GDP Growth (4.9%)
The unexpectedly high 4.9% year-over-year GDP growth in Q3 2023 for the US, which confounds recession expectations and creates a divergence between the strong 'Main Street' economy and a weaker 'Wall Street' outlook.
First Mentioned
1/12/2026, 2:35:46 AM
Last Updated
1/12/2026, 2:36:55 AM
Research Retrieved
1/12/2026, 2:36:55 AM
Summary
GDP growth of 4.9% represents a significant annualized increase in the total value of goods and services produced within an economy, specifically noted in the United States during the third quarter of 2023. This growth occurred in a complex economic environment characterized by high interest rates, which have contributed to a widening divergence between 'Main Street' (the real economy) and 'Wall Street' (financial markets). While the 4.9% figure indicates robust performance, it is contrasted by systemic risks such as unrealized losses in the banking sector and a severe venture capital market struggle in Silicon Valley, where startup failures have increased and valuations are being reset to prioritize profitability over growth. Globally, this metric is distinct from GDP per capita and is influenced by factors such as consumer spending, exports, and government expenditure, even as geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Ukraine challenges global economic predictability.
Referenced in 1 Document
Research Data
Extracted Attributes
Growth Rate
4.9% (Annualized)
Primary Region
United States
Counter-Factors
High interest rates and venture capital market struggles
Economic Drivers
Consumer spending, exports, and government spending
Historical Context
Occurred during a period of global geopolitical instability and a post-Cold War unipolar transition
Measurement Definition
Percentage change in the total value of all final goods and services produced within a country compared to the previous year/quarter
Timeline
- United States GDP Growth Rate reaches a record low of -28.00% during the second quarter. (Source: Web Search: Trading Economics)
2020-06-30
- United States GDP Growth Rate reaches an all-time high of 34.90% during the third quarter. (Source: Web Search: Trading Economics)
2020-09-30
- The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports a 4.9% annualized GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2023. (Source: Document e56e229d-0037-4cf0-acf6-e8b3670587e1)
2023-10-26
- All-In Podcast Episode 151 analyzes the 4.9% GDP growth and its relationship to high interest rates and the venture capital market downturn. (Source: Document e56e229d-0037-4cf0-acf6-e8b3670587e1)
2023-10-27
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases initial estimate for Q3 2025 GDP growth at 4.3%. (Source: Web Search: BEA)
2025-12-23
Wikipedia
View on WikipediaList of countries by real GDP growth rate
This article includes lists of countries and dependent territories sorted by their real gross domestic product growth rate; the rate of growth of the total value of all final goods and services produced within a state in a given year compared with the previous year. The figures are from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook Database, unless otherwise specified. This list is not to be confused with the list of countries by real GDP per capita growth, which is the percentage change of GDP per person taking into account the changing population of the country. List of countries by GNI per capita growth measures changes in gross national income per capita.
Web Search Results
- United States GDP Growth Rate - Trading Economics
The GDP in the US advanced an annualized 4.3% in Q3 2025, the most in two years compared to 3.8% in Q2, and forecasts of 3.3%, the delayed estimate showed. The growth mainly reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending. Consumer spending rose 3.5%, the most so far this ...year (vs 2.5% in Q2), led by both goods (3.1% vs 2.2%) and services (3.7% vs 2.6%), mostly health care, international travel, information processing equipment and prescription drugs. Fixed investment continued to rise although at a slower pace (1% vs 4.4%), supported by equipment (5.4% vs 8.5%) and intellectual property products (5.4% vs 15%) while investment in structures (-6.3% vs -7.5%) and residential (-5.1% vs -5.1%) continued to decline. Also, exports rebounded sharply (8.8% vs -1.8%) [...] The GDP in the US advanced an annualized 4.3% in Q3 2025, the most in two years compared to 3.8% in Q2, and forecasts of 3.3%, the delayed estimate showed. The growth mainly reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending. Consumer spending rose 3.5%, the most so far this year (vs 2.5% in Q2), led by both goods (3.1% vs 2.2%) and services (3.7% vs 2.6%), mostly health care, international travel, information processing equipment and prescription drugs. Fixed investment continued to rise although at a slower pace (1% vs 4.4%), supported by equipment (5.4% vs 8.5%) and intellectual property products (5.4% vs 15%) while investment in structures (-6.3% vs -7.5%) and residential (-5.1% vs -5.1%) continued to decline. Also, exports rebounded sharply (8.8% vs -1.8%) due [...] The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 4.30 percent in the third quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. GDP Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.20 percent from 1947 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 34.90 percent in the third quarter of 2020 and a record low of -28.00 percent in the second quarter of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States GDP Growth Rate - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on January of 2026.
- Economic Outlook: Global growth to remain resilient in 2025 ... - OECD
Growth prospects vary significantly across regions. GDP growth in the United States is projected to be 2.8% in 2025, before slowing to 2.4% in 2026. In the euro area, the recovery in real household incomes, tight labour markets and reductions in policy interest rates continue to drive growth. Euro area GDP growth is projected at 1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. Growth in Japan is projected to expand by 1.5% in 2025 but then decline to 0.6% in 2026. China is expected to continue to slow, with GDP growth of 4.7% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.
- Global Economic Outlook: slowing amid persistent supply shocks - EY
UK economic momentum has weakened following a politically sensitive Autumn Budget, with GDP growth projected at 1.5% in 2025, slowing to 1.1% in 2026 as higher taxes and lingering trade frictions weigh on activity. Unemployment is projected to remain near 4.9% in 2025 and easing only slightly to 4.8% by the close of 2026. This limited improvement reflects persistent labor market softness and modest job losses, with higher employment taxes weighing on hiring activity. Inflation has likely peaked and is forecast to decline from 3.7% in 2025 Q4 to 2.3% in 2026 Q4, aided by easing energy costs and slowing wage growth. This disinflationary trend should allow the BoE to ease policy cautiously, bringing the policy rate to 3.5% by the end of 2026. ## [...] India’s economy remains resilient with real GDP growth expected to ease modestly in the coming year, still supported by solid domestic demand, resilient services activity and GST-driven consumption strength. Private investment is improving but remains sensitive to tariff-related demand risks, while weak exports — particularly to the US — highlight rising external vulnerabilities amid an unresolved trade deal. We expect real GDP growth will moderate from 7.6% in 2025 to 6.8% in 2026. CPI inflation remains benign, with CPI at a record low of 0.3% y/y in October 2025, well below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) midpoint target of 4%. The RBI unanimously cut the repo rate by 25bp to 5.25% in December 2025 meeting and retained a neutral stance, while also announcing government bond [...] Emerging markets continue to show uneven resilience, with aggregate growth easing modestly from 4.5% in 2025 to 4.1% in 2026. India stands out with projected growth of about 7.6% in 2025 and 6.8% in 2026, supported by strong infrastructure investment, robust domestic demand and expanding services-sector momentum. China faces intensifying headwinds, including aging demographics, youth unemployment, underconsumption, excess capacity and persistent deflationary pressures. Despite policy support, growth is expected to slow from 4.9% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026. In Latin America, Brazil remains exposed to fiscal fragilities and inflation stickiness, while Argentina continues to face stabilization challenges amid high inflation and limited policy space.
- GDP by Country (2025) - Worldometer
| # | Country | GDP | GDP (Full Value) | GDP Growth | GDP per Capita | Share of World GDP | --- --- --- | 1 | United States | $29.18 trillion | $29,184,890,000,000 | 2.8% | $85,810 | 26.23% | | 2 | China | $18.74 trillion | $18,743,803,170,827 | 4.98% | $13,303 | 16.85% | | 3 | Germany | $4.66 trillion | $4,659,929,336,891 | −0.24% | $55,800 | 4.19% | | 4 | Japan | $4.03 trillion | $4,026,210,821,147 | 0.08% | $32,476 | 3.62% | | 5 | India | $3.91 trillion | $3,912,686,168,582 | 6.48% | $2,697 | 3.52% | | 6 | United Kingdom | $3.64 trillion | $3,643,834,188,783 | 1.1% | $52,637 | 3.28% | | 7 | France | $3.16 trillion | $3,162,079,073,496 | 1.17% | $46,150 | 2.84% | | 8 | Italy | $2.37 trillion | $2,372,774,547,793 | 0.73% | $40,226 | 2.13% | [...] | # | Country | GDP | GDP (Full Value) | GDP Growth | GDP per Capita | --- --- --- | | 1 | United States | $30.62 trillion | $30,615,743,000,000 | 2% | $89,599 | | 2 | China | $19.4 trillion | $19,398,577,000,000 | 4.8% | $13,806 | | 3 | Germany | $5.01 trillion | $5,013,574,000,000 | 0.2% | $59,925 | | 4 | Japan | $4.28 trillion | $4,279,828,000,000 | 1.1% | $34,713 | | 5 | India | $4.13 trillion | $4,125,213,000,000 | 6.6% | $2,818 | | 6 | United Kingdom | $3.96 trillion | $3,958,780,000,000 | 1.3% | $56,661 | | 7 | France | $3.36 trillion | $3,361,557,000,000 | 0.7% | $48,982 | | 8 | Italy | $2.54 trillion | $2,543,677,000,000 | 0.5% | $43,161 | | 9 | Russia | $2.54 trillion | $2,540,656,000,000 | 0.6% | $17,446 | [...] | 10 | Canada | $2.28 trillion | $2,283,599,000,000 | 1.2% | $54,935 | | 11 | Brazil | $2.26 trillion | $2,256,910,000,000 | 2.4% | $10,578 | | 12 | Spain | $1.89 trillion | $1,891,371,000,000 | 2.9% | $38,040 | | 13 | Mexico | $1.86 trillion | $1,862,740,000,000 | 1% | $13,967 | | 14 | South Korea | $1.86 trillion | $1,858,572,000,000 | 0.9% | $35,962 | | 15 | Australia | $1.83 trillion | $1,829,508,000,000 | 1.8% | $65,946 | | 16 | Turkey | $1.57 trillion | $1,565,471,000,000 | 3.5% | $18,198 | | 17 | Indonesia | $1.44 trillion | $1,443,256,000,000 | 4.9% | $5,074 | | 18 | Netherlands | $1.32 trillion | $1,320,635,000,000 | 1.4% | $73,174 | | 19 | Saudi Arabia | $1.27 trillion | $1,268,535,000,000 | 4% | $35,231 | | 20 | Poland | $1.04 trillion | $1,039,619,000,000 | 3.2% | $28,485 |
- Gross Domestic Product | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Q3 2025 (Initial)+4.3% Q2 2025+3.8% Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the initial estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. Current Release Current Release:December 23, 2025 Next Release:January 22, 2026 #### Gross Domestic Product, '25 Chart Image 2: Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter × #### Gross Domestic Product, '25 Chart Image 3