E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Episode Details
In the All-In Podcast's 2024 predictions episode, hosts Jason Calacanis, David Sachs, Chamath Palihapitiya, and David Friedberg deliver a comprehensive forecast on geopolitics, technology, and markets. Geopolitically, David Sachs predicts Vladimir Putin of Russia will emerge as a major winner, solidifying his position against The West in the Ukraine war and gaining influence with blocs like BRICS that challenge Dollar Hegemony. Conversely, The West is pegged as a loser due to strategic failures in Ukraine and the fallout from the Israel-Gaza conflict, compounded by economic woes in Germany stemming from lost Russian energy and competition from China. A key domestic prediction focuses on the Two-party system breakdown in the US, symbolized by the rise of independent candidates like RFK Jr.. In the business world, predicted winners include Commodities and Bootstrapped profitable startups leveraging AI-driven business disruption. Defense tech firm Anduril, founded by Palmer Luckey, is highlighted for solving problems of Asymmetric Warfare. A significant trend is the increasing value of AI Training Data, with owners like the New York Times poised to benefit from Licensing deals for generative AI amid legal challenges around Copyright in AI with companies like OpenAI. Predicted losers include LLM startups, which face intense competition from Open source AI, and Vertical SaaS companies, threatened by the SaaS industry disruption as AI tools enable custom in-house software development. A notable contrarian take from Chamath Palihapitiya is that the valuations of AI leaders like OpenAI (led by Sam Altman) and Nvidia could decline due to high AI cost and latency and competitive pressures. Key market themes include a 'bumpy' Soft Landing managed by The Fed, whose decision on the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) is a major event. Strong performance is expected for Energy stocks and assets related to Nuclear Power, while a valuation reset is anticipated in the gap between Public vs private tech valuations. Major corporate events could include IPOs for Starlink and TikTok, with the latter's fate tied to the CCP (Chinese Communist Party). Anticipated trends include mainstream crypto adoption via Bitcoin ETFs, breakthroughs in AI-driven scientific discovery, and a bet from Jason Calacanis that Apple will finally become a major AI player. Lastly, the tense relationship between Turkey and NATO is flagged as a potential geopolitical flashpoint.
Key Topics & People
Tech entrepreneur, used as an example of an elite founder.
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CEO of OpenAI, referred to as an example of a top-tier founder.
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Host of the All-In Podcast and angel investor.
Host of the All-In Podcast and venture capitalist.
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Host of the All-In Podcast, venture capitalist, and early Facebook executive.
AI models with accessible source code, which Ek advocates for to drive innovation.
A popular technology and business podcast where industry leaders discuss startups, economy, and global events.
Major newspaper heavily criticized for its initial coverage framing a terrorist hijacking as a mere altercation.
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A key propulsion and energy technology being revitalized by NASA for deep space missions.
Ruling party of China utilizing social media bots to disrupt US data center expansion.
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The President of Russia, who was allegedly the target of the CIA director's unannounced diplomatic visit.
Software designed for highly specific industry workflows, which may be more vulnerable to disruption by custom AI agents.
Highly specialized datasets curated by PhDs, which are reportedly being sold to foreign labs, closing the AI capability gap.
The legal battle concerning intellectual property rights over data used to train AI.
Physical assets and raw materials entering a major supercycle, recommended as a hedge against dollar debasement.
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Co-host of the All-In Podcast and venture capitalist at Craft Ventures. He expresses a contrarian belief that AI will increase demand for knowledge workers and argues that the US is at the beginning of an AI-driven economic boom.
A significant downturn in the stock market for Software as a Service (SaaS) companies, with trillions in value wiped out. This is attributed to the market discounting future cash flows due to the perceived threat and uncertainty from rapidly advancing AI technologies.
A business model where AI companies pay content owners for the right to use their data, either for training models or for real-time content integration, as seen with OpenAI's deal with Axel Springer.
A military strategy where a less powerful actor uses low-cost, high-impact tactics against a more powerful adversary, such as the Houthi's use of cheap drones against expensive naval and commercial vessels.
An anticipated trend for 2024 where predictive AI models will accelerate the discovery of new molecules, materials, and production methods in fields like biopharma and chemical engineering.
A predicted market trend where the valuations of public tech companies will outperform late-stage private tech companies, which are expected to face a valuation reset.
Startups focused on creating large language models. Predicted by Jason Calacanis to be the worst-performing asset class in 2024 due to overvaluation, intense competition, and the rapid progress of open-source alternatives.
Shares of companies in the energy sector, predicted by David Sachs to be a top-performing asset in 2024 due to the high risk of escalating geopolitical conflicts.
A category of companies predicted by Chamath Palihapitiya to be the biggest business winner in 2024, as AI will make it cheaper to create businesses that can attack incumbents with high-cost structures.
The trend of artificial intelligence enabling new, low-cost companies to rapidly copy and challenge existing businesses, particularly those with high overhead and process-heavy operations.
A Federal Reserve liquidity program created to support the regional banking system. Its potential extension or replacement is predicted to be the biggest business deal of 2024.
Predicted to be a major business loser in 2024 due to the loss of cheap Russian gas, which has undermined its industrial model, and increased competition from the Chinese automotive industry.
A predicted political trend in the US for 2024, where a significant portion of the electorate shows interest in independent or third-party candidates, challenging the dominance of the Democratic and Republican parties.
The dominance of the US dollar as the world's primary reserve currency, which is being challenged by BRICS countries and others in the global South.
Exchange-Traded Funds for Bitcoin, whose approval is anticipated to be a major trend in 2024, potentially leading to mainstream adoption of the cryptocurrency.
The economic scenario where inflation is brought under control without causing a recession. David Sachs predicts this scenario will get 'very bumpy' in 2024, challenging market optimism.
A key challenge for the AI industry, where current models are too expensive and slow for many production-quality applications. This creates an opportunity for new players to disrupt the market.