Population Decline

Extracted Attributes

• Definition

  A reduction in a human population size

• Also known as

  Depopulation

• Mitigation Efforts

  Increasing the size and productivity of the workforce

• Consequence (Social)

  Challenges to social safety net programs

• Consequence (Economic)

  Increased pressure on public services due to more elderly relying on them and fewer working to finance them; economic stagnation; labor shortages

• Primary Cause of Decline

  Abrupt decline in global total fertility rate

• Consequence (Geopolitical)

  Impact on geopolitical influence

• Economic Model for Decline

  Shifting to a model based on degrowth and equity

• Replacement Fertility Rate

  2.2 children per woman (ignoring migration)

• Consequence (Environmental)

  Eases pressure on the planet, helps fight climate change, creates a healthy, biologically rich world

• US Population Over 65 (1960)

  9% of the population

• US Population Over 65 (2021)

  Nearly 17% of the population

• Contributing Factors (General)

  Lower infant mortality, reduced need for children as family labor or retirement welfare, better access to education for young women, broadened job prospects for women

• US Population Decline Projection

  Will most likely begin to decline by 2080

• Contributing Factors (US Specific)

  Rising cost of living, stagnating wages, increasing cost of having kids

• Global Total Fertility Rate (1963)

  5.3

• Global Total Fertility Rate (2023)

  2.2

• Peak Global Population Growth Rate

  2.1% annually during 1962–1968

• Global Population Growth Rate (2023)

  0.9% annually

• Contributing Factors (Modern Societies)

  Cultural individualism, postponed marriage and parenthood, disconnection between marriage and procreation, high rates of divorce, more co-habitation, frequent contraceptive use, rising incidence of voluntary childlessness, disengagement from civic and community-orientated networks, denial of authority, greater gender equity, increased female economic autonomy, fluid life course arrangements, shifted age structure in favour of the elderly

• US Population Over 65 (Projected by 2100)

  Over 29% of the population

• Current Population Decline Rate (China, 2023)

  About 0.2% per year

• Current Population Decline Rate (Japan, 2023)

  0.5% per year

• Global Growth Rate in Absolute Numbers (2023)

  70.4 million

• Global Growth Rate in Absolute Numbers (Peak)

  92.8 million in 1990

• Projected Population Decline Rate (Europe, by 2050)

  0.3% per year

• Historical Global Population Growth Rate (before 1800)

  About 0.04% per year

• Historical Global Population Growth Rate (after 1800 acceleration)

  Accelerated significantly

Timeline

• Global population grew very slowly, about 0.04% per year. (Source: Wikipedia)

  Before 1800

• Global population growth rate accelerated significantly. (Source: Summary, Wikipedia)

  After 1800

• Global population growth rate peaked at 2.1% annually. (Source: Wikipedia)

  1962-1968

• Global total fertility rate was 5.3. (Source: Summary, Wikipedia)

  1963

• Global growth rate in absolute numbers peaked at 92.8 million. (Source: Wikipedia)

  1990

• Deaths exceeded births in the European Union. (Source: Web Search Results)

  2012

• Proportion of Americans over 65 stood at nearly 17% of the population. (Source: Web Search Results)

  2021

• European Union, Japan, and South Korea recorded natural population decline. (Source: Web Search Results)

  2022

• Global population growth rate slowed to 0.9% annually. (Source: Summary, Wikipedia)

  2023

• Global total fertility rate fell to 2.2. (Source: Summary, Wikipedia)

  2023

• Global growth rate in absolute numbers slowed to 70.4 million. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2023

• Japan's population declining at 0.5% per year. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2023

• China's population declining at about 0.2% per year. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2023

• Europe's population projected to be declining at 0.3% per year. (Source: Summary, Wikipedia)

  By 2050

• United States population will most likely begin to decline. (Source: Web Search Results)

  By 2080

• Proportion of Americans over 65 predicted to rise to over 29%. (Source: Web Search Results)

  By 2100

• Global human population growth rate will reach zero. (Source: Wikipedia)

  Before the end of the 21st century

Population decline

Population decline, also known as depopulation, is a reduction in a human population size. Throughout history, Earth's total human population has continued to grow, but projections suggest this long-term trend may be coming to an end. From antiquity until the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the global population grew very slowly, at about 0.04% per year. After about 1800 the growth rate accelerated to a peak of 2.1% annually during the 1962–1968 period, but since then, due to the worldwide collapse of the total fertility rate, it has slowed to 0.9% as of 2023. The global growth rate in absolute numbers accelerated to a peak of 92.8 million in 1990, but has since slowed to 70.4 million in 2023. Long-term projections indicate that the growth rate of the human population of the planet will continue to slow and that before the end of the 21st century, it will reach zero. Examples of this emerging trend are Japan, whose population is currently (2023) declining at the rate of 0.5% per year, and China, whose population has peaked and is currently (2023) declining at the rate of about 0.2% per year. By 2050, Europe's population is projected to be declining at the rate of 0.3% per year. Population growth has declined mainly due to the abrupt decline in the global total fertility rate, from 5.3 in 1963 to 2.2 in 2023. The decline in the total fertility rate has occurred in every region of the world and is a result of a process known as demographic transition. To maintain its population, ignoring migration, a country on average requires a minimum fertility rate of 2.2 children per woman of childbearing age (the number is slightly greater than two because not all children live to adulthood). However, most societies experience a drop in fertility to well below two as they grow wealthier. The tendency of women in wealthier countries to have fewer children is attributed to a variety of reasons, such as lower infant mortality and a reduced need for children as a source of family labor or retirement welfare, both of which reduce the incentive to have many children. Better access to education for young women, which broadens their job prospects, is also often cited. Possible consequences of long-term national population decline can be net negative or positive. If a country can increase its workforce productivity faster than its population is declining, the results, in terms of its economy, the quality of life of its citizens, and the environment, can be net positive. If it cannot increase workforce productivity faster than its population's decline, the results can be negative. National efforts to confront a declining population to date have been focused on the possible negative economic consequences and have been centered on increasing the size and productivity of the workforce.

Web Search Results

• Anticipated U.S. Population Decline and the Risks Ahead - Bradley

  U.S. Census Bureau projections from November reveal a startling prospect: The United States population will most likely begin to decline by 2080, spelling out substantial risks for economic and social stability in the coming decades. Population growth is critical for maintaining a strong economy and preserving social safety net programs, yet in many parts of the U.S., the rising cost of living along with stagnating wages are causing more and more young people to rethink their goals of starting [...] The most immediately evident consequence of population decline is the increase of the elderly population relative to the working age population, which will place greater pressure on public services due to more people relying on them while less people are working to help finance them. The proportion of Americans over the age of 65 stood at nearly 17% of the population in 2021, compared to 9% in 1960, and the Census Bureau predicts that by 2100, the number will rise to over 29%. Meanwhile, low [...] The factors leading to the U.S. population slowdown are like those facing most developed economies today, such as the European Union, Japan, and South Korea, which all recorded natural population decline in 2022. Over the past several decades, young Americans have increasingly seen prices for housing, groceries, and other essential expenditures outpace their salaries, leaving them less disposable income to save. At the same time, having kids is getting more expensive by the year; research from

• Population Decline Will Change the World for the Better

  But there’s more to the story than dollars. Where our current model of endless growth and short-term profits sacrifices vulnerable people and the planet’s future, population decline could help create a future with more opportunity and a healthy, biologically rich world. We’re at a crossroads—and we decide what happens next. We can maintain the economic status quo and continue to pursue infinite growth on a finite planet. Or we can heed the warning signs of a planet pushed to its limits, put the [...] In places where these cultural changes have happened, there’s no going back. Even in China, where fertility was initially reduced by the draconian one-child policy, women don’t want to give up their educational and economic freedom now that larger families are allowed. Population decline is only a threat to an economy based on growth. Shifting to a model based on degrowth and equity alongside lower fertility rates will help fight climate change and increase wealth and well-being. [...] Declining populations will ease the pressure eight billion people put on the planet. As the population and sustainability director at the Center for Biological Diversity, I’ve seen the devastating effects of our ever-expanding footprint on global ecosystems. But if you listen to economists (and Elon Musk), you might believe falling birthrates mean the sky is falling as fewer babies means fewer workers and consumers driving economic growth.

• Shrinking Population: Why It Matters - Rural Insights

  Reply 20. Birmingham Therapist on March 28, 2025 at 4:47 pm The UP’s experience mirrors broader trends observed in other areas confronting population decline. For instance, in Japan, a declining population has led to concerns about economic stagnation and increased pressure on social welfare systems. Similarly, parts of Eastern Europe have experienced labor shortages and economic contraction due to significant population decreases [...] The article’s author visited the city of Cairo, Illinois and surrounding Alexander County to illustrate the social and economic challenges confronting parts of America undergoing population decline. In Cairo’s case its population topped out in the 1920s at around 15,000, today its down to 1,700; while Alexander’s population is just 18 percent of its 1940s peak of 25,500. [...] I’d say your negative impact of population decline is way over blown. The population of the UP has been declining for a century with none of the above occurring. As for pensions: the bulk of workers today with a pension program are teachers & government workers, everyone else has gone to a 401k program. Even those areas with population growth have pension problems (see Marquette). Business numbers do decline with fewer people but a likely bigger reason for fewer businesses is the advent of

• Population decline: where demography, social science, and biology ...

  There are some countries where this has already happened. Publicly available databases such as World Bank Open Data (2024) indicate that the Chinese population is already starting to decline, and Japan is losing around 0.5 million inhabitants a year. Particularly badly affected are a group of ex-communist states in Central Europe (e.g. Belarus, Georgia, Bulgaria, Hungary, Ukraine, Moldova), several countries in the Balkans (Albania, Serbia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Croatia), and the Baltic States [...] Once the replacement TFR threshold has been crossed, we might expect to see a sudden decline in overall population numbers. However, this does not occur immediately for two major reasons: (i) the improved healthcare provided by modern industrialized societies have generated an increase in life span, so total population numbers turn over less rapidly; and (ii) the impact of _population momentum_. The latter essentially defines the means by which populations can continue to grow even though their [...] , cultural individualism, postponed marriage and parenthood, a disconnection between marriage and procreation, high rates of divorce, more co-habitation, frequent contraceptive use, a rising incidence of voluntary childlessness, disengagement from civic and community-orientated networks, denial of authority, greater gender equity, increased female economic autonomy, fluid life course arrangements and a shifted age structure in favour of the elderly (Lesthaeghe 2014) – all features of modern

• Global Population Growth Is Slowing Down | CFR Education

  As fertility rates have declined, migration has become a more significant influence on population. For instance, in the European Union (EU) as a whole—where deaths have exceeded births since 2012––population growth has been fueled entirely by immigration. Still, in some EU countries like Bulgaria, where the population has fallen by 11 percent the past decade, population size is in decline due to low birth rates and emigration. [...] In the coming decades, many more countries will likely face challenges related to declining fertility rates and aging populations.. Studies differ about the exact timeline, but most scholars think the population will peak in the late twenty-first century before declining. However, every country is on a different path, and many are experiencing population-related harm to their economies, social security programs, and geopolitical influence now. The changing shape of a population can have