Predictive Policing

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Predictive policing

Predictive policing is the usage of mathematics, predictive analytics, and other analytical techniques in law enforcement to identify potential criminal activity. A report published by the RAND Corporation identified four general categories predictive policing methods fall into: methods for predicting crimes, methods for predicting offenders, methods for predicting perpetrators' identities, and methods for predicting victims of crime.

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• Predictive policing - Wikipedia

  Predictive policing uses data on the times, locations and nature of past crimes to provide advice to police strategists concerning where, and at what times, police patrols should patrol, or maintain a presence. This type of policing detects patterns in crime reports to make educated guesses of where crime is likely to spike. Algorithms are produced by taking into account past statistics, to process large amounts of data. Choices are made regarding the types of data to collect, the duration and frequency of data collection and update, the types of analytical tools to employ, the dependent variables to focus on, the types of police operations to employ, how and when to evaluate the success of interventions, and what changes in interventions should be implemented following the evaluation. [...] Predictive policing is the usage of mathematics, predictive analytics, and other analytical techniques in law enforcement to identify potential criminal activity. A report published by the RAND Corporation identified four general categories predictive policing methods fall into: methods for predicting crimes, methods for predicting offenders, methods for predicting perpetrators' identities, and methods for predicting victims of crime. ## Methodology [edit] [...] Moish Kutnowski writing for the Journal for Community, Safety, and Well-Being in 2017 wrote, "Predictive policing is an extension of existing tools that our brains naturally adhere to in pattern recognition. However, the danger of using a new tool that is not well understood, does not develop past existing social problems, and reinforces embedded negative stereotypes rather than pushing past them, is a strong indicator that we as a society are using it the wrong way." ## Regulation [edit] ### European Union [edit]

• Predictive policing | Social Sciences and Humanities | Research Starters | EBSCO Research

  RESEARCH STARTER # Predictive policing Predictive policing is a method that employs advanced algorithms and artificial intelligence (AI) to forecast potential criminal activities, allowing law enforcement to allocate resources more efficiently and proactively address crime. This approach can focus on individuals, assessing their likelihood of reoffending based on their past behavior, or target specific geographic areas to anticipate where crimes might occur. The software analyzes vast amounts of data to identify patterns, enabling police departments to prioritize their patrols in areas deemed most at risk for crime. [...] ## Full Article Predictive policing refers to the use of specialized artificial intelligence (AI) or analytical software to predict the likely occurrence of crimes. In some instances, predictive policing is used to predict how likely it is that a previous offender will reoffend. The software then recommends that the police heavily monitor that individual. In other instances, predictive policing software monitors specific areas, then recommends that police increase patrols in regions where higher instances of crimes are likely to occur. In order to accomplish these goals, predictive policing software uses complex algorithms to sort through massive amounts of data and establish patterns. It then applies those patterns to events as they unfold, using them to make predictions. [...] 3 of 3 ## Full Article Predictive policing refers to the use of specialized artificial intelligence (AI) or analytical software to predict the likely occurrence of crimes. In some instances, predictive policing is used to predict how likely it is that a previous offender will reoffend. The software then recommends that the police heavily monitor that individual. In other instances, predictive policing software monitors specific areas, then recommends that police increase patrols in regions where higher instances of crimes are likely to occur. In order to accomplish these goals, predictive policing software uses complex algorithms to sort through massive amounts of data and establish patterns. It then applies those patterns to events as they unfold, using them to make predictions.

• Overview of Predictive Policing | National Institute of Justice

  Predictive policing leverages computer models — such as those used in the business industry to anticipate how market conditions or industry trends will evolve over time — for law enforcement purposes, namely anticipating likely crime events and informing actions to prevent crime. Predictions can focus on variables such as places, people, groups or incidents. Demographic trends, populations of paroled persons and economic conditions may all affect crime rates in particular areas. Using models supported by prior crime and environmental data to inform different kinds of interventions can help police reduce the number of crime incidents. [...] What Is Predictive Policing? Predictive policing tries to harness the power of information, geospatial technologies and evidence-based intervention models to reduce crime and improve public safety. This two-pronged approach — applying advanced analytics to various data sets, in conjunction with intervention models — can move law enforcement from reacting to crimes into the realm of predicting what and where something is likely to happen and deploying resources accordingly. The predictive policing approach does not replace traditional policing. Instead, it enhances existing approaches such as problem-oriented policing, community policing, intelligence-led policing and hot spot policing.

• Pitfalls of Predictive Policing: An Ethical Analysis - Viterbi Conversations in Ethics

  Predictive policing is a law enforcement practice in which computer algorithms are used to foresee where crime is more likely to happen. It is used more as a forecast than a prediction–certain areas are more likely to have crime, but those areas are not guaranteed to have crime. There are two types of predictive policing: placed-based and person-based. Place-based policing occurs when q program analyzes locations of past crimes and determines which areas are more likely to have crime committed in them in the present. Police departments then deploy more units to patrol the neighborhoods that are considered high-risk. Ideally, with increased surveillance, police can respond to crime scenes more quickly or deter crime altogether with their presence. On the other hand, in person-based [...] #### Abstract Predictive policing is a police tactic that uses computer algorithms to predict where crime is likely to occur. This tactic, which has been used in cities like Los Angeles, allows the police to deploy more officers to “high-risk locations.” However, predictive policing violates the ethics of consequentialism and the ethical frameworks of justice and fairness by disproportionately targeting low-income neighborhoods and high-minority areas with increased police activity. Although boosting police patrols can deter crime in some cases, they also make people feel wary and frightened. Predictive policing is an unethical police tactic and should be further regulated or used in other manners. Crime should not be prevented by police-generated fear. #### Introduction

• NACDL - From the President: Predictive Policing: The Modernization of Historical Human Injustice

  Predictive policing refers to the police tactic that uses computer data to anticipate where and when future crime will occur, and who will commit it.5 Ostensibly to help departments deploy officers more effectively and prevent incidents before they happen, predictive policing magnifies pre-existing bias in policies and tactics that are unnecessarily harming communities of color. One of the most contested technologies, for instance, is Beware Software. Functioning as an immediate form of predictive policing, Beware is a threat-scoring technology used in response to 911 calls. Beware uses the address given during a 911 call to find the names associated with the residence and compiles publicly available information, ranging from criminal convictions to mental disorders to even social media [...] Skip to Content # NACDL - National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers NACDL logo # From the President: Predictive Policing: The Modernization of Historical Human Injustice Predictive policing refers to the police tactic that uses computer data to anticipate where and when crime will occur. Ostensibly to help departments deploy officers more effectively, predictive policing magnifies pre-existing bias in policies and tactics that are unnecessarily harming communities of color. Rick Jones The Champion® Issue September/October 2017 Page: 5 Read more From the President columns