Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom
Episode Details
The recent episode of the All-In Podcast features Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks, Jason Calacanis, and Brad Gerstner discussing major geopolitical and tech shifts. The conversation starts with local politics, noting Spencer Pratt gaining traction against Karen Bass in the LA mayoral race. Jason Calacanis also mentions the controversy where Zohran Mamdani targeted the home of Ken Griffin. The primary tech discussion revolves around Elon Musk and SpaceX executing a massive compute deal with anthropic, led by Dario Amodei. By leasing Colossus to anthropic, Elon Musk introduces EWS (Elon Web Services) as a direct competitor to hyperscalers like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud. This deal provides the Data Centers and Blackwell GPUs necessary to train Claude and compete against OpenAI and their new model, Spud. Simultaneously, it subsidizes xAI to train Grok and form partnerships with companies like Cursor. David Sacks argues that anthropic's exponential growth makes it the fastest-growing monopoly, comparing it to John D. Rockefeller, while noting that older tech giants like Apple, run by Tim Cook, lack this explosive innovation. The hosts also address the White House and US Government considering an FDA for AI as a form of AI Regulation to enforce AI Safety. This was triggered by advanced models like Mythos which raised concerns about Cybersecurity in the AI era. Officials like Kevin Hasset and Scott Bessent weigh in on hardening defenses, and Bernie Sanders supports strict regulations, but Donald Trump is expected to favor a pro-innovation approach. Both David Sacks and Brad Gerstner strongly oppose this proposed FDA for AI. Lastly, the hosts analyze the broader macro environment. Despite concerns, there is an ongoing Capex Boom discussed by Chamath Palihapitiya, driven by hardware giants like Nvidia and memory makers like SK Hynix and Micron. This massive infrastructure spend is fueling a broader Economic boom, benefiting ad giants like Meta. Meanwhile, Jason Calacanis advocates for shifting the focus toward solving societal issues through tech-driven Universal Healthcare and raising the Minimum wage, pointing out how innovations like SPAN and the Tesla Powerwall by Tesla can revolutionize local infrastructure.
The episode explores the emergence of a massive AI infrastructure boom, centered on the strategic compute partnership between Elon Musk's EWS (Elon Web Services) and Anthropic. The hosts discuss the potential for this infrastructure to drive a long-term economic expansion while debating the risks of regulatory overreach, such as a proposed 'FDA for AI,' and the shifting competitive landscape among hyperscalers.
Portfolio lens: AI infrastructure and hardware-focused growth basket with a macro hedge on regulatory policy.
Generated with gemini-3.1-flash-lite on 7/19/2026, 5:40:44 AM. For research only. Not financial advice.EWS (Elon Web Services) Hyperscaler Expansion
Elon Musk is successfully pivoting his massive data center infrastructure into a viable hyperscaler business, creating a new revenue stream that subsidizes his AI development.
The deal between SpaceX/xAI and Anthropic demonstrates that Musk's massive compute capacity (Colossus, Macro hard, Macro harder) can be monetized to solve industry-wide supply constraints, effectively challenging AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud.
- Anthropic added over 220,000 Nvidia GPUs and 300 megawatts of energy through the deal.
- The deal provides immediate revenue to offset the high capex of xAI's model training.
- Musk's core competency in building massive factories translates directly to the physical requirements of modern data centers.
- Future partnership announcements with other AI frontier labs.
- Integration of compute capacity into distributed edge devices like Tesla Powerwalls.
- Successful scaling of the 'Macro hard' and 'Macro harder' facilities.
- Potential for regulatory scrutiny regarding market concentration.
- Execution risks in managing a hyperscaler service versus internal model training.
- Competitive response from established cloud giants.
- Monitor public filings for revenue growth in non-traditional cloud segments.
- Track energy procurement and data center construction permits in Texas and other key regions.
- Analyze the competitive pricing of EWS versus traditional hyperscalers.
AI Infrastructure and Memory Hardware Basket
The sustained Capex boom in AI infrastructure provides a durable tailwind for hardware and memory manufacturers despite concerns over AI model profitability.
The episode highlights that the current economic growth is heavily driven by massive infrastructure spending, with memory makers and hardware giants serving as the foundational layer for AI compute.
- Hyperscaler revenue growth (AWS, Azure, GCP) remains strong.
- Memory stocks like SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron are trading at low earnings multiples relative to their growth.
- The 'Capex boom' is fueling broader economic activity, including construction and blue-collar wage growth.
- Quarterly earnings reports showing continued high-margin growth for memory and GPU suppliers.
- Expansion of AI-driven productivity gains in enterprise software.
- Continued demand for Blackwell GPU clusters.
- Cyclical nature of the semiconductor and memory industry.
- Potential for a 'reckoning moment' if enterprise ROI on AI tokens does not materialize within 2-3 years.
- Geopolitical risks affecting supply chains.
- Evaluate the durability of operating margin expansion in the S&P 500.
- Monitor enterprise software adoption rates and coding token usage.
- Compare hardware capex trends against actual productivity metrics in global GDP.
Watchlist
- SK Hynix
- Micron
- Samsung
- Nvidia
- Anthropic
- OpenAI
- Tesla
- SPAN
Open Questions
- Will the ROI on AI tokens become measurable in enterprise operating margins within the next 500 days?
- How will the regulatory environment evolve regarding 'KYC' for frontier AI model access?
- Can the US government successfully harden systems against AI-enabled cyber threats without stifling innovation?
- To what extent is current corporate margin expansion driven by AI versus traditional financial engineering?
Key Topics & People
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Former US President, cited as an example of a personality-driven political figure with built-in audiences.
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Host of the All-In Podcast and angel investor.
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Host of the All-In Podcast, venture capitalist, and early Facebook executive.
The debate around how to safely govern and restrict AI systems, potentially focusing on compute.
The rising necessity for advanced AI-driven defense systems to counter ubiquitous open-source AI capabilities.
Critical infrastructure for AI compute, increasingly viewed as national security assets requiring massive energy generation.
CEO of Anthropic who attended the summit despite prior political objections, invited directly by Donald Trump.
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The executive branch of the US government that hosted the Super Intelligence Summit.
Venture capitalist and co-host of the All-In Podcast who attended and helped shape the White House AI safety accord.
The current Democratic Mayor of Los Angeles, heavily criticized for alleged incompetence and lack of law enforcement.
A media entrepreneur and reality television personality who ran a grassroots campaign for Mayor of Los Angeles.
U.S. Senator proposing severe legislation to ban superintelligence development.
The massive capital expenditure super cycle driven by the buildout of AI technologies.
Founder and CEO of Altimeter, who presented on the state of the AI market and the broader economy.
Official working closely with the administration on managing the fiscal deficit.
A colloquial term referring to the booming, highly profitable compute-leasing business emerging from SpaceX/xAI infrastructure.
A proposed regulatory agency modeled after the FDA to approve AI models.
NYC politician who implemented a ban on generative AI in schools.
The lowest remuneration legally permitted, heavily debated regarding its impact on corporate economics.
Billionaire hedge fund manager and founder of Citadel.
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Google's suite of cloud computing services that AI pure-plays have outscaled in specific sectors.
Historical monopolist used by David Sacks as an analogy for Anthropic.
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Home battery systems potentially hosting distributed AI computing.
Current period of high GDP growth, market highs, and strong labor participation driven by tech.
Concept proposed to alleviate financial anxiety for everyday Americans.
Next-generation Nvidia chips used for massive AI computing tasks.
Federal authority balancing AI innovation with cybersecurity regulations.
Director of the National Economic Council who commented on a potential AI review process.