Peak iPhone

Topic

A theory that the iPhone's revenue and innovation have plateaued, as hardware upgrades have become incremental and consumers are holding onto their devices for longer. This is seen as a major headwind for Apple's growth.


First Mentioned

1/2/2026, 4:45:38 AM

Last Updated

1/3/2026, 3:50:27 AM

Research Retrieved

1/2/2026, 4:46:21 AM

Summary

"Peak iPhone" is a business concept and market theory suggesting that Apple's flagship product has reached a point of market saturation or terminal decline. The topic gained significant traction during Episode 169 of the All-In Podcast, where hosts Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks, and David Friedberg analyzed Apple's challenges under CEO Tim Cook, including the $2 billion EU fine, the failure of the Apple car (Project Titan), and legal conflicts with Epic Games. While sales data from 2015 to 2024 showed unit stagnation around 230-240 million units, contrasting reports from late 2025 indicate a potential resurgence, with the iPhone 17 series projected to reach a new record of 247 million shipments, challenging the "Peak" narrative.

Research Data
Extracted Attributes
  • Concept Definition

    The theory that the iPhone has reached maximum market penetration and faces inevitable decline.

  • Active User Base (2024)

    1.404 billion units

  • Projected 2025 Shipments

    247 million units (6.1% increase)

  • Key Indicators of Decline

    Project Titan failure, regulatory fines, decreased mentions by Warren Buffett.

  • Primary Discussion Source

    All-In Podcast Episode 169

  • Historical Sales Peak (Pre-2025)

    242 million units (2021)

Timeline
  • Steve Jobs introduces the first iPhone at Macworld 2007. (Source: Wikipedia: List of iPhone models)

    2007-01-09

  • iPhone sales reach a major peak of 231.2 million units for the year. (Source: Business of Apps: Apple Statistics)

    2015-12-31

  • iPhone sales experience their first year-over-year decline since the product's introduction. (Source: Wikipedia: iPhone)

    2016-03-31

  • iPhone sales reach a new record of 242 million units. (Source: Business of Apps: Apple Statistics)

    2021-12-31

  • Apple releases the entry-level iPhone 16e. (Source: Wikipedia: List of iPhone models)

    2025-02-28

  • Apple releases the iPhone 17, iPhone Air, iPhone 17 Pro, and iPhone 17 Pro Max. (Source: Wikipedia: List of iPhone models)

    2025-09-19

  • Projected record shipments of 247 million units driven by iPhone 17 demand in China. (Source: Investopedia: Apple iPhone 17 Sales)

    2025-12-31

List of iPhone models

The iPhone is a line of smartphones developed by Apple that use the iOS operating system. Introduced by then-CEO Steve Jobs on January 9, 2007, the iPhone revolutionized the mobile phone industry with its multi-touch interface and lack of physical keyboard. Over the years, Apple has released numerous models, each iteration bringing changes in hardware, software, performance and design. As of 2025, the most recent iPhone models are the iPhone 17, iPhone Air, iPhone 17 Pro, and iPhone 17 Pro Max, released on September 19, 2025, and the entry-level iPhone 16e, released on February 28, 2025.

Web Search Results
  • Apple Statistics (2025)

    iPhone sales in 2021 surpassed the 2015 peak, but that has since stagnated at around 230 million units. ### iPhone sales 2008 to 2024 (mm) | Year | Sales (mm) | | 2008 | 11.6 | | 2009 | 20.7 | | 2010 | 39.9 | | 2011 | 72.3 | | 2012 | 125 | | 2013 | 150.2 | | 2014 | 169.2 | | 2015 | 231.2 | | 2016 | 211.8 | | 2017 | 216.7 | | 2018 | 217.7 | | 2019 | 187.2 | | 2020 | 196.9 | | 2021 | 242 | | 2022 | 232.2 | | 2023 | 231.3 | | 2024 | 232.1 | [...] | Year | Units (mm) | | 2008 | 10 | | 2009 | 25 | | 2010 | 60 | | 2011 | 115 | | 2012 | 206 | | 2013 | 329 | | 2014 | 442 | | 2015 | 569 | | 2016 | 710 | | 2017 | 814 | | 2018 | 888 | | 2019 | 948 | | 2020 | 1042 | | 2021 | 1231 | | 2022 | 1334 | | 2023 | 1382 | | 2024 | 1404 | Sources: Above Avalon, Apple, BMO Capital Markets ## Active iPhone Units in US [...] | Americas | Europe | China | Japan | Rest of Asia Pacific | | 2015 | 70.3 | 33.9 | 71.2 | 15 | 12.2 | | 2016 | 62.9 | 34.6 | 58.3 | 14.6 | 14.8 | | 2017 | 69.3 | 36.8 | 51.6 | 15.3 | 13.3 | | 2018 | 74.8 | 38.2 | 44.8 | 14.9 | 14.2 | | 2019 | 65.7 | 36.3 | 31.4 | 14.8 | 12.8 | | 2020 | 73.3 | 37.3 | 34.9 | 14.7 | 14 | | 2021 | 84.3 | 56.1 | 42.9 | 17.8 | 17.3 | | 2022 | 99.8 | 56 | 43.6 | 15.2 | 17.2 | | 2023 | 98.1 | 56.8 | 43.7 | 14.6 | 17.8 | | 2024 | 100.4 | 58.8 | 38.5 | 14.5 | 19.9 |

  • iPhone battery and performance - Apple Support

    As your battery health degrades, so can its ability to deliver peak performance. The Battery Health screen includes a section for Peak Performance Capability where the following messages might appear. ### Performance is normal When the battery condition can support normal peak performance and doesn't have the performance management features applied, you'll see this message: Your battery is currently supporting normal peak performance. ### Performance management applied [...] You're more likely to experience unexpected shutdowns when your battery has a low state of charge, a higher chemical age, or when you're in colder temperatures. In extreme cases, shutdowns can occur more frequently, making the device unreliable or unusable. For iPhone 6, iPhone 6 Plus, iPhone 6s, iPhone 6s Plus, iPhone SE (1st generation), iPhone 7, and iPhone 7 Plus, iOS dynamically manages performance peaks to prevent the device from unexpectedly shutting down, so you can still use your [...] The Battery Health screen includes information on maximum battery capacity and peak performance capability. Maximum battery capacity measures the device battery capacity relative to when it was new. A battery will have lower capacity as the battery chemically ages, which might result in fewer hours of usage between charges. Depending upon the length of time between when the iPhone was made and when it's activated, your battery capacity might show as slightly less than 100 percent.

  • Phone Cases | Peak Design Official Site

    Image 4 New Image 5 New Everyday Case for iPhone 17 17, Air, Pro, Pro Max $49.95 - $59.95 IN 5 COLORSImage 6 New Image 7 New GNAR Case for iPhone 17 Pro, Pro Max $59.95 IN 3 COLORSImage 8 Image 9 Image 10 Image 11 Everyday Case for iPhone 16 16, Pro, Pro Max, Plus $49.95 IN 6 COLORSImage 12 Image 13 Image 14 Image 15 GNAR Case for iPhone 16 Pro, Pro Max $49.95 IN 1 COLORImage 16 Image 17 Image 18 Image 19 Everyday Case for iPhone 15 15, Pro, Pro Max, Plus $34.95 IN 5 COLORSImage 20 Image 21 [...] Image 22 Image 23 Everyday Case for iPhone 14 14, Pro, Pro Max, Plus $29.95 IN 2 COLORSImage 24 Image 25 Out of Stock Image 26 Image 27 Out of Stock Nomad x PD Rugged Case for iPhone 14 Pro, Pro Max $59.95 IN 1 COLORImage 28 Image 29 Image 30 Image 31 Everyday Case for iPhone 13 13, Pro, Pro Max, Mini $29.95 IN 1 COLORImage 32 Image 33 Image 34 Image 35 Everyday Case for iPhone 12 12, Pro, Pro Max, Mini $29.95 IN 1 COLOR [...] for statistical analysis, to personalize your experience, and for advertising and social media purposes, including to track your use of our site, offer you advertisements that target your particular interests, improve our services, assist you more efficiently when browsing on our website and analyze the performance of our advertising campaigns. You have the right to accept or adjust your Cookies. More information Allow All ### Manage Consent Preferences #### Targeting Cookies

  • iPhone

    seasonal, peaking in the holiday season (Apple's Q1). With the release of the iPhone 13 in Q1 FY2022, Apple temporarily topped Samsung, with 84.9 million units shipped compared to Samsung's 68.9 million. In most quarters, Apple is the second-largest smartphone vendor by units. Apple sold 223 million iPhones in its financial year 2023 ending September 24. [...] The iPhone is a line of smartphones developed and marketed by Apple that run iOS, the company's own mobile operating system. The first-generation iPhone "IPhone (1st generation)") was announced by then–Apple CEO and co-founder Steve Jobs on January 9, 2007, at Macworld 2007, and launched later that year. Since then, Apple has annually released new iPhone models and iOS versions; the latest models being the iPhone 17, the higher-end iPhone 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max, and the thinner iPhone Air. As of [...] iPhone sales grew continuously year-over-year since its introduction until Q2 FY2016. The iPhone briefly surpassed BlackBerry in Q4 FY2008, and permanently overtook it starting in Q3 FY2010. By 2011, Apple sold 100 million iPhones worldwide, and became the largest mobile phone vendor in the world by revenue, surpassing long-time leader Nokia. Q1 FY2012 marked Apple's best quarterly earnings in its history, with 53% of the company's revenues coming from iPhone sales. Phone sales are strongly

  • Apple iPhone 17 Sales Are Booming. Its Stock Is Hitting ...

    Nabila Popal, senior research director with the study, said that it’s anticipated that Apple will ship more than 247 million iPhones in 2025, a 6.1% jump and an all-time high, “thanks to the phenomenal success of its latest iPhone 17 series.” She pointed to “massive demand” in China that has “significantly accelerated Apple’s performance." ### Why This Is Significant [...] Global smartphone shipments are expected to be 1.5% higher in 2025, up from the previous prediction of a 1% gain, thanks to demand for Apple's iPhone 17, according to tech information provider International Data Corporation. IDC said Apple will post a record number of shipments this year because of the success of the iPhone 17, led by demand in China. Apple shares hit a new all-time high Wednesday morning. [...] A new report predicts worldwide smartphone shipments for 2025 will be up 1.5% from 2024, driven by a record-setting performance by Apple (AAPL).1 The Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker from tech information provider International Data Corporation raised its previous outlook of a 1% gain, primarily on the expected soaring demand for Apple’s new iPhone 17 this holiday season.