Arms Race in AI

Extracted Attributes

• Goal

  Gain strategic or tactical advantage, achieve global dominance through Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) or superintelligence.

• Definition

  An economic and military competition between two or more states to develop and deploy advanced AI technologies and lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS).

• Driving Factors

  Increasing geopolitical and military tensions, national security interests, economic benefits, industrial policy (direct investment, subsidies, export controls).

• Potential Dangers

  Loss of control of AI systems, existential risk, increased international tensions, misuse of technology.

• Primary Competitors

  United States, China

• Metaphorical Context

  AI Cold War

• Criticism of Metaphor

  Often a tool of political rhetoric, simplifies complex issues, unhelpful as a metric or policy guide, AI is a software tool not easily made lethal.

• Nature of Competition

  Primarily a business competition involving dozens of private actors, but with significant state patronage and national interest framing.

• Other Competing Entities

  European Union nations

• Key Technologies Involved

  Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS), Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), Superintelligence, Foundational Models, AI for surveillance, decision-making systems, cyber operations.

Timeline

• Many analysts noted the emergence and intensification of the AI arms race between superpowers, driven by increasing geopolitical and military tensions. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2010s (mid-)

• The notion of an AI arms race was used as an argument against a package of antitrust reforms targeting the tech industry. (Source: web_search_results)

  2022-XX-XX

• A United States Air Force official reportedly misstated that a simulated AI drone killed a human character during a computer test. (Source: web_search_results)

  2023-XX-XX

• The 'AI arms race 2.0' has taken on a new character, incorporating direct investment, subsidies, and export controls as industrial policy measures. (Source: web_search_results)

  Recent past (approx. 2022-2024)

Artificial intelligence arms race

A military artificial intelligence arms race is an economic and military competition between two or more states to develop and deploy advanced AI technologies and lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS). The goal is to gain a strategic or tactical advantage over rivals, similar to previous arms races involving nuclear or conventional military technologies. Since the mid-2010s, many analysts have noted the emergence of such an arms race between superpowers for better AI technology and military AI, driven by increasing geopolitical and military tensions. An AI arms race is sometimes placed in the context of an AI Cold War between the United States and China. Several influential figures and publications have emphasized that whoever develops artificial general intelligence (AGI) first could dominate global affairs in the 21st century. Russian President Vladimir Putin famously stated that the leader in AI will "rule the world." Experts and analysts—from researchers like Leopold Aschenbrenner to institutions like Lawfare and Foreign Policy—warn that the AGI race between major powers like the U.S. and China could reshape geopolitical power. This includes AI for surveillance, autonomous weapons, decision-making systems, cyber operations, and more.

Web Search Results

• Artificial intelligence arms race - Wikipedia

  A military artificial intelligence arms race is an economic and military competition between two or more states to develop and deploy advanced AI technologies and lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS). The goal is to gain a strategic or tactical advantage over rivals, similar to previous arms races involving nuclear or conventional military technologies. Since the mid-2010s, many analysts have noted the emergence of such an arms race between superpowers for better AI technology and military [...] An AI arms race is sometimes placed in the context of an AI Cold War between the United States and China. Several influential figures and publications have emphasized that whoever develops artificial general intelligence (AGI) first could dominate global affairs in the 21st century. Russian President Vladimir Putin famously stated that the leader in AI will "rule the world." Experts and analysts—from researchers like Leopold Aschenbrenner to institutions like Lawfare and Foreign Policy—warn [...] Another potential danger of an AI arms race is the possibility of losing control of the AI systems; the risk is compounded in the case of a race to artificial general intelligence, which may present an existential risk. In 2023, a United States Air Force official reportedly said that during a computer test, a simulated AI drone killed the human character operating it. The USAF later said the official had misspoken and that it never conducted such simulations.

• 1.3: AI Arms Race 2.0: From Deregulation to Industrial Policy

  around two poles: the US and China. Since the mid 2010s, the notion of a US-China AI arms race has been primarily deployed by industry-motivated actors to push back against regulatory friction. A frequent motif in policy discussions at moments where the industry has sought to stem the tide of regulation, the notion of an arms race was one of the key arguments made against the introduction of a federal data protection law, a package of antitrust reforms targeting the tech industry in 2022, and [...] In the past two years, this so-called race has taken on a new character (let’s call it the “AI arms race 2.0”), taking shape as a slate of measures that go far beyond deregulation to incorporate direct investment, subsidies, and export controls in order to boost the interests of dominant AI firms under the argument that their advancement is in the national interest (what we refer to as AI industrial policy3Amba Kak and Sarah M. West, “A Modern Industrial Strategy for AI?: Interrogating the US [...] The fusing of economic and national security goalposts under the banner of the US-China AI arms race is a critical asset for US AI firms: It affords them patronage not just from their own government, but potentially from the many other nation-states vying for a fighting chance at national competitiveness in this market; it insulates them from regulatory friction by framing any calls for accountability as not just anti-innovation but harming national interests; and—as we explore in Chapter 1.2:

• AI and Arms Races - CEPA

  Declarations that there is an “arms race” are usually tools of political rhetoric, used to press for more spending, to criticize incumbents, or to appeal for measures to reduce perceived risks. Using the arms race metaphor for AI raises several questions. If this is a race, how do we measure who is ahead? What are the right metrics to gauge national AI success? How does better AI translate into tangible national power? Precedents from the last century are unpromising as a source of answers to [...] The concept of an AI arms race is appealing as it simplifies complex issues and provides a handy rhetorical device, but it is unhelpful both as a metric and as a guide for policy. Adoption of AI promises economic benefits, but not necessarily military strength or global influence. Discussions on the effect of AI often start with the technology and leap to the conclusion of increased power without considering the many intermediate steps and difficulties in getting from software to outcomes. [...] Arms races are an effort to preserve stability by ensuring balance in military capabilities among opponents. Past arms races involved building new weapons that were believed to confer military superiority. One side begins to build, and the others respond with matching efforts. But AI is not a weapon; it is a software tool and not easily made lethal. Creating AI tools is largely a business competition, not two states stockpiling weapons. AI competition involves dozens of private actors guided by

• The International Race for AI Dominance

  The race to the top of artificial intelligence (AI) is a global competition that most major economies are investing in. Countries like the United States, China, and the European Union (EU) nations are competing to dominate AI development, pouring billions into research, infrastructure, and regulatory frameworks. While AI investments present economic, technological, and geopolitical advantages, they also come with significant risks that must be carefully considered.

• Navigating the Global AI Race: Nations Compete

  The geopolitical landscape is also being reshaped by the AI race. Control over AI technology could lead to new forms of power and influence, potentially leading to a new Cold War-like scenario. Military applications of AI, such as autonomous weapons, raise concerns about an arms race and the potential for misuse. Collaboration vs. Competition [...] Whether the race leads to a more prosperous and equitable future or to increased tensions and a digital arms race, the outcome will largely depend on how the international community navigates these waters. Cooperation on ethical guidelines and the responsible use of AI is essential to ensure that this powerful technology serves humanity rather than becoming a tool for dominance. As we move forward, it’s crucial for nations to balance their pursuit of innovation with the need to create a global [...] The AI race is still in its early stages, and the eventual winner remains uncertain. What is clear is that the competition will continue to intensify, with nations vying for technological and economic supremacy. As AI becomes more integrated into every aspect of society, it will be essential for countries to balance innovation with ethical considerations, data security, and the protection of individual rights.