Trump Win Pricing-in

Extracted Attributes

• Concept Type

  Market phenomenon

• Election Context

  2024 US Presidential Election

• Economic Backdrop

  Ballooning US National Debt, Global Leverage Problem, China's pivot from US treasuries to Gold

• Primary Proponent

  Chamath Palihapitiya

• Associated Podcast

  All-In Podcast

• Underlying Market Fear

  Inflation

• Post-Win Market Reaction

  US stock markets (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq) hit record levels; Bitcoin surged; US risk assets and US dollar outperformed; government bond yields stabilized; fixed income markets lost ground; 10-year US Treasury yields rose

• Supporting Financial Figures

  Paul Tudor Jones, Stan Druckenmiller

• Benefiting Sectors (post-win)

  Banking, Crypto, Technology, Defense, Fossil Fuel industries, Small company stocks, Energy, Financial sectors

• Expected Policy Impacts (post-win)

  Lower taxes, looser regulation for companies, potential corporate profit boost, tariffs leading to higher costs/lower profits for some companies, potential for higher inflation

• Pre-Win Market Indicators (discussed)

  S&P 500 rising, Gold rising, Bitcoin rising, US Treasury yields spiking

Timeline

• Chamath Palihapitiya presents his "Trump Win Pricing-in" thesis on the All-In Podcast, suggesting global markets are repositioning for a Donald Trump victory in the 2024 US Presidential Election, amidst fears of inflation and spiking US Treasury yields. (Source: Related Documents)

  2024

• Following Donald Trump's victory in the US Presidential Election, US stock markets (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq) hit record levels, Bitcoin surged, and US risk assets and the US dollar outperformed, while government bond yields stabilized, reflecting the market's reaction to the anticipated outcome. (Source: Web Search Results)

  2024-11

Congestion pricing in New York City

Congestion pricing in New York City, also known as the Central Business District Tolling Program or CBDTP, began on January 5, 2025. It applies to most motor vehicular traffic using the central business district area of Manhattan south of 61st Street, known as the Congestion Relief Zone, in an effort to encourage commuters to use public transportation instead. This Pigovian tax, intended to cut down on traffic congestion and pollution, was first proposed in 2007 and included in the 2019 New York State government budget by the New York State Legislature. Tolls are collected electronically and vary depending on the time of day, type of vehicle, and whether a vehicle has an E-ZPass toll transponder. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) estimates $15 billion in available capital will be generated by bonding revenues from the tolls, which will be available to fund repairs and improvements to the subway, bus, and commuter rail systems. As of 2024, New York City led the world in urban automobile traffic congestion, despite having a 24/7 rapid transit system. Since the early 20th century, several proposals have been floated for traffic congestion fees or limits for vehicles traveling into or within the Manhattan central business district. A recurring proposal was adding tolls to all crossings of the East River, which separates the borough of Manhattan from the boroughs of Brooklyn and Queens. In response to the 2017 New York City transit crisis of the MTA, Governor Andrew Cuomo proposed taking advantage of open road tolling technology and providing a revenue stream for the agency. In 2019, following negotiations, Cuomo and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio agreed to implement congestion pricing to stem the ongoing transit crisis. Federal officials gave final approval to the plan in June 2023, but due to various delays, the rollout was postponed several times. Governor Kathy Hochul indefinitely postponed the plan in June 2024, just before it was planned to go into effect; as a result, the MTA had to postpone capital projects. In November 2024, Hochul revived the congestion toll proposal at a lower price point. Shortly after the toll was implemented, the administration of President Donald Trump revoked federal approval, though tolls remain in effect pending a judicial ruling. The implementation of congestion pricing led to immediate decreases in private vehicle traffic, and a decrease in transit times for both public and private vehicles. Pedestrian traffic increased and pedestrian fatalities decreased.

Web Search Results

• How Trump's win may affect the global economy

  The promise of lower taxes and looser regulation for companies could mean businesses can boost their profits, and that possibility has been reflected since Tuesday in the share prices of many major American businesses. A firm with the prospect of higher future profits attracts investors who buy its shares, and that in turn pushes up the price of that stock. This trend could continue for those operating in the banking, crypto, technology, defense and fossil fuel industries. [...] Companies that end up facing higher costs due to tariffs could earn lower profits, which in turn might mean lower share prices — unless they raise their consumer prices. But higher prices could lead to higher inflation. ### Trade, inflation and incomes [...] "Those companies are suffering in terms of their share prices," says Stephen Woolcock, an expert in international trade policy at the London School of Economics. "This is quite a complex network of supply chains, and increased tariffs by the U.S. — which would probably lead to retaliation by other major trading powers — would disrupt those existing supply chains, which leads to uncertainty, increased costs, and therefore has a knock-on effect on companies."

• What does Trump's election win mean for the global economy?

  The initial market reaction to his win has been relatively orderly, with US risk assets and the US dollar out-performing, and government bond yields stabilising following a large pre-election rise. Looking forward, a key risk to the outlook is a potential back-up in US government bond yields (with ripple effects through global markets) if the new Trump administration tries to push through tax cuts without a credible plan to pay for them. [...] Markets have given the administration-in-waiting the benefit of the doubt, but this could change. The market reaction to Trump’s win implies most investors assume many of Trump’s tax cut promises during his campaign will not be fulfilled and fiscal prudence will prevail. Our base case is key economic officials in the Trump administration recognise the risks of a potential bond market revolt and will therefore be careful to present credible fiscal plans. But Trump is unpredictable and has [...] ultimately slower demand growth as real incomes are hit, and base effects after the initial one-off price increases, causes inflation to come back down (with prices at a permanently higher level).

• Why Donald Trump's election win fuelled a stock market surge

  US stock markets the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq also hit record levels, with investors expecting to price in Trump’s promises of tax cuts and tariffs, fuelling the dollar and sparking a sell-off in US government bonds. Promises of corporate tax cuts and deregulation tend to encourage financial innovation, making markets more active. [...] When Trump last became president in 2017, prices for consumer goods had risen almost 5% over the previous four years. By contrast, since January 2021 those same prices are up by around 20%. This is a dramatically different economic backdrop in which inflation has been a global phenomenon since the onset of the COVID pandemic in 2020. [...] Following Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, Bitcoin was one of the assets that surged in value. This was widely felt to be a response to Trump’s promise to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve – essentially holding a large stock of the cryptocurrency as a security. On November 13, the week after Trump’s win, Bitcoin broke through the US$90,000 (£71,340) price threshold for the first time, and the value of the global crypto market topped US$3 trillion for the first time in

• How Trump's election is forecast to affect US stocks | Goldman Sachs

  S&P 500 price and earnings S&P 500 price and earnings The S&P 500 rallied to a record high the day after the presidential vote as uncertainty about the outcome faded. [...] The resolution of political uncertainty is a key, near-term driver for stocks and tends to drive strong year-end returns following a presidential election, Kostin writes. The S&P 500 index has historically generated a median return of 4% between Election Day in November and calendar year-end. Combined with the recent resilience in economic growth data and the expectation for more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the near-term outlook for US equities is “healthy,” he writes. [...] US stocks surged in part because many clients had reduced the amount of risk in their portfolio amid uncertainty about the results of the election, Garrett says on an episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges. Investors have since re-engaged some of the trades that were successful after the 2016 presidential race, such as buying financials, small caps, technology, and energy stocks, he says.

• How Presidential Elections Affect the Stock Market | U.S. Bank

  Stocks continued what has been a second consecutive year of strong gains. In apparent response to the election outcome, small company stocks and Energy and Financial sectors performed particularly well. This is what Rob Haworth, senior investment strategy director for U.S. Bank Asset Management, anticipated. “Our expectation has been that much of the election outcome’s impact will be seen at the sector level, with certain industries benefiting from new policies, while others may face more [...] A long and often divisive Presidential election season ended with a victory for Republican former President Donald Trump over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. President-elect Trump has proposed several specific economic policies that could represent a notable change from current and past policies. However, details have yet to be spelled out, and it is too early to determine the potential capital market impact that could result. [...] ## Short-term impact The day following the election, the U.S. stock market generated dramatic gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite Indexes reaching new record highs. At the same time, fixed income markets lost ground, with the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury securities rising significantly on the first, post-election trading day.