Russia/Ukraine Endgame

Extracted Attributes

• Definition

  Diplomatic and strategic conclusion of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine

• Broader Contexts

  AI market correction, 2028 US presidential election

• Scenarios for Outcome

  Russia wins, Ukraine wins, Deal, No Deal, Long war, Frozen conflict

• Putin's Maximalist Demands

  No NATO membership for Ukraine, Ukraine's declared neutrality, No nuclear weapons in Ukraine

• Key Proponent of Peace Deal

  Donald Trump

• Anticipated Year for Negotiation

  2025

• Proposed Peace Deal (Donald Trump)

  Removal of NATO membership for Ukraine, Acknowledging territorial concessions

Timeline

• The American crime drama thriller television series 'The Endgame' premiered on NBC. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2022-02-21

• The American crime drama thriller television series 'The Endgame' concluded its run. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2022-05-02

• The American crime drama thriller television series 'The Endgame' was canceled after one season. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2022-05

• Anticipated year for negotiation regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with the endgame considered to be here. (Source: Web Search)

  2025

• Potential period for American support to Ukraine to be drawn down or cut off in a 'Russia wins' scenario. (Source: Web Search)

  2025-early

The Endgame

The Endgame is an American crime drama thriller television series that premiered on NBC on February 21, until May 2, 2022. The series was created by Nicholas Wootton and Jake Coburn. In May 2022, the series was canceled after one season.

Web Search Results

• [PDF] The Russia-Ukraine Endgame and the Future of Europe

  States abandons Ukraine—or is perceived as switching sides—and Europe fails to step up, Russia will hold firm to its maximalist demands and seek Ukraine’s total capitulation, turning the country into a vassal state of Moscow. In this scenario, Russia will have effectively won the war, divided the West, and irrevocably upended the post-World War II world order. Putin’s maximalist demands: 6 nos and 6 yeses 1. No: NATO membership and Ukraine’s declared neutrality 2. No: Nuclear weapons in Ukraine [...] JPMorganChase Center for Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine Endgame and the Future of Europe 1 The Russia-Ukraine Endgame and the Future of Europe Odds: 15% Best case – “South Korea” President Zelenskyy will get neither NATO membership nor the full restoration of Ukraine’s territory. However, if he can secure an in-country European tripwire force backstopped by an American security promise on assistance and intelligence support, then the 80 percent of Ukraine still under Kyiv’s control will be set on a [...] but stops short of a comprehensive peace agreement. Putin’s losses are also far from sustainable. At its current rate of gain, Russia will control all of Ukraine in about…118 years. So Putin will aim to cut a deal that is favorable to his overall goal to eventually control Kyiv. 2025 was always going to be the year of negotiation, and the endgame is here. But will it last? The durability of any settlement will depend on: (1) how satisfied President Putin is with Ukrainian and Western

• Ending the Russo-Ukrainian war: scenarios and consequences

  Scenario 1, “Russia wins”: American support is drawn down or cut off in early 2025. Ukraine struggles to defend itself, let alone push the Russians back. Russia claims victory. Zelenskyy and his government fall. Scenario 2, “Ukraine wins”: Ukraine has pushed Russia back from all of its internationally recognized territory. The war is over. Scenario 3, “Deal”: Forced by either the international community or by circumstance, Russia and Ukraine sign a ceasefire and/or a peace deal. [...] So, ideally for Russia, what they would want is to cut Ukraine off of the Black Sea, take Odessa, which would cripple Ukraine economically and also, provide access to Transnistria. However, the plan is stalling, and it is stalling because Ukraine is having surprising naval success for the country that has no navy. It has managed to launch a pretty effective and successful asymmetric operation against a much more powerful rival, an enemy, and a lot of Military assis – analysts are now looking at [...] Scenario 4, “No Deal”: Russia and Ukraine keep on fighting with the same goals. Neither manages a decisive blow but neither shows any interest in a deal.

• Four scenarios for the end of the war in Ukraine | Chatham House

  After two and a half years of Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine, there are now four main possible scenarios fo r its outcome: ‘Long war’ – An attritional conflict that tests each side’s limits. ‘Frozen conflict’ – An armistice that would stabilize the front li ne where it is. ‘Victory for Ukraine’ – A Western policy shift on support that allows Ukraine to force Russia back to at least the demarcation line of 23 February 2022. [...] There are four possible outcomes for Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine: ‘long war’, ‘frozen conflict’, ‘victory for Ukraine’ and ‘defeat for Ukraine’. Regardless of which scenario emerges, the far-reaching and traumatic sociological, economic and political impacts of the war will be inescapable.

• Tell Me How It Ends: Analogies and Scenarios for the Ukraine war

  The subjugation of Ukraine would put the country in a situation more or less akin to that of neighboring Belarus, which was _de facto_ placed under the yoke of Moscow after Putin saved the Lukashenko regime in 2020-2021. This could only occur if Russia is able to defeat Ukrainian forces and install a puppet regime in Kyiv. There is no doubt that this would be an unstable outcome, given the many Ukrainian citizens maintaining the current level of resistance. [...] Meanwhile, however, Russian forces will continue to obtain the maximum military results on the ground, with no clear objective other than crushing Ukrainian armed forces and State institutions with increasing kinetic force. As Lenin reportedly said, "_You probe with bayonets: if you find mush, you push. If you find steel, you withdraw_". Unfortunately, a final analogy must be made: the terrible destruction of Grozny in 1999 - a particularly troubling one as Chechen forces arrive in Ukraine to

• How the war in Ukraine changed Russia's global standing | Brookings

  assistance that the United States has provided Ukraine, and Trump told him that Russia holds all the cards in this war while Ukraine holds none. This reversal of fortune in favor of Russia is stunning. Putin welcomes the opportunity to meet with Trump. It will bestow on him the legitimacy as a leader of a great power that he desires. He may be suspicious of the United States, but he nevertheless craves its validation. He has ceased to criticize the United States and has praised Trump. Peskov, [...] Trump’s return to power has upended the trans-Atlantic alliance’s unity on Ukraine and Russia and may represent the ultimate success of Putin’s game plan. The Trump administration has revived U.S.-Russian contacts and reengaged the Kremlin in order to reach a settlement in Ukraine. Trump announced that he had had a long, productive call with Putin on February 12 and claimed that Putin also wanted to end the war. On February 18, U.S. and Russian negotiators met in Riyadh to talk about [...] ends. Once the war ends, Europe will likely become the main Western backer of Ukraine as U.S. support recedes, providing that Putin does not succeed in blocking a European military presence in Ukraine.