Debt to GDP

Topic

The ratio of a country's government debt to its gross domestic product. The CBO report forecasts the US ratio will rise from 120% to 135% by 2036, a key indicator of fiscal unsustainability.


First Mentioned

2/14/2026, 3:56:16 AM

Last Updated

2/14/2026, 4:13:11 AM

Research Retrieved

2/14/2026, 4:13:11 AM

Summary

The debt-to-GDP ratio is a critical macroeconomic metric that compares a country's total government debt to its gross domestic product (GDP), serving as an indicator of a nation's ability to repay its debts. A lower ratio suggests that an economy produces sufficient goods and services to manage its debt without further accumulation, while high ratios can deter creditors or necessitate higher interest rates. In the United States, the ratio surpassed 100% in 2013 and reached a record high of 126.30% in 2020. Recent discussions, such as those on the All-In Podcast, highlight a divide between those who fear a 'Debt Death Spiral' that could threaten programs like Social Security and those who believe AI-driven economic growth will render the debt manageable. Globally, Japan maintains one of the highest ratios at 248.7%, while the Eurozone sets a convergence criterion of 60%.

Referenced in 1 Document
Research Data
Extracted Attributes
  • Definition

    The ratio of a country's accumulated government debt to its annual gross domestic product (GDP).

  • Interpretation

    The number of years of economic output required to equal the total debt if dedicated entirely to repayment.

  • U.S. Record Low Ratio

    31.80% (recorded in 1981).

  • U.S. Record High Ratio

    126.30% (recorded in 2020).

  • Euro Convergence Criterion

    Government debt-to-GDP should be below 60%.

  • Japan Debt-to-GDP Ratio (2025)

    248.7% (highest globally).

  • Sudan Debt-to-GDP Ratio (2025)

    237.1%.

  • U.S. Debt-to-GDP Ratio (FY 2025)

    124% (based on $37.64 trillion in debt and $30.36 trillion in GDP).

  • Singapore Debt-to-GDP Ratio (2025)

    175.8%.

Timeline
  • The United States recorded its record low government debt-to-GDP ratio of 31.80%. (Source: Trading Economics)

    1981-12-31

  • The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio surpassed 100% for the first time as both debt and GDP reached approximately $16.7 trillion. (Source: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data)

    2013-12-31

  • The U.S. government debt-to-GDP reached an all-time high of 126.30% following pandemic-related economic shifts. (Source: Trading Economics)

    2020-12-31

  • The United States recorded a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 124.30%. (Source: Trading Economics)

    2024-12-31

  • The U.S. Treasury updated the fiscal year 2025 debt-to-GDP ratio to 124%. (Source: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data)

    2025-09-30

  • Projected U.S. gross federal debt-to-GDP is expected to trend around 126.80%. (Source: Trading Economics)

    2026-12-31

  • Projected U.S. gross federal debt-to-GDP is expected to reach 128.10%. (Source: Trading Economics)

    2027-12-31

Debt-to-GDP ratio

In economics, the debt-to-GDP ratio is the ratio of a country's accumulation of government debt (measured in units of currency) to its gross domestic product (GDP) (measured in units of currency per year). A low debt-to-GDP ratio indicates that an economy produces goods and services sufficient to pay back debts without incurring further debt. Geopolitical and economic considerations – including interest rates, war, recessions, and other variables – influence the borrowing practices of a nation and the choice to incur further debt. Economists and international institutions caution that there is no universally agreed "safe" or "dangerous" debt-to-GDP threshold; the sustainability of public debt depends on factors such as growth prospects, interest rates, and fiscal institutions. It should not be confused with a deficit-to-GDP ratio, which, for countries running budget deficits, measures a country's annual net fiscal loss in a given year (government budget balance, or the net change in debt per annum) as a percentage share of that country's GDP; for countries running budget surpluses, a surplus-to-GDP ratio measures a country's annual net fiscal gain as a share of that country's GDP. Particularly in macroeconomics, various debt-to-GDP ratios can be calculated. The most commonly used ratio is the government debt divided by the gross domestic product (GDP), which reflects the government's finances, while another common ratio is the total debt to GDP, which reflects the finances of the nation as a whole. The debt-to-GDP ratio is technically not a dimensionless quantity, but a unit of time, being equal to the amount of years over which the accumulated economic product equals the debt.

Web Search Results
  • Debt-to-GDP ratio - Wikipedia

    In economics, the debt-to-GDP ratio is the ratio of a country's accumulation of government debt (measured in units of currency) to its gross domestic product (GDP) (measured in units of currency per year). A low debt-to-GDP ratio indicates that an economy produces goods and services sufficient to pay back debts without incurring further debt. Geopolitical and economic considerations – including interest rates, war, recessions, and other variables – influence the borrowing practices of a nation and the choice to incur further debt. Economists and international institutions caution that there is no universally agreed "safe" or "dangerous" debt-to-GDP threshold; the sustainability of public debt depends on factors such as growth prospects, interest rates, and fiscal institutions. [...] It should not be confused with a deficit-to-GDP ratio, which, for countries running budget deficits, measures a country's annual net fiscal loss in a given year (government budget balance, or the net change in debt per annum) as a percentage share of that country's GDP; for countries running budget surpluses, a surplus-to-GDP ratio measures a country's annual net fiscal gain as a share of that country's GDP. Particularly in macroeconomics, various debt-to-GDP ratios can be calculated. The most commonly used ratio is the government debt divided by the gross domestic product (GDP), which reflects the government's finances, while another common ratio is the total debt to GDP, which reflects the finances of the nation as a whole. [...] At the end of the 1st quarter of 2021, the United States public debt-to-GDP ratio was 127.5%. Two-thirds of US public debt is owned by US citizens, banks, corporations, and the Federal Reserve Bank; approximately one-third of US public debt is held by foreign countries – particularly China and Japan. In comparison, less than 5% of Italian and Japanese public debt is held by foreign countries. ## Applications [edit] Debt-to-GDP measures the financial leverage of an economy.[citation needed] One of the Euro convergence criteria was that government debt-to-GDP should be below 60%.

  • Debt to GDP Ratio by Country 2026 - World Population Review

    Debt-to-GDP ratio is an economic metric that compares a country’s government debt to its gross domestic product (GDP) (which represents the value of all goods and services produced by the country). Typically used to determine the stability and health of a nation’s economy, debt-to-GDP ratio is expressed as a percentage and offers an at-a-glance estimate of a country’s ability to pay back its current debts. It is typically evaluated alongside related metrics such as GDP per capita, GDP growth, GNP, and GNI per capita. [...] #### Snapshot Debt-to-GDP ratio, an economic metric comparing a country's government debt to its GDP, is pivotal for evaluating economic stability and repayment ability. Japan, with the world's second-highest debt-to-GDP ratio, saw its debt surge due to government bailouts and stimulus initiatives following the stock market crash of 1992. The United States, despite having the world's largest GDP, ranks 12th in debt-to-GDP ratio, driven by high military spending, tax cuts, and underfunded programs. [...] As of December 2020, the nation with the highest debt-to-GDP ratio is Venezuela, and by a considerable margin. The South American country has what may be the world’s largest reserves of oil, but the state-owned oil company is said to be poorly managed, and Venezuela’s GDP has plummeted in recent years. At the same time, Venezuela has taken out massive loans, adding to its debt burden, and president Nicolas Maduro has made questionable moves to slow the country’s rampant inflation.

  • Understanding the National Debt | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data

    2025 Fiscal Year 124% Debt to GDP Visit the Historical Debt Outstanding dataset to explore and download this data. The GDP data is sourced from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Please note: This chart is updated as new GDP data is released, even if new debt data is available. Last Updated: September 30, 2025 The average GDP for fiscal year 2025 was $30.36 T, which was less than the U.S. debt of $37.64 T. This resulted in a Debt to GDP Ratio of 124 percent. Generally, a higher Debt to GDP ratio indicates a government will have greater difficulty in repaying its debt. Visualizing the debt - How much is $39 trillion dollars? toggle contents Breaking Down the Debt [...] Last Updated: September 30, 2025 Over the past 100 years, the U.S. federal debt has increased from $380 B in 1925 to $37.64 T in 2025. Comparing a country’s debt to its gross domestic product (GDP) reveals the country’s ability to pay down its debt. This ratio is considered a better indicator of a country’s fiscal situation than just the national debt number because it shows the burden of debt relative to the country’s total economic output and therefore its ability to repay it. The U.S. debt to GDP ratio surpassed 100% in 2013 when both debt and GDP were approximately 16.7 trillion. Federal Debt Trends Over Time, FY 1948 – 2025 Debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2025 Fiscal Year 124% Debt to GDP

  • Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Formula and What It Can Tell You - Investopedia

    Debt to GDP = Total Debt of Country Total GDP of Country \begin{aligned} &\text{Debt to GDP} = \frac{ \text{Total Debt of Country} }{ \text{Total GDP of Country} } \\ \end{aligned} ​Debt to GDP=Total GDP of CountryTotal Debt of Country​​ A country that's able to continue paying interest on its debt without refinancing and without hampering economic growth is generally considered to be stable. A country with a high debt-to-GDP ratio typically has trouble paying off external debts, also called public debts. These are any balances owed to outside lenders. Creditors are apt to seek higher interest rates when lending in such scenarios. ### Important Extravagantly high debt-to-GDP ratios may deter creditors from lending money altogether. ## What the Debt-to-GDP Ratio Can Tell You [...] ## How Does Modern Monetary Theory View National Debt? Modern monetary theory suggests that sovereign countries don't have to rely on taxes or borrowing for spending because they can print as much as they need. Their budgets aren't constrained such is the case with regular households so their policies aren't shaped by fears of rising national debt. ## Which Countries Have the Highest Debt-to-GDP Ratios? Japan had the highest debt-to-GDP ratio of 248.7% as of 2025. Next is Sudan at 237.1%, followed by Singapore at 175.8%. ## The Bottom Line The debt-to-GDP ratio is a metric that helps understand a country's ability to pay back its debts. A lower debt-to-GDP ratio is generally ideal because it signals a country is producing more than it owes, placing it on a strong financial footing. [...] ## What Is the Debt-to-GDP Ratio? The debt-to-GDP ratio is a metric that compares a country's public debt to its gross domestic product (GDP). It reliably indicates a country’s ability to pay back its debts by comparing what the country owes with what it produces. The debt-to-GDP ratio is often expressed as a percentage and it can also be interpreted as the number of years necessary to pay back debt if GDP is dedicated entirely to debt repayment. ### Key Takeaways ### Investopedia Answers Debt-to-GDP Ratio Debt-to-GDP Ratio:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/Term-Definitions_Debt-to-GDP-ratio-Final-81dfb807989544fb967849366c4acb3d.jpg) Investopedia / Mira Norian ## Formula and Calculation of the Debt-to-GDP Ratio The debt-to-GDP ratio can be calculated by this formula: Debt to GDP =

  • United States Gross Federal Debt to GDP

    The United States recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 124.30 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2024. Government Debt to GDP in the United States averaged 66.38 percent of GDP from 1940 until 2024, reaching an all time high of 126.30 percent of GDP in 2020 and a record low of 31.80 percent of GDP in 1981. source: Office of Management and Budget, The White House ### Government Debt to GDP in the United States is expected to reach 125.40 percent of GDP by the end of 2025, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Gross Federal Debt to GDP is projected to trend around 126.80 percent of GDP in 2026 and 128.10 percent of GDP in 2027, according to our econometric models. percent of GDP 5Y10Y25YMAX [...] | Related | Last | Previous | Unit | Reference | --- --- | Asylum Applications | 892904.00 | 498861.00 | Persons | Dec 2024 | | Credit Rating | 97.00 | | | Jan 2026 | | Fiscal Expenditure | 629133.00 | 509279.00 | USD Million | Dec 2025 | | Government Budget | -6.40 | -6.20 | percent of GDP | Dec 2024 | | Monthly Budget Statement | -144749.00 | -173277.00 | USD Million | Dec 2025 | | Government Debt | 38514009.00 | 38396211.00 | USD Million | Dec 2025 | | Government Debt to GDP | 124.30 | 122.30 | percent of GDP | Dec 2024 | | Government Revenues | 484384.00 | 336002.00 | USD Million | Dec 2025 | | Government Spending | 4015.00 | 3993.00 | USD Billion | Sep 2025 | | Government Spending to GDP | 39.70 | 34.38 | percent of GDP | Dec 2024 | | Holidays | | | | | [...] []( United States Gross Federal Debt to GDP Generally, Government debt as a percent of GDP is used by investors to measure a country ability to make future payments on its debt, thus affecting the country borrowing costs and government bond yields. | | Actual | Previous | Highest | Lowest | Dates | Unit | Frequency | | --- --- --- --- | | 124.30 | 122.30 | 126.30 | 31.80 | 1940 - 2024 | percent of GDP | Yearly | | Compare: Government Debt to GDP by Country Related US 10-Year Yield Steadies Ahead of Fed Dollar Languishes at Over 4-Month Lows US Futures Steady After Positive Session Nucor earnings below expectations at 1.73 USD Texas Manufacturing Activity Improves Sharply in January CFNAI Increases in November US Durable Goods Orders Surge in November