AI productivity gains

Topic

A major economic and technological theme discussed at the 'Easts meets West' conference. The idea is that AI will significantly boost worker productivity (e.g., in healthcare, legal, coding), leading to accelerated GDP growth, particularly in the US, and potentially offsetting national debt concerns.


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7/19/2025, 8:28:51 AM

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7/22/2025, 5:14:29 AM

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7/19/2025, 8:31:22 AM

Summary

The current AI boom, which began in the late 2010s and gained international prominence in the 2020s, is driven by rapid advancements in generative AI technologies like large language models and AI image generators, as well as scientific breakthroughs such as protein folding prediction. This period has spurred intense competition and strategic shifts within the technology sector, with companies like Meta heavily investing in AI and pursuing vertical integration, exemplified by Google's Gemini models and Elon Musk's Tesla. While early signals for future productivity gains are very positive, with studies showing an average increase of 25% and up to 66% for specific generative AI tools, and a potential 20% increase in productivity by 2035, some research indicates challenges, with a significant percentage of employees unsure how to achieve expected gains or even reporting decreased productivity. The AI race is also influencing the investment landscape, seeing a revival in the IPO market for AI-levered companies and increased adoption of AI by private equity firms, while the traditional SaaS industry faces disruption. Geopolitical factors, such as China's semiconductor threat to Nvidia's market dominance, add further complexity to this evolving landscape.

Referenced in 1 Document
Research Data
Extracted Attributes
  • Start of AI Boom

    Late 2010s

  • Prominence of AI Boom

    2020s

  • Key Strategy for AI Dominance

    Vertical Integration

  • Productivity Gain (ChatGPT 3.5)

    66%

  • Key AI Technologies Driving Boom

    Generative AI (Large Language Models, AI Image Generators), Protein Folding Prediction

  • Projected Productivity Increase by 2035

    20%

  • Percentage of Companies Mandating AI Tools

    39%

  • Percentage of Companies Encouraging AI Tools

    46%

  • Average Productivity Increase from AI Adoption

    25%

  • Projected Annual GDP Growth by 2030s due to AI

    3%

  • Productivity Gain for Customer Support Agents with AI Assistance

    14%

  • Percentage of C-suite Leaders Expecting AI to Increase Productivity

    96%

Timeline
  • The AI boom began. (Source: Wikipedia)

    Late 2010s

  • The AI boom gained international prominence. (Source: Wikipedia)

    2020s

  • AI integration is projected to increase productivity by 20%. (Source: Vanguard)

    By 2035

  • Potential for annual GDP growth to reach 3% due to AI. (Source: Vanguard)

    2030s

AI boom

The AI boom is an ongoing period of rapid progress in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) that started in the late 2010s before gaining international prominence in the 2020s. Examples include generative AI technologies, such as large language models and AI image generators by companies like OpenAI, as well as scientific advances, such as protein folding prediction led by Google DeepMind. This period is sometimes referred to as an AI spring, to contrast it with previous AI winters.

Web Search Results
  • AI Improves Employee Productivity by 66% - Nielsen Norman Group

    Now we have something to compare against! The 66% productivity gains from AI equate to47 years of natural productivity gainsin the United States. And AI corresponds to88 years of growth in the European Union, which is a third more time than the 66 years that have passed since the formation of the European Community (the precursor to the EU) in 1957. AI is a big deal, indeed! ### Caveats There are three caveats to these findings. [...] First, the 66% productivity gains come from theprevious versions of generative AI(used when the data was collected), as represented by ChatGPT 3.5. We’re already on the next release, which is substantially better.I expect future AI systems to improve even more,especially if they are developed from user-experience insights instead of purely driven by engineers. (Current AI tools have big usability weaknesses.) [...] in business improves users’ performance by 66%, averaged across 3 case studies. More complex tasks have bigger gains, and less-skilled workers benefit the most from AI use.

  • AI is showing "very positive" signs of eventually boosting GDP and ...

    That being said, the early signals of future productivity gains look very, very positive. Some of the academic literature and economic studies that have looked at the increase in productivity that we’ve seen following AI adoption, in a few specific cases, supports our view that large productivity gains are possible. The average increase in productivity is about 25%. Case studies of companies that have adopted AI imply similarly large efficiency gains. And so, you know, there’s a lot of reasons [...] “Until we’ve seen more significant uptake in the actual application of AI, in the regular work production process, I don’t think that we’re going to see as big of an impact on productivity,” says Joseph Briggs, who co-leads the Global Economics team in Goldman Sachs Research. Briggs wrote last year’s AI report with Goldman Sachs economist Devesh Kodnani. “That being said, the early signals of future productivity gains look very, very positive,” he adds. [...] We haven’t seen much of an impact on productivity growth so far. But the reason being is, even though we still see a lot of potential for AI to automate a lot of the things that workers do on a day-to-day basis, thereby saving a lot of time and generating large productivity gains, the adoption rates are just fairly limited right now. The key step, of course, in automating tasks is that people have to start using it. And so until we’ve seen more significant uptake in the actual application of

  • AI's impact on productivity and the workforce - Vanguard

    Boost in productivity:Recent years have seen low productivity growth, partly due to a lack of automation. By 2035, AI integration could increase productivity by 20%, potentially raising annual GDP growth to 3% in the 2030s. Fastest economic growth since the late 1990s:The productivity gains from AI could produce the fastest productivity and economic growth in a generation, significantly enhancing U.S. productivity and economic standards. Related Links Image 6 Article

  • Researchers: AI's Productivity Gains Come at a Cost

    However, this new technology has not yet fully delivered on this productivity promise: Nearly half (47%) of employees using AI say they have no idea how to achieve the productivity gains their employers expect, and 77% say these tools have actually decreased their productivity and added to their workload. [...] Leaders have high hopes that generative AI will help boost productivity, as 96% of C-suite leaders say they expect the use of AI tools to increase their company's overall productivity levels. Already, 39% of companies in our study are mandating the use of AI tools, with an additional 46% encouraging their use. [...] Generative AI and AI efficacy increase productivity. AI efficacy increases engagement and improves job satisfaction. AI technostress induces exhaustion and leads to work — family conflict and low job satisfaction but benefits productivity. Generative AI mitigates the negative effects of technostress.

  • AI Productivity - IBM

    This can include automating routine tasks, analyzing data quickly, optimizing workflows and providing insights that help in decision-making through the integration of AI tools. New technology advancements, like generative AI are changing the landscape for AI and its role in the workplace and overall productivity gains. [...] The goal of AI productivity is to improve output and outcomes while minimizing resource expenditure and ultimately boosting the user experience. A study conducted by the National Bureau of Economic Research backs this, finding that access to AI assistance like GPT increased productivity of customer support agents by 14%.2 Industry newsletter ### The latest AI trends, brought to you by experts [...] The integration of AI into everyday workflows can significantly boost productivity, transforming how individuals and team members collaborate. Some key benefits include: 1. Enhanced time savings 2. Increased efficiency 3. Enhanced decision-making 4. Improved accuracy 5. Better personalization 6. More scalability Mixture of Experts | 27 December 2024 ### Breakthroughs in AI models, agents, hardware and products