All-In Breakdown

Rising Graduate Unemployment

Topic

A trend where recent college graduates, particularly male students, are having a harder time finding jobs, challenging the traditional value proposition of a degree.

First Mentioned

9/17/2025, 2:49:46 AM

Last Updated

9/17/2025, 2:58:46 AM

Research Retrieved

9/17/2025, 2:58:46 AM

Summary

Rising graduate unemployment is a significant concern within the broader crisis facing higher education, which includes an eroding business model, declining public trust, and massive student loan debt. This issue is exacerbated by questions surrounding the return on investment for higher education and internal problems like administrative bloat within universities. Recent data indicates a substantial increase in unemployment rates for new graduates, driven by structural shifts in tech hiring, a slowdown in formerly hot sectors, and the growing impact of AI displacing entry-level jobs. While universities aim to prepare students for the future of work by teaching uniquely human skills, the challenge of graduate unemployment persists, further complicated by external pressures such as political interference, Supreme Court rulings on affirmative action, and a decline in K-12 education that results in students entering college unprepared. Despite these challenges, university leaders are exploring the transformative potential of AI in higher education and defending the crucial role of university endowments, funded by philanthropy, in providing financial aid and supporting research.

Referenced in 1 Document
Research Data
Extracted Attributes
  • Primary Causes

    Structural shifts in tech hiring, growing impact of AI, slowdown in formerly hot sectors, mismatch between oversupply of graduates and waning business demand, employer preferences for experienced workers, displacement of entry-level positions by AI

  • Economic Impact

    Adds to Federal Reserve's concerns of a slowing economy, weakening labor market, and accelerating inflation

  • Labor Force Participation

    Recent college graduates remain undeterred, with participation rates not noticeably declining

  • Labor Market Condition (Encoura)

    Highest unemployment rate for 22-27 age group since October 2013 (excluding pandemic disruption)

  • Labor Market Condition (NBC News)

    Toughest job market for recent graduates since 2015

  • National Unemployment Rate (June 2025)

    4.0%

  • National Unemployment Rate (CBS News context)

    4.2%

  • National Unemployment Rate (NBC News context)

    4%

  • Unemployment Rate (Recent Graduates, 22-27, Nearing)

    6%

  • Current Unemployment Rate (Recent Graduates, June 2025)

    4.8%

  • Unemployment Rate (Recent Graduates, 22-27, March 2025)

    5.8%

  • Recent College Graduates Proportion of Total Labor Force

    5%

  • Average Unemployment Rate (Recent Graduates, NBC News analysis)

    5.3%

  • Contribution to National Unemployment Rate Rise (since mid-2023)

    12% of an 85% rise

Timeline
  • The unemployment rate for recent college graduates (22-27) was 5.9%, marking the highest rate until March 2025 (excluding the pandemic disruption). (Source: Encoura)

    2013-10-01

  • The job market for recent graduates was last this tough, according to an analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. (Source: NBC News)

    2015-01-01

  • The recent college graduate unemployment rate (among those aged 22-27) stood at 3.9%. (Source: Encoura)

    2020-03-01

  • The recent college graduate unemployment rate (among those aged 22-27) stood at 4.1%. (Source: Encoura)

    2023-03-01

  • Since mid-2023, unemployed recent college graduates accounted for 12% of an 85% rise in the national unemployment rate. (Source: CBS News)

    2023-07-01

  • The unemployment rate for recent college graduates (22-27) reached 5.8%, the highest since October 2013 (excluding the pandemic disruption). (Source: Encoura)

    2025-03-01

  • Oxford Economics published a research briefing titled 'Educated but unemployed, a rising reality for US college grads,' highlighting structural shifts in tech hiring and the impact of AI. (Source: Oxford Economics)

    2025-05-27

  • As of the latest data, new graduates faced an unemployment rate of 4.8% compared to the national overall rate of 4.0%. (Source: Visual Capitalist)

    2025-06-01

Web Search Results
  • Rising number of college grads are unemployed, new research shows

    That's according to a new report from Oxford Economics which shows that unemployed recent college grads account for 12% of an 85% rise in the national unemployment rate since mid-2023. That's a high number, given that this cohort only makes up 5% of the total labor force. What's more, the rate of unemployment among workers who have recently graduated from college and are between the ages of 22 and 27, is nearing 6% —which is above the national unemployment rate of 4.2%. [...] So why are recent college grads are having a tougher time finding work post-college than previous graduating classes did? While the report points to a couple of factors, it finds that a slowdown in hiring in formerly hot sectors is driving the growth in unemployment among degree holders. "The rise in the recent graduate unemployment rate is largely part of a mismatch between an oversupply of recent graduates in fields where business demand has waned," according to the report. [...] # Rising number of college grads are unemployed, new research shows Recent college graduates are having a harder time finding work, despite their higher education degrees, which usually give job-seekers a leg up in the labor market.

  • Charted: The Rising Unemployment Rate of College Graduates

    ### AI Advances Leading to Fewer Entry-Level Opportunities As of the latest data from June, 2025, new graduates now face an unemployment rate of 4.8% compared to the national overall rate of 4.0%. While the broader economy has recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, AI advances and employer preferences for experienced workers appear to be squeezing entry-level job prospects, resulting in a tougher entry into the labor market for new college graduates. [...] | 27/02/2025 | 53% | 33% | 20% | 24% | 32% | 39% | | 06/03/2025 | 52% | 31% | 22% | 26% | 35% | 43% | [...] | Week | Happy | Optimistic | Inspired | Sad | Frustrated | Stressed | | 02/01/2025 | 63% | 35% | 23% | 23% | 25% | 35% | | 09/01/2025 | 57% | 33% | 23% | 20% | 26% | 35% | | 16/01/2025 | 56% | 33% | 21% | 24% | 27% | 35% | | 23/01/2025 | 57% | 32% | 26% | 21% | 28% | 35% | | 30/01/2025 | 52% | 33% | 23% | 28% | 34% | 42% | | 06/02/2025 | 51% | 32% | 23% | 24% | 32% | 39% | | 13/02/2025 | 53% | 33% | 22% | 23% | 34% | 41% | | 20/02/2025 | 52% | 31% | 22% | 20% | 31% | 37% |

  • Educated but unemployed, a rising reality for US college grads

    Skip to content Request a trial Research Briefing 27 May 2025 # Educated but unemployed, a rising reality for US college grads Structural shifts in tech hiring and the growing impact of AI are driving higher unemployment among recent college graduates. Higher recent college graduate unemployment will add to the Federal Reserve’s concerns of a slowing economy, weakening labor market, and accelerating inflation. [...] Higher unemployment among recent college graduates is primarily a function of a structural shift in hiring in the tech sector amid strong labor supply growth. While some of it is related to a normalization after the post-pandemic surge, there are signs that entry-level positions are being displaced by artificial intelligence at higher rates. Despite uncertain employment prospects, recent college graduates remain undeterred, as labor force participation rates haven’t noticeably declined.

  • 'A black hole': New graduates discover a dismal job market

    The national economic data backs up their experience. The unemployment rate among recent graduates has been increasing this year to an average of 5.3%, compared to around 4% for the labor force as a whole, making it one of the toughest job markets for recent graduates since 2015, according to an analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released Friday.

  • The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates – Part 1 - Encoura

    Just two years ago, the recent college graduate unemployment rate (among those aged 22-27) stood at 4.1% (March 2023), similar to the 3.9% rate in March 2020, just before the massive pandemic disruption. In fact, today’s 5.8% rate is the highest unemployment rate for this group since October 2013 at 5.9% (again, ignoring an anomalous pandemic swing). A number of articles have pointed to this trend with alarm: [...] As usual, more nuances are needed to understand the current predicament. What many recent articles do not point out is that, while the unemployment rate for recent college graduates is indeed growing, it still beats the overall unemployment rate for all young workers (aged 22-27). Figure 1 shows key unemployment rate segmentations from March 2025. Figure 1 [...] Unfortunately, this task is more daunting this summer with the recent college graduate unemployment rate slowly ticking up. March 2025 data reveals an unemployment rate of 5.8% for this group—the highest since October 2013 (ignoring the wild pandemic disruption). So, what else do we know about this trend and how do the numbers look among specific majors? ## The Numbers in Context