Recession Fears

Nature

Persistent

Associated Risks

Inflation

Historical Causes

Trade tensions and tariffs (e.g., under President Donald Trump)

Impact on Market Expectations

Leading to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut

Associated Economic Indicators

Stock prices fall, consumer spending slows down, difficulty in obtaining loans

Contributing Factor (Technology)

AI buildout in a 'hype cycle' causing market volatility

Contributing Factor (Economic Growth)

Massive government spending artificially propping up nominal growth

2024-09

2025-03-12

2025-04-02

2025-04

Recession fears are rising—what to expect if one happens ======================================================== Published Wed, Mar 12 2025 1:42 PM EDT Image 4: thumbnail Mike Winters@mike_wintrs Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email Image 5 miniseries | Getty As President Donald Trump escalated trade tensions with new tariffs and retaliatory threats, the stock market tumbled this week, fueling recession fears. [...] Stock prices fall. During past downturns, the value of retirement savings dropped sharply, making people feel poorer. A prolonged stock slump is often an early sign of a recession. Spending slows down. When people have less money or are afraid of losing their jobs, they tend to cut back on big purchases like cars and vacations, which hurts businesses. Getting a loan is harder. Banks tighten lending, making it tougher to buy a home, start a business or even get a credit card. [...] Published Time: 2025-03-12T17:42:28+0000 Recession fears are rising—what to expect if one happens =============== Skip Navigation Image 1: logo Image 2: logo Image 3: logo Recession fears are rising—what to expect if one happens Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email Success Startups Side Hustles Power Players Leadership Money Earn Spend Save and Invest Become Debt-Free Work

Anxiety among experts about a possible recession peaked in April, after President Donald Trump announced higher-than-expected "reciprocal" tariffs on numerous trading partners. At the time, forecasters were concerned that the rapidly escalating trade war would push up inflation and drag down the economy. Some economists even said a recession was more likely than not. [...] Economists' worries about a possible recession peaked in April, but have since faded. Joe Raedle / Getty Images Close ### Key Takeaways The U.S. economy is likely to avoid a recession in the second half of the year, forecasters said in their mid-year outlooks. President Donald Trump has walked back some of his most extreme tariff proposals, reducing the risks to the economy. [...] Since then, however, Trump has paused or rolled back some of his most extreme tariff announcements, easing fears of a sharp downturn. Still, many tariffs remain in place, including a 10% tariff on most countries, 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum and 25% duties on foreign cars.1 Several economists said those tariffs will likely slow the economy but not drag it into an outright recession.

Robert Ruggirello, chief investment officer at Brave Eagle Wealth Management, says investors who sold stocks in the first half of 2025 over fears surrounding the economy, geopolitical conflict, tariffs or any other factors missed out on some solid market gains. "Our message to our investors is that we are sticking with our plan and not trying to time the market," Ruggirello says. [...] Many factors can trigger or contribute to a recession, but a couple of specific issues are likely the biggest risks to economic stability in 2025: tariffs and inflation. In the first half of the year, Trump implemented and threatened to implement aggressive tariffs on goods imported from China and other U.S. trade partners around the world, making tariffs a central part of his economic plan. [...] Supporters of Trump's tariff strategy say it will help U.S. businesses compete with lower-cost imported products and encourage American companies to hire U.S. workers and choose to manufacture goods domestically. Critics argue tariffs will force U.S. companies to pay higher prices for imported goods and components, and many of these companies will simply pass on those higher costs to consumers by raising prices. Widespread price hikes could be a nightmare scenario for an economy that is already

ByDerek Saul # How Close Is The U.S. To A Recession? Here’s What Key Indicators Say. ByDerek Saul, Forbes Staff. ## Topline As President Donald Trump’s oft-changing tariff policies work their way through the economy, fears of a downturn pervade Main Street and Wall Street, with odds of the U.S. facing a recession still higher than usual. [...] ## How Gold And Oil Prices Suggest Recession Fears Still Exist [...] Experts largely viewed the prospect of a tariff-driven recession as more likely than not prior to the China de-escalation. Torsten Slok, the chief economist at asset management titan Apollo Global Management, wrote last month he believes there’s a 90% probability the U.S. will fall into a “Voluntary Trade Reset Recession,” slamming Trump’s trade policies for being “implemented in a way that has not been effective” after his “administration inherited an economy with strong growth.” Bank of