US vs China Manufacturing

Extracted Attributes

• US Strategic Advantage

  Innovation and software leadership

• China Strategic Advantage

  Cost-effective production and scale

• Global Trade Impact (2025)

  Projected 0.2% loss of global merchandise trade

• US Manufacturing Output (2024)

  $2.91 trillion (17.3% of global share)

• China Tariff on US Goods (2025)

  125%

• China Manufacturing Output (2024)

  $4.66 trillion (27.7% of global share)

• US Tariff on Chinese Goods (2025)

  145%

Timeline

• The U.S. begins imposing tariffs and trade barriers on China to address alleged unfair trade practices and IP theft. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2018-01-01

• A phase-one trade agreement is reached, though China later fails to meet the $200 billion import target due to the pandemic. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2020-01-01

• The Trump presidential campaign proposes a 60% tariff on Chinese goods; Biden administration maintains existing levies on EVs and solar panels. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2024-01-01

• Conflict escalates under the second Trump administration with reciprocal tariffs reaching 145% (US) and 125% (China). (Source: Wikipedia)

  2025-01-01

• CES 2026 panel identifies Physical AI and self-driving technology as the primary arenas for US-China manufacturing competition. (Source: Document c08935b9-87d2-439d-a5ee-c1b4d7dc4dcf)

  2026-01-01

• Projected date for humanoid robotics to become a dominant factor in the global manufacturing landscape. (Source: Document c08935b9-87d2-439d-a5ee-c1b4d7dc4dcf)

  2027-01-01

China–United States trade war

An economic conflict between China and the United States has been ongoing since January 2018, when U.S. president Donald Trump began imposing tariffs and other trade barriers on China with the aim of forcing it to make changes to what the U.S. has said are longstanding unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft. The first Trump administration stated that these practices may contribute to the U.S.–China trade deficit, and that the Chinese government requires the transfer of American technology to China. In response to the trade measures, CCP general secretary Xi Jinping's administration accused the Trump administration of engaging in nationalist protectionism and took retaliatory action. Following the trade war's escalation through 2019, the two sides reached a tense phase-one agreement in January 2020; however, a temporary collapse in goods trade around the globe during the COVID-19 pandemic together with a short recession diminished the chance of meeting the target, China failed to buy the $200 billion worth of additional imports specified as part of it. By the end of Trump's first presidency, the trade war was widely characterized by American media outlets as a failure for the United States. The Biden administration kept the tariffs in place and added additional levies on Chinese goods such as electric vehicles and solar panels. In 2024, the Trump presidential campaign proposed a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. 2025 marked a significant escalation of the conflict under the second Trump administration. A series of increasing tariffs led to the U.S. imposing a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, and China imposing a 125% tariff on American goods in response; these measures are forecast to cause a 0.2% loss of global merchandise trade. Despite this, both countries have excluded certain items from their tariff lists and continue to try and find a resolution to the trade war.

Web Search Results

• China is the world's sole manufacturing superpower: A line sketch of ...

  Figure 4, left panel, shows that the US relies far more on Chinese manufacturing production than vice versa. 2 While shocking at first sight, this should not be unexpected. It is natural that a country with 11% of the world output buys more from a country that produces 35% than vice versa, but the numbers are astounding. China was more exposed to US inputs before 2002, but the US has had greater exposure since then. In 2020, the US was about three times more exposed to Chinese manufacturing production than vice versa. Foreign Production Exposure: eXport side (FPEX). This indicator reflects the share of a nation’s gross output of intermediate goods that is exported to a particular partner. It is a measure of exposure on the sales side. [...] Figure 4, right panel, shows the expected result: China is and always has been more reliant on sales to the US than the other way round. In the mid-2000s, China’s dependence on the US was ten times the reverse dependence, but the asymmetry has narrowed substantially. Putting together the pieces, this shows a remarkable, historical, world-shaping asymmetry in supply chain reliance between China and other major manufacturing countries. Politicians may wish to decouple their economies from China. These data suggest that decoupling would be difficult, slow, expensive, and disruptive – especially to G7 manufacturers. For explicit estimates, see the simulation studies by Felbermayr et al. (2023) and Goes and Bekkers (2022). [...] 1. Figure A1 in the Annex shows the shares from a value-added perspective. The G7 decline in manufacturing value added has been less brutal than it was in gross production, and the US’s value-added share has risen slightly since 2010. Recall that gross output is the total sales of manufactured goods while value added is this minus the value of intermediate inputs. This is why China’s dominance is less marked in value-added terms since it has specialized in sectors, like electronics, that are especially intensive in the use of intermediate inputs (so their gross production exceeds their value added by a margin that is unusual by world standards). Likewise, China's world manufacturing GDP share is less dominant than its production share, but it is still dominant. In 2020, for instance, its

• Global manufacturing scorecard: How the US compares to 18 other ...

  ## Top countries in terms of manufacturing output China leads the world in terms of manufacturing output, with over $2.01 trillion in output (see Table 1). This is followed by the United States ($1.867 trillion), Japan ($1.063 trillion), Germany ($700 billion), and South Korea ($372 billion). Manufacturing constitutes 27 percent of China’s overall national output, which accounts for 20 percent of the world’s manufacturing output. In the United States, it represents 12 percent of the nation’s output and 18 percent of the world’s capacity. In Japan, manufacturing is 19 percent of the country’s national output and 10 percent of the world total. Overall, China, the United States, and Japan comprise 48 percent of the world’s manufacturing output. [...] Table 1: Leading countries on manufacturing output, 201 | Country | Manufacturing Output (USD in billions) | Percent of National Output | Percent of Global Manufacturing | --- --- | | China | $2,010 | 27% | 20% | | United States | 1,867 | 12 | 18 | | Japan | 1,063 | 19 | 10 | | Germany | 700 | 23 | 7 | | South Korea | 372 | 29 | 4 | | India | 298 | 16 | 3 | | France | 274 | 11 | 3 | | Italy | 264 | 16 | 3 | | United Kingdom | 244 | 10 | 2 | | Taiwan | 185 | 31 | 2 | | Mexico | 175 | 19 | 2 | | Spain | 153 | 14 | 2 | | Canada | 148 | 11 | 1 | | Brazil | 146 | 11 | 1 | | Russian Federation | 139 | 11 | 1 | | Turkey | 125 | 18 | 1 | | Indonesia | 115 | 22 | 1 | | Poland | 100 | 20 | 1 | | Switzerland | 93 | 18 | 1 | | Netherlands | 88 | 12 | 1 | | | [...] > The U.S. has, until recently, benefited from open trade policies. For manufacturing growth to continue, the country should avoid tariff wars or overly restricted trade policies.

• Top 10 Manufacturing Countries in 2025 | Safeguard Global

  1. China – Global manufacturing output (2024): $4.66 trillion, or 27.7% of the global share 2. United States – Global manufacturing output (2024): $2.91 trillion, or 17.3% of the global share 3. Japan – Global manufacturing output (2024): $867 billion, or 5.15% of the global share 4. Germany – Global manufacturing output (2024): $830 billion, or 4.93% of the global share 5. India – Global manufacturing output (2024): $490 billion, or 2.91% of the global share 6. South Korea – Global manufacturing output (2023): $416 billion, or 2.47% of the global share 7. Mexico – Global manufacturing output (2024): $364 billion, or 2.16% of the global share 8. Italy – Global manufacturing output (2024): $345 billion, or 2.05% of the global share [...] Related: Pros and cons of doing business in China Hiring in China involves navigating a complex regulatory environment. Foreign employers must adhere to strict labor laws, which mandate employment contracts, working hours, and social insurance contributions. Compliance with local regulations, such as the Labor Contract Law and the Social Insurance Law, is crucial. Building a manufacturing workforce in China is feasible due to the large labor pool, but understanding and adhering to the regulatory landscape is essential to avoid legal issues and penalties. 2. United States – Global manufacturing output (2024): $2.91 trillion, or 17.3% of the global share [...] Key takeawaysIntroduction to manufacturingOverview of global manufacturing outputEconomic factors influencing manufacturingManufacturing incentives1. China – Global manufacturing output (2024): $4.66 trillion, or 27.7% of the global share2. United States – Global manufacturing output (2024): $2.91 trillion, or 17.3% of the global share3. Japan – Global manufacturing output (2024): $867 billion, or 5.15% of the global share4. Germany – Global manufacturing output (2024): $830 billion, or 4.93% of the global share5. India – Global manufacturing output (2024): $490 billion, or 2.91% of the global share6. South Korea – Global manufacturing output (2023): $416 billion, or 2.47% of the global share7. Mexico – Global manufacturing output (2024): $364 billion, or 2.16% of the global share8. Italy

• The U.S.-China Trade Relationship | Council on Foreign Relations

  ## Introduction U.S. trade with China has grown enormously in recent decades and is crucial for both countries. Today, China is one of the largest export markets for U.S. goods and services (second to Mexico), and the United States is the top export market for China. This trade—much of which grew after China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001—has brought lower prices to U.S. consumers and higher profits for U.S. corporations. But it also comes with costs, notably the loss of American jobs due to import competition, automation, and multinational companies moving manufacturing overseas. [...] ## What are the stakes of the relationship? The United States and China are the two largest economies in the world; the status of their trade relationship has compounding implications for both countries and the global economy. Combined, their economies comprised 43 percent of the global gross domestic product (GDP) and nearly 48 percent of global manufacturing output in 2023, according to the World Bank. [...] This economic reality “underscores the futility of decoupling efforts” by Washington and Beijing, CFR Senior Fellow for China Studies Zongyuan Zoe Liu writes, and policymakers have demonstrated greater concern over the intertwined trade relationship in recent decades. ## Is there a trade war between the United States and China? Yes. Many experts say escalations have not subsided since 2018, when Trump imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods. At the time, the president claimed the levies would decrease the U.S. trade deficit with China, bring back manufacturing jobs to the United States, and force China to reform its trade practices, including intellectual property (IP) theft. Few of these promises materialized.

• Friendshoring? Nearshoring? Reshoring? How the U.S. Trade ...

  Since the 1990s, U.S. trade partners have remained mostly high-income countries, with the U.S. exporting goods for processing and importing finished goods. U.S. imports from China rose from 6% in 1994 to 22% in 2017, then fell to 17% by 2022. Imports from Vietnam, Taiwan, India, and Mexico have increased since 2017. Despite reduced imports from China, indirect supply chains with China, especially through Vietnam and Mexico, are strengthening. Upticks in U.S. manufacturing and employment counts have slowed the decline in U.S. manufacturing in total employment, but the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain. China’s growing trade with “friendshore” and “nearshore” nations like Vietnam and Mexico suggests China-owned plants may remain important in U.S. supply chains. [...] Not necessarily a shift away from dependence on China. Indirect supply chain links between the U.S. and China remain strong, and in some cases are growing. While U.S. import shares from Vietnam and Mexico have grown, import shares from China into these countries have increased even faster — Vietnam’s from 28% to 33% (2017–2022) and Mexico’s from 18% to 20% (2017–2022). Mexico’s imports from the U.S. have declined over this period (46% to 44%). These trends are mirrored by rising Chinese FDI in Vietnam and Mexico, especially in manufacturing. To the extent that China’s exports comprise parts and components assembled into final goods and sent to the U.S., China would ultimately continue to be a relevant player in the upstream stages of U.S. supply chains.