Shiller PE

Extracted Attributes

• Creator

  Robert J. Shiller

• Historical Mean

  17.38

• Primary Use Case

  Assessing long-term equity market valuations (S&P 500)

• Alternative Names

  CAPE, Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio, P/E 10 ratio

• Historical Median

  16.09

• Historical Maximum

  44.19 (December 1999)

• Historical Minimum

  4.78 (December 1920)

• Calculation Formula

  Current price divided by the 10-year moving average of inflation-adjusted earnings

Timeline

• The Shiller PE ratio reaches its historical minimum of 4.78. (Source: undefined)

  1920-12-01

• The Shiller PE ratio reaches its historical maximum of 44.19 during the peak of the Dotcom Bubble. (Source: undefined)

  1999-12-01

• The Shiller PE ratio is recorded at 36.48, representing a highly elevated valuation level. (Source: undefined)

  2026-01-01

Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio

The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE, Shiller P/E, or P/E 10 ratio) is a stock valuation measure usually applied to the US S&P 500 equity market. It is defined as price divided by the average of ten years of earnings (moving average), adjusted for inflation. As such, it is principally used to assess likely future returns from equities over timescales of 10 to 20 years, with higher than average CAPE values implying lower than average long-term annual average returns. The ratio was invented by American economist Robert J. Shiller. The ratio is used to gauge whether a stock, or group of stocks, is undervalued or overvalued by comparing its current market price to its inflation-adjusted historical earnings record. It is a variant of the more popular price to earning ratio and is calculated by dividing the current price of a stock by its average inflation-adjusted earnings over the last 10 years. Using average earnings over the last decade helps to smooth out the impact of business cycles and other events and gives a better picture of a company's sustainable earning power. It is not intended as an indicator of impending market crashes, although high CAPE values have been associated with such events.

Web Search Results

• Shiller PE (CAPE Ratio)

  The difference between the Shiller P/E ratio and the traditional P/E ratio is the time period covered in the numerator, as we mentioned earlier. In the following section, we’ll discuss the reason that the traditional P/E ratio can be deceiving to investors at times. The drawback to the traditional P/E ratio comes down to the concept of cyclicality, which describes the fluctuations in economic activity over time. Certain sectors might be less prone to the negative effects of cyclicality, i.e. “defensive” sectors,” but the recurring pattern of periods of economic expansion and contraction are natural and, for the most part, inevitable in a free market. [...] In practice, the use-case of the CAPE ratio is to track broad market indices, namely the S&P 500 index. Traditional P/E Ratio → The traditional P/E ratio uses the reported earnings per share (EPS) from the trailing twelve months as the denominator. CAPE Ratio (Shiller PE 10) → Conversely, the CAPE ratio is unique in that the average annual earnings per share (EPS) over the trailing ten years is used, instead. However, taking the average of a company’s reported EPS figures in the past ten years neglects a critical factor that affects the financial performance of all corporations, which is inflation. In economics, the term “inflation” is a measure of the rate of change in the pricing of goods and services within a country across a specified time frame. [...] Prudence Principle: Per GAAP accounting standards, the prudence concept dictates that a company’s financial statements are required to be conservative with regard to not overestimating revenue while not understating its costs. Lagging Indicator: Therefore, many perceive the CAPE ratio as a lagging market indicator that is better suited for understanding the past and current market sentiment, yet not a reliable predictor of future market performance (i.e. bear market or bull market). Changing Rules and Norms: Not to mention, accounting rules change over time, as well as corporate actions (e.g. the prevalence of stock buybacks in the modern day).

• The Shiller PE (CAPE) Ratio: Current Market Valuations - Lyn Alden

  Sector concentration is relevant. A country with a high share of technology companies enjoying fast growth will naturally have a high CAPE. On the other hand, a country mostly concentrated in slow-growing banks will have a lower CAPE. It’s always relative, and important to compare apples to apples. [...] This metric was developed by Robert Shiller and popularized during the Dotcom Bubble when he argued (correctly) that equities were highly overvalued. For that reason, it’s also casually referred to as the “Shiller PE”, meaning the Shiller variant of the typical price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of stock. It’s most commonly applied to the S&P 500, but can be and is applied to any stock index. The main benefit is that it is one of several broad valuation metrics that can help you determine how much of your portfolio should reasonably be invested into equities based on the current relationship between the price you pay for them and the value you get in return in the form of earnings. [...] In other words, whenever the CAPE ratio of the market is high, it means stocks are overvalued, and returns over the next 20 years will likely be poor. In contrast, whenever the ratio is low, it means the stocks are undervalued, and returns over the next 20 years will likely be good. This is intuitive. When stocks are cheap, they can increase in price both from increasing corporate earnings and from an increasing price-to-earnings ratio on that figure. But when stocks are already expensive, and already have a high price-to-earnings ratio, they have a lot less room to grow and a lot more room to fall the next time there’s a recession or market correction. Since that time, more research groups have analyzed the relationship between CAPE and long-term returns on a broader scale.

• Schiller PE Ratio | Official Data

  U.S. Economy » Shiller PE # Shiller PE (CAPE) The Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500 is based on data from Standard and Poor's and Robert Shiller's book, Irrational Exuberance. Shiller PE is also known as CAPE (Cyclically-Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio) or P/E 10 ratio. It is the current S&P 500 price divided by a moving average of earnings over the previous ten years, adjusted for inflation. The Shiller PE is 36.48 as of the beginning of this month. ## Shiller PE Chart, 1871-2026 Values went from 0 in 1871 to 36.48 in 2026. This graph displays values from January 1st of each year. Shiller PE (CAPE) ## Shiller PE Table, 1871-2026 (Yearly) This table displays Shiller PE (CAPE) on January 1st of each year. [...] ## Shiller PE Table, 1871-2026 (Monthly) This table shows 12-month trailing Shiller PE (CAPE) for the first of each month. [...] | 1986 | 6 | 13.89 | 0.33 | 2.42 | | 1986 | 5 | 13.56 | 0.01 | 0.06 | | 1986 | 4 | 13.55 | 0.36 | 2.76 | | 1986 | 3 | 13.19 | 0.80 | 6.46 | | 1986 | 2 | 12.39 | 0.67 | 5.75 | | 1986 | 1 | 11.72 | 0.02 | 0.21 | | 1985 | 12 | 11.69 | 0.53 | 4.71 | | 1985 | 11 | 11.16 | 0.61 | 5.80 | | 1985 | 10 | 10.55 | 0.08 | 0.78 | | 1985 | 9 | 10.47 | -0.27 | -2.49 | | 1985 | 8 | 10.74 | -0.26 | -2.35 | | 1985 | 7 | 11 | 0.19 | 1.73 | | 1985 | 6 | 10.81 | 0.20 | 1.90 | | 1985 | 5 | 10.61 | 0.21 | 2.03 | | 1985 | 4 | 10.40 | 0.02 | 0.23 | | 1985 | 3 | 10.37 | -0.12 | -1.16 | | 1985 | 2 | 10.49 | 0.50 | 4.98 | | 1985 | 1 | 10 | 0.40 | 4.19 | | 1984 | 12 | 9.60 | -0.10 | -1 | | 1984 | 11 | 9.69 | 0.10 | 1.01 | | 1984 | 10 | 9.60 | -0.09 | -0.95 | | 1984 | 9 | 9.69 | 0.06 | 0.67 |

• Applied philosophy: The Shiller P/E and S&P 500 returns revisited

  exchange rates versus the euro. Of course, this outlook assumes that there is no sudden deterioration of economic momentum (either within the region or globally). [...] In CEE11 countries, I think growth will stay higher than in DM assuming decent real wage growth and no need for monetary tightening in response to higher inflation or currency weakness. In my view, fiscal policy is likely to be expansionary or neutral in most countries (apart from Romania and Slovakia, for example), although spending may be constrained somewhat by higher debt servicing costs. [...] may continue to outperform. At the same time, Bulgarian and Croatian bonds seem to have the least attractive valuations with yields and spreads versus Bunds below historical averages.

• Shiller PE Ratio

  # Shiller PE Ratio | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- --- --- --- --- --- | | Mean: | 17.38 || Median: | 16.09 || Min: | 4.78 (Dec 1920) || Max: | 44.19 (Dec 1999) | | | | | Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500. Price earnings ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio), Shiller PE Ratio, or PE 10 — FAQ. Data courtesy of Robert Shiller from his book, Irrational Exuberance. Price earnings ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio), Shiller PE Ratio, or PE 10 — FAQ. Data courtesy of Robert Shiller from his book, Irrational Exuberance. [...] Data courtesy of Robert Shiller from his book, Irrational Exuberance. ### See also