Japan's bond market
A major foreign holder of US debt. A recent, sharp increase in Japanese government bond yields is a warning sign of a potential global credit selloff, which could force Japan to sell its US Treasury holdings, further driving up US interest rates.
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7/19/2025, 10:27:27 PM
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7/26/2025, 2:28:40 AM
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7/19/2025, 10:56:16 PM
Summary
Japan's bond market is notable for its exceptionally high national debt, which reached 1,324 trillion yen by the end of March 2025, representing 234.9% of its GDP, making it one of the highest ratios among developed nations. A significant portion of this debt, 88.1% of the 1,212 trillion yen government debt balance at the end of December 2024, is held domestically, with the Bank of Japan being the largest single holder at 46.3%. Following the 1991 asset price bubble collapse and subsequent 'Lost Decades' of economic stagnation, the Bank of Japan initiated quantitative easing in the early 2000s to stimulate growth. By 2013, Japan's public debt had surpassed one quadrillion yen, approximately double its annual GDP, establishing it as the nation with the largest debt ratio globally. Instability in Japan's bond market, driven by factors like rising government spending, election angst, and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy adjustments, contributes to global financial risk, with the 10-year JGB yield recently reaching 1.57%, well above its 25-year average.
Referenced in 1 Document
Research Data
Extracted Attributes
National Debt (March 2025)
1,324 trillion yen
10-year JGB Yield (May 2006)
1.99%
Size of Japanese Bond Market
$8 trillion
25-year Average 10-year JGB Yield
0.85%
Bank of Japan Target Rate (Current)
0.50%
Bank of Japan Assets: Total (Current)
733,603.50 billion JPY
National Debt as % of GDP (March 2025)
234.9%
Government Debt Balance (December 2024)
1,212 trillion yen
Domestic Holding of Government Debt (December 2024)
88.1%
10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) Yield (recent)
1.57%
Bank of Japan's Holding of Government Debt (December 2024)
46.3%
Domestic Banks' Holding of Government Debt (December 2024)
14.5%
Ratio of Interest Payments to Revenue (Current Financial Year)
12.2%
Ratio of Interest Payments to Revenue (Previous Financial Year)
9.9%
Domestic Insurance Companies' Holding of Government Debt (December 2024)
15.6%
Timeline
- Japan's asset price bubble collapses, leading to a prolonged period of economic stagnation known as the 'Lost Decades'. (Source: Wikipedia)
1991-XX-XX
- The Bank of Japan begins implementing quantitative easing policies to encourage economic growth. (Source: Wikipedia)
2000-XX-XX
- Japanese public debt exceeds one quadrillion yen (approximately US$10.46 trillion), becoming about twice the country's annual GDP and the largest debt ratio of any nation. (Source: Wikipedia)
2013-XX-XX
- The total government debt balance stands at 1,212 trillion yen, with 88.1% held domestically. (Source: Wikipedia)
2024-12-31
- The general gross debt of the Japanese Government reaches 1,324 trillion yen, or 234.9% of the country's GDP. (Source: Wikipedia)
2025-03-31
- A sell-off in 'super-long' JGB yields occurs due to concerns about fiscal promises by opposition parties and election angst. (Source: Web Search)
2025-05-XX
- Tokyo's inflation eases to 3.1% year on year, slower than 3.6% in May. (Source: Web Search)
2025-06-XX
- The Bank of Japan states it will slow the pace of its government bond purchase reductions starting April next year and keeps its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.5%. (Source: Web Search)
2025-06-XX
- Reuters reports that investors in Japanese government bonds are bracing for a potential power shift in upper house elections, with long-dated yields soaring. (Source: Web Search)
2025-07-14
- The Bank of Japan plans to trim its monthly Japanese government bond purchases by roughly 400 billion yen each quarter to about 3 trillion yen. (Source: Web Search)
2026-03-31
Wikipedia
View on WikipediaNational debt of Japan
The national debt of Japan is the total quantity of money borrowed by the Government of Japan through the issuance of government bonds by the Ministry of Finance and other government agencies. At the end of March 2025, the general gross debt of the Japanese Government was 1,324 trillion yen, or 234.9% of the country's gross domestic product, and is one of the highest among developed nations. At the end of December 2024, of the total government debt balance of 1,212 trillion yen, 88.1 per cent was held domestically. The largest holders were the Bank of Japan (46.3 per cent), domestic insurance companies (15.6 per cent), domestic banks (14.5 per cent). Japan's asset price bubble collapse in 1991 led to a prolonged period of economic stagnation described as the 'Lost Decades', with GDP falling significantly in real terms through the 1990s. In response, the Bank of Japan set out in the early 2000s to encourage economic growth through the non-traditional policy of quantitative easing. By 2013, Japanese public debt exceeded one quadrillion yen (approximately US$10.46 trillion at the time), which was about twice the country's annual gross domestic product at that time, and already the largest debt ratio of any nation.
Web Search Results
- Market Minute: Japanese bond holdings and global yields
At a time of scarce capital to finance private investment, this possibility risks the return of government spending crowding out private borrowing not only in Japan but also in the United States and Europe. Get Joe Brusuelas’s Market Minute economic commentary every morning. Subscribe now. The $8 trillion Japanese bond market has been an anchor of lower global rates over the past few decades as the Bank of Japan’s asset purchase program to fight deflation kept rates low. [...] But now, with government spending rising around the world, global investors have been pushing rates higher. The Japanese 10-year bond, or the Japanese government bond, stands at 1.57%, well above the 25-year average of 0.85% and the 1.99% posted in May 2006. []( [...] In addition, as the Bank of Japan continues its quantitative tightening program, the question of who purchases JGB’s amid a possible increase in fiscal outlays is part of a larger narrative of expansionary fiscal policy across the global economy. Japan’s ratio of interest payments to revenue will increase to 12.2% from 9.9% this financial year, according to Bloomberg data. This implies that additional taxes will be needed to avoid a spike in interest rates.
- Japan bond market blows out as election angst grips investors
"Japan is going down a similar path as the United Kingdom did a couple of years ago. If no fiscal restraint, then the bond market will start to put pressure on the economy." Japan's debt burden is the highest in the developed world at about 250% of GDP. Concerns about promises of fiscal largesse by opposition parties helped fuel a sell-off in so-called super-long JGB yields in late May. [...] Published Time: 2025-07-14T22:07:02.471Z Japan bond market blows out as election angst grips investors | Reuters =============== Skip to main content Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionals Learn more about Refinitiv - Investors in Japanese government bonds are bracing for a potential power shift in upper house elections this weekend that could strain the country's already frail finances, with long-dated yields soaring to all-time highs as the vote nears. [...] On Tuesday, Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said he was monitoring the market situation closely and would continue to work on appropriate debt management to maintain investor confidence. Investors have also hugged the sidelines because of the Bank of Japan's reticence to raise interest rates further against an uncertain global economic backdrop.
- Japanese Rates & Bonds - Bloomberg
| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GTJPY2Y:GOV JGB 2 Year Yield | 0.80 | 100.09 | 0.74% | +1 | +15 | +38 | 11:28 PM | | GTJPY5Y:GOV JGB 5 Year Yield | 1.00 | 99.88 | 1.02% | +1 | +21 | +43 | 11:28 PM | | GTJPY10Y:GOV JGB 10 Year Yield | 1.40 | 99.28 | 1.48% | +0 | +22 | +46 | 11:28 PM | | GTJPY20Y:GOV JGB 20 Year Yield | 2.40 | 100.45 | 2.36% | -3 | +16 | +52 | 11:28 PM | | GTJPY30Y:GOV JGB 30 Year Yield | 2.40 | 92.21 | 2.88% | -4 | +13 | +69 | 11:28 PM | [...] Japanese Rates & Bonds - Bloomberg =============== Skip to content Skip to content Bloomberg the Company & Its Products The Company & its ProductsBloomberg Terminal Demo RequestBloomberg Anywhere Remote Login Bloomberg Anywhere LoginBloomberg Customer Support Customer Support ### Bloomberg [...] Bank of Japan Rates ------------------- | Rate | Current | 1 Year Prior | | --- | --- | --- | | BOJDTR:IND Target Rate | 0.50 | 0.10 | | BJACTOTL:IND Bank of Japan Assets: Total (Billions of JPY) | 733,603.50 | 761,085.10 | 6/3/2025 Trump Team Signals It Wants to Keep Control of Fannie, Freddie to Boost Budget 6/3/2025 Trump’s ‘Revenge’ Tax Could See Dollar Dive 5%, Allianz CIO Says 6/2/2025 Stocks Gain on US Jobs Surprise as Treasuries Fall: Markets Wrap 6/2/2025
- Japan bond yields surge as fiscal fears mount ahead of election
"This is why the bond vigilantes are out. And they're saying: we need more yield to invest in the bond market. So there's a shorting [going on] in the JGB market," he told CNBC. Aside from the upcoming election, there are underlying factors at play that could bring forward the Bank of Japan's next rate hike. While still at elevated levels, Tokyo's inflation eased to 3.1% year on year in June, slower than the 3.6% in May. [...] "This could prompt the BOJ to revise its inflation forecast upward, potentially accelerating the timeline for its next rate hike," said Carlos Casanova, senior economist for Asia at Union Bancaire Privée. On top of that, supply-demand imbalances in the Japanese bond markets could become more pronounced, especially as life insurers have less capacity to absorb additional supply, said Masahiko Loo, senior fixed income strategist at State Street Investment Management. [...] In June, the Bank of Japan said it would slow the pace of its government bond purchase reductions starting April next year, and kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.5% as economic risks mount. The BOJ reiterated plans to trim its monthly Japanese government bond purchases by roughly 400 billion yen ($2.76 billion) each quarter to about 3 trillion yen till March 2026, in line with guidance set last year. CNBC logo #### News Tips Got a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you.
- Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - Quote - Trading Economics
| | Actual | Chg | %Chg | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US500 | 6296.79 | 1 | -0.01% | | | US30 | 44342 | 142 | -0.32% | | | US100 | 23065 | 16 | -0.07% | | | JP225 | 39819 | 82 | -0.21% | | | GB100 | 8992 | 19 | 0.22% | | | DE40 | 24290 | 81 | -0.33% | | | FR40 | 7823 | 1 | 0.01% | | | IT40 | 40312 | 183 | 0.46% | | | ES35 | 13989 | 6 | -0.04% | | | ASX200 | 8757 | 118 | 1.37% | | | SHANGHAI | 3534 | 18 | 0.50% | | | SENSEX | 81758 | 502 | -0.61% | | [...] | | Actual | Chg | %Chg | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Crude Oil | 67.300 | 0.24 | -0.36% | | Brent | 69.210 | 0.31 | -0.45% | | Natural gas | 3.5678 | 0.03 | 0.73% | | Gasoline | 2.1466 | 0.02 | -1.01% | | Heating Oil | 2.4510 | 0.01 | -0.55% | | Gold | 3349.44 | 10.70 | 0.32% | | Silver | 38.158 | 0.01 | 0.02% | | Copper | 5.5510 | 0.08 | 1.42% | | Soybeans | 1027.25 | 5.75 | 0.56% | | Wheat | 547.00 | 13.50 | 2.53% | | Coal | 110.40 | 0.10 | -0.09% | | Steel | 3136.00 | 26.00 | 0.84% | [...] | Bonds | Yield | | Day | Month | Year | Date | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Japan 10Y | 1.53 | | -0.026% | 0.122% | 0.486% | Jul/18 | | Japan 1M | 0.46 | | 0.005% | 0.011% | 0.446% | Jul/18 | | Japan 3M | 0.41 | | 0.027% | -0.018% | 0.384% | Jul/18 | | Japan 6M | 0.43 | | 0% | -0.030% | 0.398% | Jul/18 | | Japan 52W | 0.60 | | -0.002% | 0.066% | 0.472% | Jul/18 | | Japan 2Y | 0.77 | | -0.008% | 0.053% | 0.424% | Jul/18 |