All-In Breakdown

Tech Job Market Downturn

Topic

A significant decrease in job postings for software developers, down 80% from its peak and below pre-COVID levels, attributed to economic weakness and the end of the ZIRP era rather than AI-driven job replacement.

First Mentioned

9/29/2025, 5:46:48 AM

Last Updated

9/29/2025, 5:48:13 AM

Research Retrieved

9/29/2025, 5:48:13 AM

Summary

The tech job market downturn is primarily attributed to macroeconomic economic weakness, specifically interest rate hikes, rather than direct job displacement by artificial intelligence. This economic climate has significantly impacted even the largest technology companies, known as "Big Tech" or "Tech Giants," including prominent American firms like Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, which are among the world's largest by market capitalization. While AI is not the main cause of the overall downturn, it is contributing to a significant shift in the workforce, leading to declines in administrative, entry-level, and some developer roles, while simultaneously increasing demand for high-skill, AI-related, and senior positions. The downturn has seen tech job postings fall significantly from their early 2022 peak and pre-pandemic levels, though a slow recovery is anticipated by late 2025, particularly for specialized roles. Broader industry discussions, such as OpenAI's strategic corporate structure considerations and ongoing regulatory actions like the EU's antitrust investigation into Microsoft, further contextualize the dynamic environment of the tech sector during this period.

Referenced in 1 Document
Research Data
Extracted Attributes
  • AI's Role

    Not the primary cause of overall downturn, but driving workforce shift and impacting specific roles

  • Primary Cause

    Macroeconomic economic weakness

  • Recovery Outlook

    Slowly but surely recovering by Q4 2025, good for senior and AI-expert professionals

  • Contributing Factor

    Interest rate hikes

  • Affected Roles (Declining)

    Software engineers (down 49%), developer-related roles (down over 50%), administrative roles, Scrum Master, entry-level positions (People, Marketing, Engineering - plummet by 75-84%), junior roles, new grads (Big Tech: 7% of hires, down 25% from 2023, over 50% from pre-pandemic; Startups: under 6% of hires, down 11% from 2023, over 30% from pre-pandemic)

  • Affected Companies (Big Tech)

    Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta

  • Affected Roles (Increasing/Holding Up)

    AI and other tech-engineering job titles, automation, systems integration, and robotics-related roles (20-25% job growth), high-skill new jobs, senior and AI-expert professionals, machine learning and data engineering

  • Tech Employment Share in Economy Trend

    Decreased steadily since November 2022

  • Overall US Tech Job Postings Trend (as of 2025-07-11)

    Down 36% from pre-pandemic level

Timeline
  • US total and tech job postings indexed to 100 (pre-pandemic baseline). (Source: web_search_results)

    2020-02

  • Tech job postings more than doubled from pre-pandemic levels. (Source: web_search_results)

    2022-Early

  • Tech employment as a share of overall employment began decreasing steadily. (Source: web_search_results)

    2022-11

  • Everyone in the tech job market took a hit in hiring. (Source: web_search_results)

    2023

  • Hiring bounced back for mid- and senior-level roles; the IT job market in the US may have looked bleak. (Source: web_search_results)

    2024

  • Postings were down from pre-pandemic levels among most tech job titles. (Source: web_search_results)

    2025-Early

  • Tech job postings were down 36% from their pre-pandemic level. (Source: web_search_results)

    2025-07-11

  • The tech job market outlook is shifting, indicating a potential recovery. (Source: web_search_results)

    2025-Mid-to-late

  • A turning point is foreseen, with high-skill roles in the spotlight. (Source: web_search_results)

    2025-Q4

Wikipedia
View on Wikipedia
Big Tech

Big Tech, also referred to as the Tech Giants or Tech Titans, is a collective term for the largest and most influential technology companies in the world. In the United States, it commonly denotes the six dominant firms—Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta—which are also the six largest companies in the world by market cap, and all of which are American companies. An expanded grouping, sometimes called the Magnificent Seven, includes Broadcom and historically included Tesla. The label draws a parallel to similar classifications in other industries, such as Big Oil, Big Soda, Big Pharma, or Big Tobacco. The concept of Big Tech can also extend to the major Chinese technology firms—Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi—collectively referred to as BATX.

Web Search Results
  • The US Tech Hiring Freeze Continues

    _Table titled “Postings for some tech-titles have increased amid the broader market decline” shows the common tech job titles with the largest increases and largest declines in job postings between Jan-Feb 2020 and Jan-Feb 2025. Several developer-related roles have dropped most (by over 50%), while a range of AI and other tech-engineering job titles are among the few that have held up._ _Methodology_ [...] As of early 2025, postings were down from pre-pandemic levels among most tech job titles. Of the 149 tech titles with at least 1000 postings in early 2025, only 28 (19%) exceeded their pre-pandemic level, while almost the same number of titles had dropped by over 40%, including software engineers, still the most common tech job title (down 49%). Declines were especially sharp among jobs in the middle of the tech wage-spectrum (as measured by 2024 posted salaries), including for several types of [...] Image 3: Line chart titled “U.S. tech job postings have gone from boom to bust” shows the trend in US total and tech job postings between February 2020 and July 2025, both series index to equal 100 in February 2020. Tech job postings more than doubled through early 2022, but have fully retreated since, down 36% from their pre-pandemic level as of July 11, 2025.

  • Report: The tech job market in 2025 - Ravio

    Role disruption ## Hiring rates for admin and support roles drop as AI capabilities increase Administrative roles that were once essential are now experiencing significant declines as AI systems take over many menial tasks and repeatable processes. This trend extends beyond traditional admin roles into technical teams as well, with the Scrum Master role seeing a particularly steep decline. [...] As AI capabilities increase, companies aren't just reducing administrative roles, they're dramatically cutting entry-level positions across the board. Junior roles in People, Marketing, and Engineering are particularly impacted, seeing hiring rates plummet by 75-84% in just one year. [...] This decline indicates a need for companies to re-evaluate which human roles truly matter, and top employees in administrative roles may need support to develop new skillsets and bring new impact to the business. Workforce shift ## Entry-level hiring collapsed by 73.4% as AI impacts traditional career starting points

  • Tech Job Market 2025: Hiring Outlook & Trends - UnitedCode

    Whether you’re wondering how many jobs are available in technology or when will tech hiring pick up again, the short answer is: now is the time to prepare. The IT job market in the US in 2024 may have looked bleak, but as of mid-to-late 2025, the tech job market outlook is shifting. It’s time to take advantage of this rare supply, demand, and strategic transformation alignment. So, as a result: [...] According to Staffing Industry Analysts, this structural change can have a profound impact on employment trends: Job loss in traditional roles: Manufacturing and logistics roles can decline by 10–15%, implying a job loss of approximately 100,000–150,000 jobs. Job creation in automation roles: Automation, systems integration, and robotics-related roles are expected to see 20–25% job growth, resulting in the addition of 120,000–180,000 high-skill new jobs. [...] Is the tech market recovering in 2025?Yes – slowly but surely. By Q4, we foresee a turning point, with high-skill roles in the spotlight. The late 2025 outlook for the tech employment market is good for senior and AI-expert professionals. Does the tech industry have a future?Yes. With continued investment in AI, cybersecurity, fintech, and clean energy, tech is the cornerstone of global growth.

  • How Will AI Affect the Global Workforce? | Goldman Sachs

    “While some of the decline can be attributed to payback from over-hiring during the pandemic, tech’s employment share has now fallen below its (remarkably linear) pre-pandemic trend, a pattern probably related to AI automation,” Briggs and Dong write. Image 3: Chart showing the share of tech employment in the economy has fallen below trend Image 4: Chart showing the share of tech employment in the economy has fallen below trend [...] In addition, employment growth in technology-sector occupations such as computer systems design, software publishing, and web search portals has slowed sharply. Tech employment as a share of overall employment has decreased steadily since November 2022.

  • The SignalFire State of Tech Talent Report - 2025

    Everyone took a hit in 2023, but while hiring bounced back in 2024 for mid- and senior-level roles, the cut keeps getting deeper for new grads: Big Tech:New grads now account for just 7% of hires, with new hires down 25% from 2023 and over 50% from pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Startups: New grads make up under 6% of hires, with new hires down 11% from 2023 and over 30% from pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Image 3 Image 4 [...] Even top computer science grads aren’t spared. As demand for junior roles declines, even highly credentialed engineering grads are struggling to break into tech, especially at the Big Tech companies. The share of new graduates landing roles at the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Tesla) has dropped by more than half since 2022. [...] This shift isn’t just about hiring less—it’s a hiring reset. As AI tools take overmore routine, entry-level tasks, companies are prioritizing roles that deliver high-leverage technical output. Big Tech is doubling down on machine learning and data engineering, while non-technical functions like recruiting, product, and sales keep shrinking, making it especially tough for Gen Z and early-career talent to break in. Image 8