2024 Election Polling

Extracted Attributes

• Key Trend

  Surge for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris

• Race Status

  Tightening

• Election Date

  2024-11-05

• Election Year

  2024

• Polling Sources

  270toWin, The New York Times, CNN, Pew Research Center, Fox News

• Geographic Scope

  Nationwide, crucial electoral states

• Candidates Polled

  Donald Trump, Kamala Harris

• Polling Methodologies

  Nationwide public opinion polls, state-specific polling averages, head-to-head matchups, exit polls, voter analysis

Timeline

• Most recent poll for West Virginia reported by 270toWin. (Source: web search)

  2024-08-30

• Most recent poll for Oklahoma reported by 270toWin. (Source: web search)

  2024-09-05

• Most recent poll for Arkansas reported by 270toWin. (Source: web search)

  2024-09-13

• Most recent poll for Connecticut reported by 270toWin. (Source: web search)

  2024-09-23

• Most recent poll for Delaware reported by 270toWin. (Source: web search)

  2024-09-27

• AtlasIntel conducted polls for Ohio, Texas, and Virginia (ending Nov 4). (Source: web search)

  2024-11-01

• HarrisX conducted polls for Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina (ending Nov 5). (Source: web search)

  2024-11-03

• Election Day, with The New York Times updating poll information. (Source: web search)

  2024-11-05

• CNN Exit Polls were updated. (Source: web search)

  2024-12-13

Nationwide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election

This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the general election for the 2024 United States presidential election. Those named in the polls were declared candidates or had received media speculation about their possible candidacy.

Web Search Results

• 2024 Presidential Election Polls: Harris vs. Trump - 270toWin

  # 2024 Presidential Election Polls This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. The average methodology is summarized below the table. The default view is Harris vs. Trump head-to-head. To view averages including 3rd party candidates, select the checkbox near the candidate names. For legacy polling, visit the Biden vs. Trump page. [...] \ The average includes the most recent poll from each source released within two weeks of the November 5 election. If there are fewer than five, the window is expanded to 30 days or five polls from the date of the most recent poll, whichever comes first. In the latter scenario, if there are multiple qualifying polls on the same calendar date as the oldest poll used, those will also be included. [...] Last Poll: Sep. 27 All Delaware Polls Connecticut (7) Harris 16% Most Recent Poll Last Poll: Sep. 23 All Connecticut Polls Arkansas (6) Trump 15% Most Recent Poll Last Poll: Sep. 13 All Arkansas Polls Oklahoma (7) Trump 16% Most Recent Poll Last Poll: Sep. 5 All Oklahoma Polls West Virginia (4) Trump 27% Most Recent Poll Last Poll: Aug. 30 All West Virginia Polls

• Election 2024 Polls: Harris vs. Trump

  | | | poll from AtlasIntel conducted Nov. 1 to 4, 2024 Nov. 1-4, 2024 | | Ohio | Trump +9 | 45% | 54% | | | | poll from AtlasIntel conducted Nov. 1 to 4, 2024 Nov. 1-4, 2024 | | Texas | Trump +11 | 44% | 55% | | | | poll from AtlasIntel conducted Nov. 1 to 4, 2024 Nov. 1-4, 2024 | | Virginia | Harris +5 | 51% | 46% | | 1 to 10 of 1,687 polls 1,000 to 1,000 of 1,687 polls | | | | | | | | [...] It’s Election Day, and the polls show one of the closest presidential races in the history of American politics. Nationwide or across the key battlegrounds collectively, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald J. Trump leads by more than a single percentage point. Neither candidate holds a meaningful edge in enough states to win 270 electoral votes. In the history of modern polling, there’s never been a campaign where the final polls showed such a close contest. Updated Nov. 5 [...] | | | Pollster | Sponsor | State | Margin | Harris | Trump | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | New poll from HarrisX conducted Nov. 3 to 5, 2024 Nov. 3-5, 2024New | | Wisconsin | Harris +2 | 51% | 49% | | | | New poll from HarrisX conducted Nov. 3 to 5, 2024 Nov. 3-5, 2024New | | Pennsylvania | Harris +4 | 52% | 48% | | | | New poll from HarrisX conducted Nov. 3 to 5, 2024 Nov. 3-5, 2024New | | North Carolina | Even | 50% | 50% |

• Election 2024: Exit polls

  22,966 total respondents | | Democrat 31% | Republican 35% | Independent 34% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Harris | 95% | 5% | 49% | | Trump | 4% | 94% | 46% | Updated 5:07 p.m. ET, Dec. 13 Ideology 22,966 total respondents | | Liberal 23% | Moderate 42% | Conservative 35% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Harris | 91% | 58% | 9% | | Trump | 7% | 40% | 90% | Updated 5:07 p.m. ET, Dec. 13 Race 22,966 total respondents [...] Updated 5:07 p.m. ET, Dec. 13 Who do you trust more to handle immigration? 22,966 total respondents | | Harris 44% | Trump 53% | | --- | --- | --- | | Harris | 97% | 7% | | Trump | 1% | 91% | Updated 5:07 p.m. ET, Dec. 13 Feeling if Harris elected president 22,966 total respondents | | Excited 23% | Optimistic 25% | Concerned 20% | Scared 30% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Harris | 99% | 93% | 7% | 1% | | Trump | 1% | 6% | 89% | 98% | Updated 5:07 p.m. ET, Dec. 13 [...] 22,966 total respondents | | Excited 22% | Optimistic 27% | Concerned 14% | Scared 35% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Harris | 2% | 5% | 84% | 97% | | Trump | 98% | 94% | 12% | 1% | Updated 5:07 p.m. ET, Dec. 13 Decided on presidential vote: 22,966 total respondents | | In last month 12% | Before that 87% | | --- | --- | --- | | Harris | 45% | 49% | | Trump | 47% | 50% | Updated 5:07 p.m. ET, Dec. 13 Decided on presidential vote: 22,966 total respondents

• 2. Voting patterns in the 2024 election

  Image 8: Chart shows Citizens who were born outside the U.S. supported Trump at much higher levels in 2024 than in 2020 Naturalized citizens were closely divided in the 2024 election: About half (51%) voted for Harris and 47% voted for Trump. This marked a shift from four years ago, when naturalized citizens backed Biden by a wide 59%-38% margin. [...] As has been the pattern through several elections, voters were sharply divided in 2024 by whether they have a college degree. Voters with a four-year degree or more education – who constitute about 40% of all voters – favored Harris by a double-digit margin (16 percentage points), while those without a college degree favored Trump by nearly as much (14 points). [...] Men favored Trump by 12 percentage points in the 2024 election, while women favored Harris by 7 points. Trump made gains among men compared with 2020 and held roughly steady among women: 55% of men voted for Trump in 2024, up from 50% of men in 2020. 46% of women voted for Trump in 2024, compared with 44% of women four years earlier. Image 1: Chart shows Trump’s support among Hispanic, Black voters higher in 2024 than in 2020, 2016 #### Race and ethnicity

• 2024 Fox News Voter Analysis

  | Gender, education 2 categories, race 2 categories | Total | Headshot of Kamala Harris Harris | Headshot of Donald Trump Trump | Headshot of Other Other Other | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | White non college men | 18% | 30% | 69% | 1% | | White non college women | 23% | 37% | 62% | 1% | | White college men | 16% | 48% | 50% | 2% | | White college women | 17% | 57% | 41% | 1% | | Non-white non college men | 7% | 58% | 41% | 1% | | Non-white non college women | 9% | 71% | 27% | 1% | [...] | Gender, sizeplace 3 categories | Total | Headshot of Kamala Harris Harris | Headshot of Donald Trump Trump | Headshot of Other Other Other | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Urban men | 10% | 58% | 40% | 1% | | Suburban men | 20% | 46% | 52% | 2% | | Small town/Rural men | 15% | 30% | 68% | 1% | | Urban women | 10% | 67% | 31% | 1% | | Suburban women | 24% | 56% | 42% | 1% | | Small town/Rural women | 19% | 39% | 60% | 1% | | All others | 1% | 72% | 21% | 6% | [...] | Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, or don't you consider yourself either? Would you say you're closer to the Democrats, to the Republicans, or don't you lean toward either? | Total | Headshot of Kamala Harris Harris | Headshot of Donald Trump Trump | Headshot of Other Other Other | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Democrat/Lean Dem | 44% | 95% | 4% | 1% | | Republican/Lean Rep | 49% | 7% | 92% | 1% | | Independent | 6% | 48% | 42% | 8% |