibility as meta so I think what both of these two companies need to do is do a better job of explaining how that 75 billion gets segregated how much of that goes to these AI enabled models that actually do better ads optimization there was a there was a really interesting discussion by a former meta machine learning engineer on X about how they did it it's pretty amazing it's staggering but if they could say half the money goes to that and the other half goes to more speculative you know pre-training and post training I think the market would have eaten it up so it's probably more of a disclosure issue for Google because I would say right now their model quality is the best you have thoughts on this buildout Antonio obviously I think you've been involved with xai uh and obviously involved with Twitter and X previously and colossus's colossal buildout that was EX to watch a period of time do you have concerns that like some people do that this build out is too expensive and would be too hard to monetize all that expense or is it uh maybe a little bit of hand ringing and the opportunity in AI is so obviously huge that you just got to take the leap of faith and and and if you build it the revenue will come yeah I think chath has the right framework here which is return invest of capital and what he's saying by you know if Google had said hey half the money is for ad and half the money is for much bued post training the market would have seen that half the money has a higher return of capital and goog's return of capital is actually going up uh after the impation of of AI models into their into their company and I I think that sort of abstracts the entire Market which is people are waking up that return invested capital in data s will matter that the models are basic Commodities and super competitive in the best case it's kind of a a land worn Asia it's a melee in in a worst case just total Commodities what does matter is the return on Capital data center which is influenced by how good the data centers are so you mention the X data center it's 100,000 GP cluster it's the most dense coherent cluster in the world and it will just train faster and better than other clusters and it's also built for the most cheaply and the fastest so XI will have the highest train on Capital and I also think the best train data and therefore will win I think Google will also win because they have U their tensor flow chips they make their own some of their own chips they do focus on RC and they have a great Monopoly to kind of fund it all so I don't think it's over blown I think that I think this is going to be as you guys have said before in the podcast you know bigger than Industrial Revolution but uh it's also true that you need to have a good roic and if you don't you're not transparent about it you can see what happens I I would argue Google's probably been the most frugal thoughtful and well-managed Computing infrastructure investor of all time you know the 98 to 2005 era Google it was all about just cheap throwaway racks that that was the big Advantage they had is they weren't using the expensive Oracle servers and they had a two to three-year kind of depreciation timeline on those but they were super cheap and so the the roic was quite good then they got into Energy Efficiency which they realized was a big driving cost they started to build systems that that were more energy efficient as a result they lasted longer and then their their depreciation schedule moved up to 3 to four years meaning they could kind of write down the value of the servers over 3 to four years and then from 2010 to 2015 era their Hardware system for cloud allowed them to kind of extend through repurposing the utilization and they increased their depreciation from to four to five years and then in 2021 I don't know if you guys remember this they made this kind of big change to their depreciation schedule on data center infrastructure to six years so when they invest capex in a data center they would write down the servers over a six-year cycle because of AI optimization on maintenance so they he started using AI just for internal management of the infrastructure so I would view the $75 billion capex actually as a very positive signal for the company I think that it means that they have a really strong line of sight on how they're going to have full utilization and great return on this if you do the math Ric math on this $75 billion assume a 20% roic you've got to generating call it roughly an incremental $15 billion of profit a year plus the amortization of the 75 billion so take the 75 billion divided by six that's 12 billion plus 15 billion so what they're so basically they would need to make an incremental 27 billion of operating profit a year on the 75 billion for this to meet their roic performance that doesn't seem crazy because that's just under 20% of their in of their annual operating profit this is a very kind of I think important point which is Google doesn't just do this to to build out AI in the future they have a really strong line of sight on how this can kind of increment and you don't have a huge hurdle for them for this to pay back so I don't know I would kind of take Antonio's point I'd view this as a positive I think if you use their historical ability to manage infrastructure and make predictions on Investments as an indicator of the future this is a strong and positive indicator and I do think that for all the naysayers out there that think that search is going to evolve to chat you could look at this as being a really important proof point that Google has the confidence that they're going to be able to move from search to chat and as jamat points out they've got great performative models and I would view this more of as a positive than a negative if they were under investing I would be worried that they didn't know where to invest but to see them make this degree of investment highlights the confidence in the strategy and turny I don't know if you've been watching the agent space or deep research that came out from Google and then closed AI I mean open AI launched their copycat version of this product sorry I don't short feelings on it I'm curious your thoughts on on job displacement we're looking at self-driving obviously wh's got cars on the road obviously uh Tesla which you were previously on the board of and I know you were the First Institutional Investor in Tesla self- driving is pretty good I only get like one or two disengagements per hour and they tend to be the ones where I just want to take the turn a little sharper kind of thing so that's getting pretty close byd is very close you got a A lot of job displacement that aocc millions and millions of drivers in 10 years could lose their jobs researchers working at Gartner Group whatever Boston Consultant Group like it feels like there could be massive job displacement do you have concerns about that in the American economy and globally there's a lot of hand ring about this and it's real in Prior moments of LW disruption that there have been uh job displacements because there's you know generous people get retrained for something else you can't retrain so you know I think uh there were studies mon fre did of the steel industry in Pittsburgh in the '70s that the cost of each steel worker job loss was about a million dollars to the economy because these people couldn't be retrained and that might happen here but I'm going I have a more benign Outlook personally what I think is going to happen is that you will have job loss uh but the amount of productivity that will be released in the US economy is going to be extraordinary right so so GDP growth is a function of the numberal people working times productivity it's very simple economists want to make it more complex than that but it's the number of people working times productivity if you go if prty goes up to 5 6 7 8% you get a massive boost in GDP growth and then what happens well people can get retrained they can get different jobs different Services happen people start companies the application layer of LMS is just starting the the barrier to start a company is quite low things like launch probably explode because there's all these people who have don't have jobs anywh that were accountants and want to start something it's hard to know what happens you know I believe in American agility I believe in in this country I believe that we will figure out figure out a way that make this all work and if there's enough productivity and money in the economy that's flowing people will find new jobs they will find new business to start they will find new things to do we have to get out of the way take regulation down and let Americans be creative and unleash the American productivity machine Let's make that happen yeah that's I think really strong thoughts and I mean that's the game we're seeing on the field how many companies are we seeing hit a million dollars in Revenue with five employees where that used to take yeah 25 so the efficiency is there trath your your outlook on this issue since it seems to be coming up again specifically with truck drivers and Uber drivers and all kinds of other research jobs that seem to be be doing pretty well um or can be done pretty well by AI where where do you stand on this issue today I think it's a process Buffett wrote about this in an annual letter and what he described was the changing nature of jobs during The Agrarian Revolution and what you saw was a large cohort of people who supported themselves through farming and then the total Quantum of those jobs shrank by 90% when you had industrialized farming and tractors and whatnot but the economy to Antonio's Point grew around that business and added other kinds of businesses that didn't make sense in that moment and I think what you see is that when economies get more and more evolved you see the growth of services businesses that sort of are these things that can only happen when you have excess right the person that you pay for closet organizing would not have had a job in the turn of the agrarian Revolution or the Industrial Revolution but they can they can exist in 202 something and frankly they can make a good job the life coach there are all these jobs that just kind of come out of nowhere podcaster influencer all of that Venture venture capitalist vure Capital allocator absolutely mutant strawberry Creator yeah so I think that I think that you're cut that waiting for this next turn of creativity like the big problem that we all have maybe I'll take the more glass half empty version of what Antonio said is we really haven't been unlocking people's creativity over the last 15 years we've been trundling around except safe of a few companies which we all know and we can just repeat them endlessly but we know which ones they are that are truly innovating and at the edge everybody else is kind of diddling around Naval casing so the real problem is that we have not had a lot of reps in being creative I'll give you just a very simple example Nick can you find this even extremely state industries did you see the byd clip of the car that and I thought myself Park yes with a little swipe it's how tragic is it that you look at this and you're blown away yeah and you're blown blown away for two reasons one is a I didn't think that that was possible and B why doesn't it exist in America but the reality underneath the hood is extremely benign how this is implemented and so I think that the problem is we spent so much time losing the script I think Antonio is right when you unshackle people to not focus on the mental load of getting the pronouns right or the this or the that you won't be so overwhelmed by things like this because you will have already been pushing the boundaries of human creativity we need to get back to that we need to let these creative people cook and I hope I hope that that happens and I think that that will happen freeberg can you do a science corner on the FDA approval for the nonopioid painkiller right not today no no I know but could you do it like in a couple weeks yeah by the one I wanted to do is that new macro study on gp1s which I think is super interesting oh tell us you guys remember I talked a while ago about how they were able to mine VA data so the VA right they they take care of veterans and they have all the medical records and on an anonymized basis they can make that data available to researchers and so if you guys remember this this is how they identified that the Epstein bar virus or the virus that causes mono as being statistically certain to be the trigger for multiple sclerosis in the cohort of hundreds of thousands of patients that were in this this data set no one got Ms that didn't get Epstein bar virus if you did not get Epstein bar virus you did not get Ms I don't know if you guys remember I did the science Corner a while ago anyway so the data set that you can mine at the VA is incredible so they pulled all the data from everyone that's been on the gp1 agonists and they identified all of the health effects across multiple indications the statistical difference between the cohorts okay so this research team out of St Louis pulled all the data from the VA database and basically they looked at you know 1.2 million people with diabetes that didn't take anything compared to 215,000 that took the glp1 receptor agonists and another 600,000 people that took other drugs for diabetes so basically this cohort segmentation allows them to isolate the effect of the glp1 drugs um and as you can see here this shows across hundreds of thousands of patients the effect of the glp1 on a hazard ratio which means like How likely are you to have the following health condition versus the population that's not taking the glp ones and then uh on the right if you scroll to the right Nick are the increase in risk and on the left are the things that go down so the increase the only thing that increased is like you know 8% or 10% increase in nausea and vomiting y confirm uh musculoskeletal complications grd which is you know gastric reflux from sleep indigestion yeah and sleep disturbances related to indigestion so it's all abdominal stuff now if you go over here to the benefit side so the benefit side is what conditions did you see a decrease in so you have a decrease in shock a decrease in uh he hepatic failure so liver failure respiratory failure cardiac arrest in fact on cardiac arrest you see a 30% decrease in the probability of having cardiac arrest from the cohort that's on the glp1 Bia wow schizophrenia so so this goes to the point if you guys remember the interview I did a couple months ago with the CEO of Eli Lily that they have all these clinical trials going on right now for different indications for the glp1 receptor agonists that they're seeing that there's health benefits Beyond just the weight loss in reducing things like kidney disease obviously liver problems mental problems and so on do we know why and and if we don't know why do you think it's because this is suppressing the food and it's the the lack of food or the change in the food consumption that's creating this do you know what I'm asking like do you think the drug is actually yeah y so um you should watch the interview I did with RS in fact this is a good moment to call it out if you Haven seen it yeah I think he highlights that this class of drugs there are you know genes get turned on and off so there's a you know what's called a gene expression Cascade that occurs with certain compounds so we know that the gp1 receptor Agonist means that it binds to these gp1 sites and there's a cascading effect of genes that then get expressed and what that seems to do is turn off things like inflammatory markers it turns on things like C two genes which can actually increase cellular repair so there seem to be other benefits from these drugs Beyond just the appetite control and it's not the appetite control itself but there seems to be other effects let me ask you a question from these these receptors being activated you put your kids on this no okay would you put your wife on this I would consider it and I would consider it for myself too just for the anti-inflammatory effects how will you make that decision well for me personally and the thing that I weigh against is the muscle loss and uh the the bone density loss so I think that if you look at the the biggest kind of effect on these on a on the downside basis is you should increase your protein in your diet you have to do weightlifting there's things that you would do and frankly if you do those things anyway if you increase protein in your diet and do more weightlifting you're actually going to see very good health benefits from just doing those things that may actually outweigh the benefits you get the I have a question you Dave which is and this is the question is when when you look at that data and you talk to the cosos how much you think really longterm when the longterm sies are out is going to be that it was the drug or just that being obese is very bad for you and so when you take your body fat down dramatically all these other Gene Expressions happen anyway right so you think which one will it well this is this is what they're starting to isolate and I will say Antonio they are starting to see that there are other Expressions that are not related to the Obesity and people that don't have obesity that they're using that are using these drugs so they're they're seeing that cohort data now a clinical studies uh phase two were published and I think we're going to see phase three and some of these indications soon but it is looking very positive that it's not just the loss of obesity now to your point being obese not exercising eating poorly destroys your health you stop that right right everything gets better um if you lift weights freeberg can you tell us when you decide to do this I will yeah if I if I do do a glp1 um receptor Agonist I will let you guys know right now I'm I I actually feel like I want to go through a process of increasing uh my weightlifting routine more I I you know I've been trying to create a more kind of rigorous my schedule just sucks so that's been the hardest thing for me but I actually want to go through that first before making that decision cool David oh I'm sorry no I was just curious why why that order I don't understand I want to measure the effects because I do think that if you actually get into a a regular weightlifting routine and you increase protein in your diet which is another thing I've been making a a concerted measured effort to do which is hard as a vegetarian by the way you see pretty significant uh health effects and so I'm trying to get through the process of increasing muscle composition before I'll make the decision on whether or not to add G one I don't want to kind of confound the two factors you know what I did that made it super easy for me um is I got uh egg whites in a carton and I have and I have this incredible uh crunchy spicy garlic thing that everybody muku and everybody makes and everybody's crazy about just in the mornings I'll eat whatever it is 10 ounces 12 ounces of egg whites with that spicy stuff it's delicious it's awesome and I just try to you know get that whatever 30 40 grams of protein first thing in the morning and then doing the rocking well this is is easy like you just wear a 35 pound weight vest freeberg and you walk a mile or two and you will get like my problem Jason with all of this is that every time I see something so I saw Gary Brea on the Sha Ryan podcast recently and Sean Ryan asks him like what are a handful of things that you recommend for everybody right and he recommends mineral salt and then he recommends a methylated vitamin he recommends amino acids whatever there's a protocol then if you happen to catch a clip on X of Andrew huberman he'll have a protocol and then Brian Johnson has a protocol and the problem is all these Protocols are slightly the same but they're just different enough where it creates a huge cognitive load in a normal person like myself to your point freeberg Who's busy who's got a job who's got kids how do you decide and so I would really love something to be sort of like I don't want to say gold standard because you can't say that but that is like what's the real bank for your buck what Antonio said you know are you just better off just losing the 50 pounds and then this is why these products are successful and I think will be continue to grow pretty dramatically Antonio is because it is pop a pill and it solves all those problems it doesn't require a cognitive load it will be in a pill format soon right I mean the pills are almost here it would be very cool actually DAV if you do this U to jamar's point about you know people being confused if you did the every the every person's um kind of story around this journey and you documented itally you know like you you did like this is my weight I did weightlifting first and I did the gop1 and you actually did like a weekly thing where you checked in and even it was 10 minutes up on X or something where you just gave people the journey um in a way that wasn't so complicated because I think people are confused Jam right mean I have I have very good doctors you guys are good doctors but if you don't you don't know what to do by the way that the problem for me just to give you a sense of it I had a doctor in LA I had a doctor in San Francisco I would have them do their own versions of things then I would have somebody else help me compare it cost me way too much money and all that complexity did was make the quality of my healthare actually go down yeah and instead what I really wanted was just a very simple protocol that said take the metformin because it's good for you take the vitamin D take the omega-3 fatty acids otherwise just eat this meal plan and it would help me a lot more than than I've had to Cobble it together myself because by the way when you see something like you know Gary Brea is very very articulate very smart but when I see him on the Sha Ryan podcast the first thing I do is I go and populate an Amazon cart with all the things that he said because my instinct is well I should do the right thing for myself this is a couple hundred bucks it's worth the investment but then the day after somebody else say something else you know so I'll be really you have a little OCD though Jamal I've known you for a long time you get very obsessive with my father died because of poor health my best friend died of Po health I feel like you you should at least do the things that are preventable have you guys seen that that post jat did with you he was like half naked in the mirror he looks great what are you talking about he looks great if if you you could look like that you you'd do it too no no no I'm talking about like when you had the glucose monitor I'm sitting with him at the poker table he's got the glucose monitor and he's taking a sip of wine he's checking the glucose he's Tak he's having like a piece of BJ then he's checking the glucose monitor it's just like literally becomes upset me come on thisi so funny about this picture all these clown all these clowns on the internet are like they don't understand that when you're 6'2 these are big legs when you're those are not big when you're a short King when you're a short King when you're like my chck I lost my chti when you're 57 58 I get I get it while you cuz you guys are all stubby and short I don't get it this is the problem with generative AI you can tell it's a fake photo you can tell that that was generative AI because nobody has legs that th how could you have biceps and then legs that th doesn't make sense blushing unbelievable what a thirst trap now you guys are going to find photos of Antonio and I we're gon to throw themar four pieces of advice for people number one get good sleep number two exercise number three diet number four for meditation and if you want to do that it's very simple you get you get the calm meditation app you get the eight sleep sleep you get the fitbot for fitness and then you get Nutri forut your diet those are the four things you focus on make sure you have a good Athena you get a good Athena assistant all this is brought to you by my NGO which is Allin NGO USA gave us$1 18 million last year guys I forgot to tell you about it but don't worry it's in an offshore account for all of us when we get back to Ethiopia Vietnam we have an all-in castle built there okay we built uh with our NGO we'll see everybody next week love you boys we love you good see you guys man great job Antonio let your winners ride Rain Man David and in said we open source it to the hands and they've just gone crazy with it love queen [Music] of [Music] Besties my dog taking [Music] driveway oh man we should all just get a room and just have one big huge ory cuz they're all this useless it's like this like sexual tension that they just need to release somehow what [Music] we need to get [Music] merch I'm going all in