Middle East Escalation

Primary concern

Increased risk of regional war

Key characteristic

Heightened tensions

Political consequence

Fueled debate over Benjamin Netanyahu's military strategy in Gaza

Major contributing event

Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh

Location of Haniyeh assassination

Iran

Impact on Israel (Haniyeh assassination)

Demonstrated formidable capabilities

Attributed perpetrator of Haniyeh assassination

Israel's Mossad

2025-06-24

Hamas also escalated attacks on Israeli forces operating near buffer zones and aid sites. On 24 June, an ambush in Khan Yunis killed seven Israeli soldiers, the deadliest such attack in recent months. This escalation reflects Hamas’ response to internal pressures and external factors — including aid-related violence and shifting international attention — amid Gaza’s broader humanitarian crisis and local instability. [...] This lull in hostilities appears driven by both military and strategic considerations. Sustained US airstrikes since early 2024 have significantly degraded Houthi missile infrastructure and command capabilities.12At the same time, the group may be opting to conserve its resources and preserve its symbolic status as the most active member of the Axis of Resistance by avoiding premature escalation (_for more on the Houthis’ goals in light of recent regional escalations, see__this ACLED [...] While hostilities were halted following Trump’s ceasefire announcement on social media — issued after Iran’s restrained and highly telegraphed retaliatory attack on al-Udeid Air Base, which houses US troops, in Qatar — tensions remain high. Israeli and US strikes inflicted extensive damage on Iran’s nuclear facilities but fell short of achieving their complete destruction.

Hamas also escalated attacks on Israeli forces operating near buffer zones and aid sites. On 24 June, an ambush in Khan Yunis killed seven Israeli soldiers, the deadliest such attack in recent months. This escalation reflects Hamas’ response to internal pressures and external factors — including aid-related violence and shifting international attention — amid Gaza’s broader humanitarian crisis and local instability. [...] This lull in hostilities appears driven by both military and strategic considerations. Sustained US airstrikes since early 2024 have significantly degraded Houthi missile infrastructure and command capabilities.12 At the same time, the group may be opting to conserve its resources and preserve its symbolic status as the most active member of the Axis of Resistance by avoiding premature escalation (for more on the Houthis’ goals in light of recent regional escalations, see this ACLED report). [...] While hostilities were halted following Trump’s ceasefire announcement on social media — issued after Iran’s restrained and highly telegraphed retaliatory attack on al-Udeid Air Base, which houses US troops, in Qatar — tensions remain high. Israeli and US strikes inflicted extensive damage on Iran’s nuclear facilities but fell short of achieving their complete destruction.

Conflict in the Middle East has been escalating. These stories provide context for current developments and the history that led up to them. . For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link. Allow All ### Manage Consent Preferences #### Strictly Necessary or Essential Cookies Always Active [...] Israel announces plan to take over Gaza City, escalating the warIsrael's Security Cabinet approved a plan to take over Gaza City despite demands by families of hostages and mounting international calls for Israel to end the war. Image 15: Members of the Israeli security forces check the apparent remains of an Iranian ballistic missile lying on the ground on the outskirts of Qatzrin, Golan Heights, Israel. Special Series Middle East conflict -------------------- [...] - [x] Switch Label

A4: In their public statements, Gulf Arab countries have not supported the U.S. effort but have also resisted outright condemnation of the United States. Instead, they have raised concerns about the perils of escalation and called for restraint on all sides. Going forward, Gulf Arabs will seek to navigate a delicate path between the United States and Iran, seeking to minimize the spillover from the conflict. Traditional mediators such as Oman and Qatar will redouble their efforts to de-escalate [...] A1: The U.S. strikes on Iran mark a defining moment for the Middle East and perhaps the most consequential decision of Trump’s second-term presidency. The strikes hold the potential to catalyze the region’s trajectory into one of two key directions: either (1) compelling Iran toward negotiations and a de-escalation of tensions or (2) a widening conflict with regional and even global reverberations. Developments over the next several days will offer important signs as to which path the region is [...] countries. Shia populations could also become radicalized, especially in places with substantial Shia populations such as Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain, or the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. Over the long term, an open-ended conflict between Iran and the United States would upend the Gulf’s strategic vision for the Middle East, which depends on the de-escalation of conflict, diversified economies, and building economic ties across the region and globally. Indeed, for the Middle East more broadly,