Nonfarm Payrolls Revision

Extracted Attributes

• Significance

  Largest revision since the Great Recession

• Responsible Agency

  Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

• Impact on US Economy

  Signals a weaker economy than previously believed

• Typical Release Time

  First Friday of the month, 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time

• Magnitude of Revision

  818,000 jobs (downward adjustment)

• Affected Financial Assets

  US dollar, equities, gold

• Impact on Monetary Policy

  Could compel Federal Reserve to pursue earlier and more aggressive Interest Rate Cuts

• Scope of Nonfarm Payrolls

  Approximately 80% of the U.S. workforce, encompassing goods, construction, and manufacturing companies

• Exclusions from Nonfarm Payrolls

  Farm workers, private household employees, actively serving military, non-profit organization employees

• Impact on Other Economic Indicators

  Raises questions about the reliability of GDP

• Frequency of Nonfarm Payrolls Report

  Monthly

Timeline

• The July 2025 Nonfarm Payrolls report was released, including revisions for prior months. The May 2025 figure was revised down by 125,000 jobs (from +144,000 to +19,000), and the June 2025 figure was revised down by 133,000 jobs (from +147,000 to +14,000). (Source: web_search_results)

  2025-08-01

• Cumulative downward adjustment for May and June 2025 employment totaled 258,000 jobs, suggesting a more rapid cooling of the labor market than initially anticipated. (Source: web_search_results)

  2025-08-01

Nonfarm payrolls

Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. Approximately 80% of the workforce is accounted for nonfarm payrolls and it excludes farm workers, private household employees, actively serving military or non-profit organization employees. Approximately 131,000 businesses and government agencies, which amounts to around 670,000 worksites, are surveyed on a monthly basis. It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market. The financial assets most affected by the nonfarm payroll (NFP) data include the US dollar, equities and gold. The markets react very quickly and most of the time in a very volatile fashion around the time the NFP data is released. The short-term market moves indicate that there is a very strong correlation between the NFP data and the strength of the US dollar. Historical price movement data shows a small negative correlation between the NFP data and the US dollar Index. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report. The figure released is the change in nonfarm payrolls (NFP), compared to the previous month, and is usually between +10,000 and +250,000 during non-recessional times. That number is meant to represent the number of jobs added or lost in the economy over the last month, not including jobs relating to the farming industry.

Web Search Results

• Employment Situation Summary - 2025 M07 Results

  Revisions for May and June were larger than normal. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000, and the change for June was revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and [...] | The final benchmark revision will be issued with the publication of the January 2026 | | Employment Situation news release in February 2026. | |___________________________________________________________________________________________|

• How Unusual Was July's Jobs Report Revision? Here's What My ...

  But it was the Friday, August 1 release of the July 2025 nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report — along with revisions to the May and June figures — that most caught the attention of markets and economic observers. The headline NFP print for July came in at just 73,000 jobs added — below consensus expectations of a 105,000 job gain. But it was the revisions that shocked: May’s number was revised down by 125,000 jobs, and June’s by 133,000; a staggering, cumulative downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs. [...] Revisions are not just corrections — they are a window into the challenge of measuring a dynamic, multi-trillion-dollar labor market in real time. One potential remedy would be to reduce the frequency of nonfarm payroll releases to a quarterly or triannual schedule, trading timeliness for accuracy; however, the resulting gain in statistical precision would come at the cost of fewer real-time insights into labor market dynamics. [...] The July 2025 payroll revision figure of –258,000 drew attention not just for its magnitude, but for its apparent statistical improbability. With a z-score of –2.88 — meaning it lies nearly three standard deviations below the mean of historical revisions — the number stands out starkly against standard statistical benchmarks. Under the assumptions of a normal (Gaussian) distribution, a deviation of that size or greater would be expected to occur less than 0.2 percent of the time, or roughly

• Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Revisions between over-the-month ...

  | Dec. | 2023 | 216 | 333 | 290 | 117 | -43 | 74 | -167 | -86 | -78 | 81 | 8 | 89 | | Mean revision | 2023 | | | | -2 | -28 | -30 | | | | 6 | -12 | -6 | | Mean absolute revision | 2023 | | | | 37 | 51 | 51 | | | | 46 | 17 | 48 | [...] | Feb. | 2024 | 275 | 270 | 236 | -5 | -34 | -39 | 1141 | 1127 | 1119 | -14 | -8 | -22 | | Mar. | 2024 | 303 | 315 | 310 | 12 | -5 | 7 | 659 | 662 | 659 | 3 | -3 | 0 | | Apr. | 2024 | 175 | 165 | 108 | -10 | -57 | -67 | 803 | 791 | 791 | -12 | 0 | -12 | | May | 2024 | 272 | 218 | 216 | -54 | -2 | -56 | 917 | 844 | 841 | -73 | -3 | -76 | | Jun. | 2024 | 206 | 179 | 118 | -27 | -61 | -88 | 547 | 518 | 499 | -29 | -19 | -48 | [...] | Feb. | 2025 | 151 | 117 | 102 | -34 | -15 | -49 | 891 | 855 | 849 | -36 | -6 | -42 | | Mar. | 2025 | 228 | 185 | 120 | -43 | -65 | -108 | 556 | 467 | 458 | -89 | -9 | -98 | | Apr. | 2025 | 177 | 147 | 158 | -30 | 11 | -19 | 905 | 836 | 825 | -69 | -11 | -80 | | May | 2025 | 139 | 144 | 19 | 5 | -125 | -120 | 726 | 731 | 703 | 5 | -28 | -23 | | Jun. | 2025 | 147 | 14 | | -133 | | | 517 | 363 | | -154 | | | | Jul. | 2025 | 73 | | | | | | -1066 | | | | | |

• United States Non Farm Payrolls - Trading Economics

  US nonfarm payrolls rose by 73K in July 2025, well below expectations of 110K. The June figure was sharply revised down from an initial 147K to just 14K, while May's reading was also cut by 125K. Taken together, these revisions show that employment in May and June was 258K lower than previously reported—suggesting the labor market may be cooling more rapidly than initially anticipated. In July, employment continued to trend up in health care (55K), led by ambulatory health care services (34K) [...] US nonfarm payrolls rose by 73K in July 2025, well below expectations of 110K. The June figure was sharply revised down from an initial 147K to just 14K, while May's reading was also cut by 125K. Taken together, these revisions show that employment in May and June was 258K lower than previously repo...rted—suggesting the labor market may be cooling more rapidly than initially anticipated. In July, employment continued to trend up in health care (55K), led by ambulatory health care services [...] US nonfarm payrolls rose by 147K in June 2025, following an upwardly revised 144K in May and well above forecasts of 110K. The reading was also in line with the average monthly gain of 146K over the prior 12 months. Government employment rose by 73K, namely state government (47K), largely in educati...on (40K). Employment in local government education continued to trend up (23K). On the other hand, job losses continued in federal government (-7K), where employment is down by 69K since reaching

• Nonfarm Payrolls (Monthly Change, Cumulative Revisions of Past 2 ...

  The nonfarm payroll estimates the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes each month are revised twice afterwards. For each month, the 2nd estimate is published one month after the initial release, and the 3rd estimate published two months after the initial release. The initial release is referred to as “1st estimate” below. The monthly change data displayed in this chart refers to the cumulative revisions over the past two months, calculated as: (2nd estimate - 1st estimate) + (3rd estimate [...] More Image 1 #### Latest Stats Nonfarm Payrolls (Monthly Change, Cumulative Revisions of Past 2 Months) 2025-03 -48.00 k -2.00 k Next update: 6 Jun 2025 12-Month Moving Average 2025-03 -13.67 k -7.83 k Next update: 6 Jun 2025 #### Related Collections US Employment #### Source BLS #### Download Chart (png) Size Upgrade to the Business Plan to export charts with the latest values and without watermarks. Contact our specialists to learn more. Cancel Download [...] - 2nd estimate) For example, the value displayed for December 2023 equals to: (2nd estimate for November - 1st estimate for November) + (3rd estimate for October - 2nd estimate for October) When assessing the freshly released nonfarm payroll estimate for the month, we can consider the cumulative revisions for the past two months. For instance, if the latest release exceeds market expectations, but cumulative revisions for the past two months show significant downward revision, then the actual