Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom
Episode Details
The recent episode of the All-In Podcast features Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks, Jason Calacanis, and Brad Gerstner discussing major geopolitical and tech shifts. The conversation starts with local politics, noting Spencer Pratt gaining traction against Karen Bass in the LA mayoral race. Jason Calacanis also mentions the controversy where Zohran Mamdani targeted the home of Ken Griffin. The primary tech discussion revolves around Elon Musk and SpaceX executing a massive compute deal with anthropic, led by Dario Amodei. By leasing Colossus to anthropic, Elon Musk introduces EWS (Elon Web Services) as a direct competitor to hyperscalers like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud. This deal provides the Data Centers and Blackwell GPUs necessary to train Claude and compete against OpenAI and their new model, Spud. Simultaneously, it subsidizes xAI to train Grok and form partnerships with companies like Cursor. David Sacks argues that anthropic's exponential growth makes it the fastest-growing monopoly, comparing it to John D. Rockefeller, while noting that older tech giants like Apple, run by Tim Cook, lack this explosive innovation. The hosts also address the White House and US Government considering an FDA for AI as a form of AI Regulation to enforce AI Safety. This was triggered by advanced models like Mythos which raised concerns about Cybersecurity in the AI era. Officials like Kevin Hasset and Scott Bessent weigh in on hardening defenses, and Bernie Sanders supports strict regulations, but Donald Trump is expected to favor a pro-innovation approach. Both David Sacks and Brad Gerstner strongly oppose this proposed FDA for AI. Lastly, the hosts analyze the broader macro environment. Despite concerns, there is an ongoing Capex Boom discussed by Chamath Palihapitiya, driven by hardware giants like Nvidia and memory makers like SK Hynix and Micron. This massive infrastructure spend is fueling a broader Economic boom, benefiting ad giants like Meta. Meanwhile, Jason Calacanis advocates for shifting the focus toward solving societal issues through tech-driven Universal Healthcare and raising the Minimum wage, pointing out how innovations like SPAN and the Tesla Powerwall by Tesla can revolutionize local infrastructure.
The episode explores the emergence of a massive AI infrastructure boom, centered on the strategic compute partnership between Elon Musk's EWS (Elon Web Services) and Anthropic. The hosts discuss the potential for this infrastructure to drive a long-term economic expansion while debating the risks of regulatory overreach, such as a proposed 'FDA for AI,' and the shifting competitive landscape among hyperscalers.
Portfolio lens: AI infrastructure and hardware-focused growth basket with a macro hedge on regulatory policy.
Generated with gemini-3.1-flash-lite on 7/19/2026, 5:40:44 AM. For research only. Not financial advice.EWS (Elon Web Services) Hyperscaler Expansion
Elon Musk is successfully pivoting his massive data center infrastructure into a viable hyperscaler business, creating a new revenue stream that subsidizes his AI development.
The deal between SpaceX/xAI and Anthropic demonstrates that Musk's massive compute capacity (Colossus, Macro hard, Macro harder) can be monetized to solve industry-wide supply constraints, effectively challenging AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud.
- Anthropic added over 220,000 Nvidia GPUs and 300 megawatts of energy through the deal.
- The deal provides immediate revenue to offset the high capex of xAI's model training.
- Musk's core competency in building massive factories translates directly to the physical requirements of modern data centers.
- Future partnership announcements with other AI frontier labs.
- Integration of compute capacity into distributed edge devices like Tesla Powerwalls.
- Successful scaling of the 'Macro hard' and 'Macro harder' facilities.
- Potential for regulatory scrutiny regarding market concentration.
- Execution risks in managing a hyperscaler service versus internal model training.
- Competitive response from established cloud giants.
- Monitor public filings for revenue growth in non-traditional cloud segments.
- Track energy procurement and data center construction permits in Texas and other key regions.
- Analyze the competitive pricing of EWS versus traditional hyperscalers.
AI Infrastructure and Memory Hardware Basket
The sustained Capex boom in AI infrastructure provides a durable tailwind for hardware and memory manufacturers despite concerns over AI model profitability.
The episode highlights that the current economic growth is heavily driven by massive infrastructure spending, with memory makers and hardware giants serving as the foundational layer for AI compute.
- Hyperscaler revenue growth (AWS, Azure, GCP) remains strong.
- Memory stocks like SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron are trading at low earnings multiples relative to their growth.
- The 'Capex boom' is fueling broader economic activity, including construction and blue-collar wage growth.
- Quarterly earnings reports showing continued high-margin growth for memory and GPU suppliers.
- Expansion of AI-driven productivity gains in enterprise software.
- Continued demand for Blackwell GPU clusters.
- Cyclical nature of the semiconductor and memory industry.
- Potential for a 'reckoning moment' if enterprise ROI on AI tokens does not materialize within 2-3 years.
- Geopolitical risks affecting supply chains.
- Evaluate the durability of operating margin expansion in the S&P 500.
- Monitor enterprise software adoption rates and coding token usage.
- Compare hardware capex trends against actual productivity metrics in global GDP.
Watchlist
- SK Hynix
- Micron
- Samsung
- Nvidia
- Anthropic
- OpenAI
- Tesla
- SPAN
Open Questions
- Will the ROI on AI tokens become measurable in enterprise operating margins within the next 500 days?
- How will the regulatory environment evolve regarding 'KYC' for frontier AI model access?
- Can the US government successfully harden systems against AI-enabled cyber threats without stifling innovation?
- To what extent is current corporate margin expansion driven by AI versus traditional financial engineering?
Key Topics & People
.jpg?width=300){kind=avatar}
Founder of Altimeter Capital, crossover investor, and guest on the podcast.
.jpg?width=300){kind=avatar}
Host on the All-In Podcast who was absent during this episode.
Host on the All-In Podcast, software investor, and venture capitalist.
.jpg?width=300){kind=avatar}
Host and moderator of the All-In Podcast.
Former US President facing a fourth indictment.
.jpg?width=300){kind=avatar}
Prominent socialist politician jokingly referenced in association with the DSA grocery store movement.
A socialist politician pushing for subsidized, city-owned grocery stores in New York City.
CEO of Anthropic, criticized for allegedly seeking an FDA-like regulatory moat for AI.
Billionaire hedge fund manager and founder of Citadel.
The administration of the US President, currently testing policies on AI regulation.
Mentioned as an example of a talented Republican candidate struggling in heavily Democratic California races.
A politician who ran in the Los Angeles election against Nithya Raman.
Large scale facilities housing computer systems, currently experiencing massive demand
.jpg?width=300){kind=avatar}
The emerging political and industry frameworks intended to control AI development and deployment.
The intersection of AI capabilities and cybersecurity, raising concerns about automated vulnerabilities.
Google's suite of cloud computing services that AI pure-plays have outscaled in specific sectors.
A nickname for the emerging business of renting out compute power from Elon Musk's massive data centers.
The massive surge in capital expenditures by tech companies to build AI capabilities.
Historical monopolist used by David Sacks as an analogy for Anthropic.
.jpg?width=300){kind=avatar}
Home battery systems potentially hosting distributed AI computing.
Proposed regulatory framework to vet new AI models before release.
Current period of high GDP growth, market highs, and strong labor participation driven by tech.
Economic policy suggested to boost consumer spending by raising the baseline wage.
Concept proposed to alleviate financial anxiety for everyday Americans.
Next-generation Nvidia chips used for massive AI computing tasks.
Federal authority balancing AI innovation with cybersecurity regulations.
Official discussing the balance between innovation and safety in AI.
Director of the National Economic Council who commented on a potential AI review process.