Lab Leak Theory

Extracted Attributes

• Nature of Theory

  Hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 originated from a laboratory

• Controversy Level

  Highly controversial

• Associated Research

  Gain-of-Function Research

• Competing Hypothesis

  Zoonosis hypothesis

• Impact on Scientists

  Provoked harassment, intimidation, threats, and violence

• Political Weaponization

  Yes, leveraged and increased anti-Chinese sentiment

• Earliest Mention (Tweet)

  January 5, 2020, by @GarboHK

• Lack of Evidence (Lab Leak)

  No evidence of genetic engineering, no prior existence in labs, no record of suspicious biosecurity incidents

• Scientific Consensus (Primary)

  Natural zoonotic transmission from bats to humans, likely via intermediate hosts

• Earliest Formalization (Preprint)

  January 31, 2020, by Indian Institute of Technology researchers

• Primary Suspected Lab Origin Site

  Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), Wuhan, China

• Circumstantial Evidence (Lab Leak)

  Proximity of WIV to outbreak, Chinese government's initial secrecy, reports of WIV researchers with COVID-like symptoms, high-risk coronavirus experiments at WIV

• Primary Suspected Natural Origin Site

  Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, Wuhan, China

Timeline

• The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 began in Wuhan, Hubei, China, with initial infections emerging at the Huanan wet market. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2019-12

• The earliest known recorded mention of any type of lab leak theory appeared in a tweet from a Hong Kong user named @GarboHK, insinuating the Chinese government created and released a new virus. (Source: Web Search Results)

  2020-01-05

• The idea that the virus was released from a laboratory gained popularity in the United States through promotion by conservative personalities. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2020-01

• Similar ideas were formalized in a preprint posted on BioRxiv by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology, claiming similarities between the new coronavirus' genome and that of HIV. (Source: Web Search Results)

  2020-01-31

• The World Health Organization (WHO) published a report which deemed the possibility of a lab leak "extremely unlikely," though the WHO's director-general stated the conclusions were not definitive. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2021-03

• The accidental leak idea experienced a resurgence in popularity. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2021

• Two papers published in Science described novel epidemiological and genetic evidence suggesting the pandemic likely began at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market and did not come from a laboratory. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2022-07

COVID-19 lab leak theory

The COVID-19 lab leak theory is the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, originated from a laboratory. This claim remains highly controversial; scientific consensus holds that the virus spread to human populations through natural zoonotic transmission from bats, similar to the SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV outbreaks, and consistent with other pandemics throughout human history. Available evidence indicates that SARS-CoV-2 was originally harbored by bats and transmitted to humans through infected wild animals serving as intermediate hosts at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, Hubei, China, in December 2019. Several candidate animal species have been identified as potential intermediate hosts. There is no evidence of genetic engineering, no indication that SARS-CoV-2 existed in any laboratory prior to the pandemic, and no record of suspicious biosecurity incidents at any laboratory. Many scenarios proposed for a lab leak are characteristic of conspiracy theories. Central to many is a misplaced suspicion based on the proximity of the outbreak to the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), where coronaviruses are studied. Most large Chinese cities have laboratories that study coronaviruses, and virus outbreaks typically begin in rural areas, but are first noticed in large cities. If a coronavirus outbreak occurs in China, there is a high likelihood it will occur near a large city, and therefore near a laboratory studying coronaviruses. The idea of a leak at the WIV also gained support due to secrecy during the Chinese government's response. The lab leak theory and its weaponization by politicians have both leveraged and increased anti-Chinese sentiment. Scientists from WIV had previously collected virus samples from bats in the wild, and allegations that they also performed undisclosed work on such viruses are central to some versions of the idea. Some versions, particularly those alleging genome engineering, are based on misinformation or misrepresentations of scientific evidence. The idea that the virus was released from a laboratory (accidentally or deliberately) appeared early in the pandemic. It gained popularity in the United States through promotion by conservative personalities in early 2020, fomenting tensions between the U.S. and China. Scientists and media outlets widely dismissed it as a conspiracy theory. The accidental leak idea had a resurgence in 2021. In March, the World Health Organization (WHO) published a report which deemed the possibility "extremely unlikely", though the WHO's director-general said the report's conclusions were not definitive. Subsequent plans for laboratory audits were rejected by China. Most scientists are skeptical of the possibility of a laboratory origin, citing a lack of any supporting evidence for a lab leak and the abundant evidence supporting zoonosis. Though some scientists agree a lab leak should be examined as part of ongoing investigations, politicization remains a concern. In July 2022, two papers published in Science described novel epidemiological and genetic evidence that suggested the pandemic likely began at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market and did not come from a laboratory.

Web Search Results

• COVID-19 lab leak theory - Wikipedia

  The lab leak theory is not a single discrete proposed scenario, but a collection of various proposed scenarios on a spectrum with, at one end, a careless accident from legitimate research; at the other, the engineering and release of a Chinese biological weapon.( While the proposed scenarios are theoretically subject to evidence-based investigation, it is not clear that any can be sufficiently falsified to placate lab leak supporters, as they are based on pseudoscientific and conspiratorial [...] The earliest known recorded mention of any type of lab leak theory appeared in the form of a tweet published on 5 January 2020, from a Hong Kong user named @GarboHK, insinuating that the Chinese government had created a new virus and intentionally released it.( Similar ideas were later formalized in a preprint posted on BioRxiv on 31 January 2020, by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology, claiming to find similarities between the new coronavirus' genome and that of HIV. The paper [...] A consistent feature of all varieties of the lab leak theory is that they direct blame at scientists. Scientists are accused of engineering the virus or negligently allowing it to escape their laboratories, and then conspiring to cover-up their misdeeds.(

• On the Controversies Surrounding the Lab-Leak Theory of COVID-19

  The second hypothesis is the so-called “_lab-leak_ theory,” suggesting that a new variant may have accidentally escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) during serial passage or gain-of-function research on SARS-related viruses. Some circumstantial evidence seems to support this theory, such as reports that some WIV researchers showed COVID-like symptoms early on, records of high-risk coronavirus experiments led by Dr. Shi Zhengli’s team, and the fact that the earliest outbreak [...] The third hypothesis is that the virus was deliberately engineered by the Chinese government or military as a biological weapon. This theory, however, lacks scientific credibility for multiple reasons. Most notably, if the virus were indeed developed as a bioweapon, there should have been a pre-developed vaccine or antidote to protect the developer's own population, which is a fundamental principle in biological warfare.8,9 In reality, China suffered massive losses during the COVID-19 pandemic. [...] That said, the emergence of the second and third theories cannot be dismissed solely as conspiracy thinking. Given the Chinese government's early actions—such as suppressing information, delaying disclosure of critical data, and silencing Chinese medical professionals—skepticism toward its transparency and credibility is not entirely unfounded. This lack of transparency severely hindered an objective investigation into the origin of the virus and fueled the spread of the _lab-leak_ or

• The harms of promoting the lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 ...

  The lab leak theory in all its forms casts unsupported blame on scientists, many of whom had warned of the potential threat of, and need for effective countermeasures to prevent, zoonotic transfer of viruses into humans. Scientists who studied coronaviruses or led the response to the pandemic have been accused of engineering SARS-CoV-2 or allowing it to escape from a lab due to inadequate biosafety. Some have been unfairly accused of being part of an international cover-up or accused of taking [...] bribes from NIH. Yet more scientists have been attacked for using objectively gathered data to conclude that zoonosis is the most likely origin of the pandemic or for simply engaging in communication of the evidence with the media and the general public. The unsubstantiated claims of the lab leak theory have provoked harassment, intimidation, threats and violence towards scientists, which are often vile in the online space. An article in Science reported that, of 510 researchers who had [...] There are two broad competing hypotheses for the origins of SARS-CoV-2: (i) the lab leak hypothesis, the most discussed version of which posits that the virus was modified, or even created, in the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) and, by some mechanism, escaped the laboratory; and (ii) the zoonosis hypothesis, wherein the virus emerged into the human population through a naturally occurring animal-to-human transmission. Viruses often spill over into humans, but these are typically dead-end

• CIA says lab leak most likely source of Covid outbreak - BBC

  Ratcliffe, who served as director of national intelligence during President Trump's first term, has long favoured the lab leak theory, claiming Covid most likely came from a leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The institute is a 40-minute drive from the Huanan wet market where the first cluster of infections emerged. [...] There is no consensus on the cause of the Covid pandemic. Some support a "natural origin" theory, which argues the virus spread naturally from animals, without the involvement of any scientists or laboratories. The lab leak hypothesis specifically has been hotly contested by scientists, including many who say there is no definitive evidence to back it up. And China has in the past dismissed the lab claim as "political manipulation" by Washington.

• Slate: A Very Calm Guide to the Lab Leak Theory

  A week ago, a Washington, D.C., man in his 30s with HIV became the first person to be infused with a heaping load of his own genetically modified cells that a Maryland biotech firm believes one day could lead to the elusive cure for the disease. American Gene Technologies’ method involves taking T cells out of a person’s blood and genetically modifying them in the lab to resist infection before they are reinfused. C. David Pauza is the company’s chief science officer and a former professor and [...] COVID-19 pandemic has been wreaking worldwide havoc for nearly 20 months now. Yet, Its origin and early spread continue to be one of the most intriguing scientific puzzles of recent history. Claims that the earliest coronavirus strains leaked out from a lab in the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China have resurfaced and subsided multiple times, throughout the course of the pandemic. While many such claims were eventually disregarded as unfounded speculations of conspiracy theorists, allegations [...] Tuesday, June 22, 2021 ### The Washington Post: Wuhan lab’s classified work complicates search for pandemic’s origins The Wuhan lab has drawn global scrutiny because of its research on bat coronaviruses in the city where the pandemic began. The events have shined a light on a research niche that — in China, the United States and elsewhere — operates with heightened secrecy because of the national security risks of handling deadly pathogens. Monday, June 21, 2021