US Trade Deficit
The economic imbalance where the US buys more from other countries than it sells to them. Lutnick frames this as a long-term problem leading to foreign ownership of American assets, which tariffs are designed to correct.
First Mentioned
1/9/2026, 4:44:52 AM
Last Updated
1/9/2026, 4:45:46 AM
Research Retrieved
1/9/2026, 4:45:46 AM
Summary
The US trade deficit is a significant economic metric representing the excess of imports over exports, which reached a notable $1.15 trillion in 2016, the largest in the world at that time. Historically, the United States maintained surpluses or small deficits through the 1960s and 1970s, but large deficits became a fixture starting in the 1980s. While many economists argue that trade deficits are not inherently harmful, the Trump administration identified the deficit as a sign of the nation being 'ripped off' and implemented a strategy to correct it through country-specific tariffs and innovative trade models like the 'Staircase Deal Model.' This strategy, led by Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, aims to drive 5-6% GDP growth by 2026 by leveraging trade deals, such as the $550 billion investment fund agreement with Japan, and reshoring manufacturing for critical technologies like semiconductors. Recent data from 2025 shows significant volatility, with a record monthly low in March followed by a sharp reduction to $29.4 billion by October 2025, influenced by shifting trade policies and tariffs on goods from the EU and Canada.
Referenced in 1 Document
Research Data
Extracted Attributes
2022 Peak Deficit
$944 billion (Approximately 3.7% of GDP)
Target GDP Growth
5-6% by 2026
2016 Trade Deficit
$1.15 trillion (World's largest)
2024 Goods Deficit
$1.2 trillion (Offset by services surplus)
Primary Policy Tool
Country-specific Tariffs
2024 Overall Deficit
Over $900 billion
Record Monthly Low Balance
-$136.42 billion (Recorded in March 2025)
Record Monthly High Balance
$1.95 billion (Recorded in June 1975)
Projected 2025 Goods Deficit
$1.26 trillion
Timeline
- The United States reaches an all-time record high trade balance surplus of $1.95 billion. (Source: Trading Economics)
1975-06-01
- Large trade deficits begin to open and continue expanding through the following decades. (Source: CFR Backgrounder)
1980-01-01
- The US records the world's largest trade deficit at $1.15 trillion. (Source: Wikipedia (Balance of Trade))
2016-12-31
- The US trade deficit peaks at more than $944 billion, representing 3.7% of GDP. (Source: CFR Backgrounder)
2022-12-31
- The US records a record monthly low trade balance of -$136.42 billion. (Source: Trading Economics)
2025-03-01
- The trade deficit is recorded at $52.83 billion, the lowest since June 2020. (Source: Trading Economics)
2025-09-01
- The trade deficit falls 39% to $29.4 billion, driven by a 2.6% increase in exports and a 3.2% decrease in imports. (Source: BEA News Release)
2025-10-01
- Target date for the Trump Administration's economic strategy to achieve 5-6% GDP growth. (Source: Howard Lutnick Interview)
2026-01-01
Wikipedia
View on WikipediaBalance of trade
Balance of trade is the difference between the monetary value of a nation's exports and imports of goods over a certain time period. Sometimes, trade in services is also included in the balance of trade but the official IMF definition only considers goods. The balance of trade measures a flow variable of exports and imports over a given period of time. The notion of the balance of trade does not mean that exports and imports are "in balance" with each other. If a country exports a greater value than it imports, it has a trade surplus or positive trade balance, and conversely, if a country imports a greater value than it exports, it has a trade deficit or negative trade balance. As of 2016, about 60 out of 200 countries have a trade surplus. The world's largest trade surpluses are held by China ($823 billion), Germany ($226 billion), and Singapore ($154 billion), while the largest trade deficits are held by the United States ($1.15 trillion), United Kingdom ($271 billion), and India ($241 billion). Economists reject the idea that a trade deficit is detrimental to a nation's economy, and the idea that a bilateral trade deficit is inherently bad.
Web Search Results
- The U.S. Trade Deficit: How Much Does It Matter?
Today’s $918.4 billion overall U.S. trade deficit, representing about 3.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), is down from a 2022 peak of more than $944 billion, which at the time was around 3.7 percent of GDP. The deficit has averaged $594 billion since 2000, much higher than in previous decades, when it accounted for well below 2 percent of GDP. The United States ran either a surplus or a small deficit through the 1960s and 1970s, after which a large deficit opened in the 1980s and continued to expand through the 1990s and 2000s. [...] A trade deficit occurs when a nation imports more than it exports. For instance, in 2024 the United States exported nearly $3.2 trillion in goods and services to the world, while it imported $4.1 trillion, leaving an overall trade deficit of more than $900 billion. The deficit in goods, at $1.2 trillion, is higher than the total deficit, since a portion of the goods deficit is offset by the surplus in services trade. Services, such as tourism, intellectual property, and finance, make up roughly one-third of exports, while major goods exported include aircraft, refined petroleum and other fuels, and transportation equipment. Meanwhile, imports are dominated by capital goods, such as computers and telecom equipment; consumer goods, such as apparel, electronic devices, and automobiles; and [...] As Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Zhiyao Lu point out in a report for the Peterson Institute for International Economics, several macroeconomic forces influence the size of trade deficit: More government spending, if it leads to a larger federal budget deficit, reduces the national savings rate and raises the trade deficit. A stronger dollar makes foreign products cheaper for American consumers, while making U.S. exports more expensive for foreign buyers, again tending to raise the trade deficit. A growing U.S. economy also often leads to a larger deficit, since consumers have more income to buy more goods from abroad. More on: United States U.S. Trade Deficit Trade NAFTA Donald Trump
- United States Balance of Trade - Trading Economics
The United States recorded a trade deficit of 52.83 USD Billion in September of 2025. Balance of Trade in the United States averaged -19.14 USD Billion from 1950 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 1.95 USD Billion in June of 1975 and a record low of -136.42 USD Billion in March of 2025. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Balance of Trade - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Balance of Trade - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on January of 2026. [...] The US recorded a trade deficit of $52.8 billion in September 2025, the lowest since June 2020, compared to a $59.3 billion gap in August and forecasts of $63.3 billion. Exports jumped 3% to $289.3 billion, the second-highest level on record, led by nonmonetary gold, pharmaceutical preparations and ...financial services while a decline was seen in sales of computers, travel and transport. Meanwhile, imports rose at a slower 0.6% to $342.1 billion, led by a surge in pharmaceutical preparations and an increase in nonmonetary gold, computer accessories, transport and financial services while purchases declined for computers, crude oil, electric apparatus and travel. In September, the largest trade deficit was recorded with Ireland ($-18.2 billion), followed by Mexico ($-17.8 billion) and the [...] The US recorded a trade deficit of $52.8 billion in September 2025, the lowest since June 2020, compared to a $59.3 billion gap in August and forecasts of $63.3 billion. Exports jumped 3% to $289.3 billion, the second-highest level on record, led by nonmonetary gold, pharmaceutical preparations and financial services while a decline was seen in sales of computers, travel and transport. Meanwhile, imports rose at a slower 0.6% to $342.1 billion, led by a surge in pharmaceutical preparations and an increase in nonmonetary gold, computer accessories, transport and financial services while purchases declined for computers, crude oil, electric apparatus and travel. In September, the largest trade deficit was recorded with Ireland ($-18.2 billion), followed by Mexico ($-17.8 billion) and the EU
- October Trade Deficit Falls 39%, Lowest In Years, But U.S. Will Still ...
The U.S. recorded a roughly $14.5 billion deficit with all the countries of the Americas, with Mexico leading by far. The U.S. has a goods surplus with most South American countries. Asian countries, with the exception of Australia and Singapore, are the biggest source of the goods deficit. Low wages and China-state capitalist policies keep that in place. Asia accounts for nearly half of the goods deficit, currently sitting at $409.57 billion for the year. [...] “The January to October goods import level is still ahead of last year and with an effective tariff rate on all goods ranging between 12% and 16% is not enough to reduce imports over time,” said Jeff Ferry, CPA Chief Economist Emeritus. “Trump’s instincts are correct when he said maybe children should make do with two dolls instead of 30. But to lower imports, we need more investment in plants and equipment to drive reshoring. Unfortunately, pushing for lower interest rates combined with a trillion dollar federal budget deficit will not get us there,” he said. Overall, the U.S. goods deficit is now $1.06 trillion. Assuming a $60 billion deficit in November and again in December, the U.S. will post a $1.26 trillion deficit for 2025, bigger than that of $1.21 trillion for 2024. [...] Tariffs are changing the trade picture. The deficit with the European Union in October fell by $10 billion to $7.95 billion. The EU is one of the biggest sources of the U.S. trade deficit, mostly due to pharmaceuticals, capital goods, and automotive. The goods deficit with Canada is also shrinking, this time by nearly half in October to $1.91 billion versus $3.81 billion in September. This may be due to steel and aluminum tariffs.
- [PDF] CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE TRADE DEFICIT
CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE TRADE DEFICIT: AN OVERVIEW March 2000 In recent years, the U.S. trade deficit has grown very large by historical standards, prompting concerns that it is damaging or may pose a threat to the economy. The Senate Committee on Finance asked the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to carry out a study of the trade deficit, its causes, and its effects on the economy. The committee also asked CBO to examine the effects of various federal policies on the trade deficit—especially those that might be considered to reduce or eliminate it. This memorandum summarizes the results of that effort. [...] In the case of the recent U.S. trade deficits, those factors are largely of domestic origin—a long decline in saving, a prolonged upswing in the business cycle, and perhaps a number of changes in the U.S. economy that have made it a particularly productive place for international investors to put their funds. Although some people are harmed by the deficits, others are helped. On balance, the continuing deficits have small, beneficial consequences for the United States. [...] After 1970, however, the almost unbroken string of trade surpluses turned into one of trade deficits, and in the 1980s and 1990s, those deficits grew quite large (see Figure 1). Opponents of freer U.S. trade point to the deficits as evidence of mistaken U.S. and unfair foreign trade policies. Many are concerned that the deficits cause a number of economic ills, such as unemployment and slower economic growth, and they therefore support import restrictions and other trade policies intended to reduce or eliminate the deficits.
- U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, October 2025
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit | Deficit: | $29.4 Billion | –39.0%° | | Exports: | $302.0 Billion | +2.6%° | | Imports: | $331.4 Billion | –3.2%° | | Next release: Thursday, January 29, 2026 (°) Statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable. Data adjusted for seasonality but not price changes Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, January 8, 2026 | Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1) October exports were $302.0 billion, $7.8 billion more than September exports. October imports were $331.4 billion, $11.0 billion less than September imports. [...] An official website of the United States government 1. Home 2. News 3. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, October 2025 # News Release Explore Product View News Release Related Materials Contacts Additional Information EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, Thursday January 8, 2026 BEA 26—01 CB 26–03 # U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, October 2025 The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $29.4 billion in October, down $18.8 billion from $48.1 billion in September, revised. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit
Location Data
Trade Deficit, 25th Street, Five Points, Glenarm Place Historic District, Denver, Colorado, 80294, United States
Coordinates: 39.7581666, -104.9871502
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