E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Episode Details
In the All-In Podcast's 2024 predictions episode, hosts Jason Calacanis, David Sachs, Chamath Palihapitiya, and David Friedberg deliver a comprehensive forecast on geopolitics, technology, and markets. Geopolitically, David Sachs predicts Vladimir Putin of Russia will emerge as a major winner, solidifying his position against The West in the Ukraine war and gaining influence with blocs like BRICS that challenge Dollar Hegemony. Conversely, The West is pegged as a loser due to strategic failures in Ukraine and the fallout from the Israel-Gaza conflict, compounded by economic woes in Germany stemming from lost Russian energy and competition from China. A key domestic prediction focuses on the Two-party system breakdown in the US, symbolized by the rise of independent candidates like RFK Jr.. In the business world, predicted winners include Commodities and Bootstrapped profitable startups leveraging AI-driven business disruption. Defense tech firm Anduril, founded by Palmer Luckey, is highlighted for solving problems of Asymmetric Warfare. A significant trend is the increasing value of AI Training Data, with owners like the New York Times poised to benefit from Licensing deals for generative AI amid legal challenges around Copyright in AI with companies like OpenAI. Predicted losers include LLM startups, which face intense competition from Open source AI, and Vertical SaaS companies, threatened by the SaaS industry disruption as AI tools enable custom in-house software development. A notable contrarian take from Chamath Palihapitiya is that the valuations of AI leaders like OpenAI (led by Sam Altman) and Nvidia could decline due to high AI cost and latency and competitive pressures. Key market themes include a 'bumpy' Soft Landing managed by The Fed, whose decision on the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) is a major event. Strong performance is expected for Energy stocks and assets related to Nuclear Power, while a valuation reset is anticipated in the gap between Public vs private tech valuations. Major corporate events could include IPOs for Starlink and TikTok, with the latter's fate tied to the CCP (Chinese Communist Party). Anticipated trends include mainstream crypto adoption via Bitcoin ETFs, breakthroughs in AI-driven scientific discovery, and a bet from Jason Calacanis that Apple will finally become a major AI player. Lastly, the tense relationship between Turkey and NATO is flagged as a potential geopolitical flashpoint.
Key Topics & People
The podcast hosting the interview with Senator John Fetterman.
Co-host of the All-In Podcast who interviewed Senator John Fetterman on various political and economic topics.
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CEO of OpenAI, referenced regarding the strategic use of massive capital raises to build competitive moats.
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Podcast host interviewing Travis Kalanick and Michael Dell live in Austin.
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Co-host of the All-In Podcast participating in the capital markets discussion.
A highly efficient energy source being rapidly scaled up by nations like China and India to achieve energy independence.
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President of Russia who initiated the invasion of Ukraine and is discussed as the primary driver of the conflict.
A prominent newspaper referenced regarding institutional capture and its coverage of the Ukraine war.
Tech entrepreneur and founder in the defense space, highly praised for building innovative weapons systems to keep the US competitive.
Co-host of the All-In Podcast and venture capitalist at Craft Ventures. He expresses a contrarian belief that AI will increase demand for knowledge workers and argues that the US is at the beginning of an AI-driven economic boom.
A significant downturn in the stock market for Software as a Service (SaaS) companies, with trillions in value wiped out. This is attributed to the market discounting future cash flows due to the perceived threat and uncertainty from rapidly advancing AI technologies.
AI models and tools whose source code is publicly available. The discussion highlighted the battle between open-source (like Clawdbot and Kimi K2.5) and closed-source models, emphasizing benefits like sovereignty and control over data.
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A business model where AI companies pay content owners for the right to use their data, either for training models or for real-time content integration, as seen with OpenAI's deal with Axel Springer.
A military strategy where a less powerful actor uses low-cost, high-impact tactics against a more powerful adversary, such as the Houthi's use of cheap drones against expensive naval and commercial vessels.
An anticipated trend for 2024 where predictive AI models will accelerate the discovery of new molecules, materials, and production methods in fields like biopharma and chemical engineering.
A predicted market trend where the valuations of public tech companies will outperform late-stage private tech companies, which are expected to face a valuation reset.
Startups focused on creating large language models. Predicted by Jason Calacanis to be the worst-performing asset class in 2024 due to overvaluation, intense competition, and the rapid progress of open-source alternatives.
Shares of companies in the energy sector, predicted by David Sachs to be a top-performing asset in 2024 due to the high risk of escalating geopolitical conflicts.
Software-as-a-service businesses that cater to specific industries. Predicted by David Friedberg to be a major business loser in 2024 due to the rise of custom-built software enabled by AI tools.
A category of companies predicted by Chamath Palihapitiya to be the biggest business winner in 2024, as AI will make it cheaper to create businesses that can attack incumbents with high-cost structures.
The trend of artificial intelligence enabling new, low-cost companies to rapidly copy and challenge existing businesses, particularly those with high overhead and process-heavy operations.
A Federal Reserve liquidity program created to support the regional banking system. Its potential extension or replacement is predicted to be the biggest business deal of 2024.
Predicted to be a major business loser in 2024 due to the loss of cheap Russian gas, which has undermined its industrial model, and increased competition from the Chinese automotive industry.
A business sector, including raw materials and agricultural products, predicted by David Friedberg to experience a boom in 2024 due to underinvestment, inventory rebuilding, and strong economic activity.
A predicted political trend in the US for 2024, where a significant portion of the electorate shows interest in independent or third-party candidates, challenging the dominance of the Democratic and Republican parties.
The dominance of the US dollar as the world's primary reserve currency, which is being challenged by BRICS countries and others in the global South.
Exchange-Traded Funds for Bitcoin, whose approval is anticipated to be a major trend in 2024, potentially leading to mainstream adoption of the cryptocurrency.
The economic scenario where inflation is brought under control without causing a recession. David Sachs predicts this scenario will get 'very bumpy' in 2024, challenging market optimism.
A key challenge for the AI industry, where current models are too expensive and slow for many production-quality applications. This creates an opportunity for new players to disrupt the market.
The ruling political party of China, whose influence over companies like TikTok is a major geopolitical concern for the US.
The legal and business issue concerning the use of copyrighted material to train AI models, leading to lawsuits and the potential for a new market of licensing deals.
The datasets used to train large language models. Owners of valuable, proprietary training data are predicted by Jason Calacanis to be major business winners as AI models seek licensing deals.