AI super cycle

Extracted Attributes

• Duration

  Long-term trend that can last decades

• Definition

  A period of significant advancement and market activity in artificial intelligence, potentially characterized by periods of rapid growth followed by corrections.

• Key Milestone

  Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

• Economic Impact

  Disrupting current economic models through technological advancement

• Strategic Shift

  Move from Large Language Models (LLMs) to Small Language Models (SLMs) and Vertical AI Applications

• Societal Responsibility

  Prioritizing research into benefits and risks of human and machine cognitive enhancement

• Potential Follow-up to AGI

  Superintelligence

• Influencing Factor (Research)

  MIT Generative AI study revealing 95% corporate AI pilot failures

• Alternative Interpretation (Downturn)

  Bursting AI Bubble

• Influencing Factor (Industry Outlook)

  Cautious comments from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman

• Alternative Interpretation (Correction)

  Healthy correction within a longer AI super cycle

Timeline

• A significant market correction in artificial intelligence, termed "AI Mania hits the brakes," occurred, triggering debate over whether it was a bursting "AI Bubble" or a healthy correction within a longer "AI super cycle." This was influenced by an MIT Generative AI study and cautious comments from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. (Source: document 4874fca1-99d6-45cc-9997-886425bb19bc)

  2024

• An "AI hiring freeze" was instituted at Meta by CEO Mark Zuckerberg, signaling a major trend in the market shift. (Source: document 4874fca1-99d6-45cc-9997-886425bb19bc)

  2024

• The AI industry began a strategic shift away from monolithic Large Language Models (LLMs) towards more efficient Small Language Models (SLMs) and successful Vertical AI Applications. (Source: document 4874fca1-99d6-45cc-9997-886425bb19bc)

  2024

• AI optimism suffered a setback due to Chinese start-up DeepSeek's claims of developing advanced AI models at a much lower cost, triggering a substantial sell-off in AI-related stocks, particularly NVIDIA. (Source: web_search_results)

  2024-08-XX

• The market experienced "tough days" for AI stocks, leading to renewed discussions and "ramblings" about whether the AI super cycle was over. (Source: web_search_results)

  2024-09-XX

Superintelligence

A superintelligence is a hypothetical agent that possesses intelligence surpassing that of the brightest and most gifted human minds. "Superintelligence" may also refer to a property of advanced problem-solving systems that excel in specific areas (e.g., superintelligent language translators or engineering assistants). Nevertheless, a general purpose superintelligence remains hypothetical and its creation may or may not be triggered by an intelligence explosion or a technological singularity. University of Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom defines superintelligence as "any intellect that greatly exceeds the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest". The program Fritz falls short of this conception of superintelligence—even though it is much better than humans at chess—because Fritz cannot outperform humans in other tasks. Technological researchers disagree about how likely present-day human intelligence is to be surpassed. Some argue that advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will probably result in general reasoning systems that lack human cognitive limitations. Others believe that humans will evolve or directly modify their biology to achieve radically greater intelligence. Several future study scenarios combine elements from both of these possibilities, suggesting that humans are likely to interface with computers, or upload their minds to computers, in a way that enables substantial intelligence amplification. Some researchers believe that superintelligence will likely follow shortly after the development of artificial general intelligence. The first generally intelligent machines are likely to immediately hold an enormous advantage in at least some forms of mental capability, including the capacity of perfect recall, a vastly superior knowledge base, and the ability to multitask in ways not possible to biological entities. This may allow them to — either as a single being or as a new species — become much more powerful than humans, and displace them. Several scientists and forecasters have been arguing for prioritizing early research into the possible benefits and risks of human and machine cognitive enhancement, because of the potential social impact of such technologies.

Web Search Results

• Unlocking the Full Potential of the AI Supercycle

  The BITA VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle Index is a rules-based composite index that tracks the market performance of companies, listed on global stock exchanges, that derive their revenues from producing high-performance semiconductors, and building and operating AI-enabled applications and datacenters. [...] The BITA VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle Index is a rules-based composite index that tracks the market performance of companies, listed on global stock exchanges, that derive their revenues from producing high-performance semiconductors, and building and operating AI-enabled applications and datacenters. Active Share. Active Share is a measure of how much a portfolio’s holdings differ from its benchmark index. [...] ### VistaShares Investment Committee Image 3: Unlocking the Full Potential of the AI Supercycle™ Artificial intelligence (AI) is one of today’s most interesting investment themes with a significant runway for growth. That’s why we designate AI as one of our Supercycles™—long-term trends that can last decades, disrupting current economic models through technological advancement.

• Infrastructure boom, beyond Big Tech, and custom AI chips

  At VistaShares, we focus on capturing the entire AI supply chain—not just the obvious winners. The VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF (AIS) is designed to provide exposure to the companies driving AI infrastructure, computing power, and connectivity. As AI investment themes evolve, we remain committed to identifying opportunities beyond the headlines, ensuring that investors are positioned for AI’s long-term supercycle. [...] The BITA VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle Index is a rules-based composite index that tracks the market performance of companies, listed on global stock exchanges, that derive their revenues from producing high-performance semiconductors, and building and operating AI-enabled applications and datacenters. Active Share. Active Share is a measure of how much a portfolio’s holdings differ from its benchmark index. [...] AI is moving fast—so are the investment opportunities. The AI Supercycle™ Report captures the key developments over the past two weeks that AI investors interested in capturing the entire supply chain need to know. We also include examples of companies well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, as well as our Chart of the Week. 1. The Times: Big US Tech Firms to Spend $300bn on AI Infrastructure

• Investing in the AI Supercycle

  According to VistaShares, understanding and analyzing supercycles is crucial for navigating markets and making well-informed investment decisions. They believe that most AI ETFs on the market do not fully capture the potential impact of machine learning and related technologies across sectors. The actively managed VistaShares AI Supercycle ETF AIS aims to invest across the entire AI ecosystem, from memory and cooling systems to data centers and energy solutions. [...] In this episode of ETF Spotlight, I speak with Adam Patti, CEO of VistaShares, about investing in the AI supercycle. AI optimism, which had driven the markets higher for the past two years, suffered a setback last month as investors weighed the implications of a new AI model released by Chinese start-up DeepSeek. DeepSeek’s claims of developing advanced AI models at a much lower cost triggered a substantial sell-off in AI-related stocks, particularly NVIDIA NVDA.

• A deep dive into the AI workload super cycle - Wing Venture Capital

  The AI workload super cycle is not merely a technological phenomenon; it is a seismic shift that is reshaping the core of the technology industry. Nvidia's leadership in this space, driven by relentless innovation and strategic partnerships, is emblematic of the transformative power of AI workloads. Despite formidable challenges and intensifying competition, the future of AI workloads holds immense promise, brimming with opportunities for innovation, discovery, and societal impact. As the super [...] The AI workload super cycle not only drives technological advancements, but also reshapes the broader landscape of AI applications. GPU providers play a pivotal role in shaping the direction of AI, akin to the influence exerted by cloud providers in previous technology cycles. As AI becomes increasingly integrated into industries ranging from healthcare and finance to autonomous vehicles and entertainment, the demand for specialized hardware solutions and software frameworks continues to soar. [...] Historically, technology super cycles have been characterized by exuberant investments in infrastructure. The current GPU super cycle draws parallels to past phenomena, such as the telecom super cycle, where infrastructure investments ultimately led to a proliferation of consumer applications. This historical context highlights the potential for AI to transition from a specialized field to a pervasive and transformative force across industries.

• The State Of The AI Super Cycle - NVIDIA, Apple, And ...

  After a few tough days in the market to start off September, there is another wave of ramblings and musings as to whether the AI super cycle is over? And if not, what’s left and where do we go from here? Despite its recent pull backs and the challenging news cycle it has faced, I would argue so far it has only been an NVIDIA super cycle in terms of money being made, with adjacent winners in the chipmaking and design space like TSMC, Synopsys, Micron Technology, Arm, and a few others. [...] Then there is a collection of companies just trying to find their place in the AI race. We know the AI device (handsets and PCs) cycle has been a bit slower and that incremental growth of SaaS from AI is showing signs of life from the likes of ServiceNow Inc., Salesforce Inc., and CrowdStrike Inc., who are proving AI can provide stickiness and drive growth on the top and bottom lines. Things have only just begun here. [...] We have seen recent earnings reports where companies like Walmart Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. are beginning to explain how AI is improving supply chains and reducing developer costs considerably. Seeing these types of AI consumption for business efficiency and productivity gains will offset some of the concerns about long-term value.