Urban Doom Spiral

Extracted Attributes

• Definition

  A negative economic spiral that results from increasing remote work, leading urban businesses to close and to a loss of tax revenue, which then leads cities to cut services and raise taxes.

• Concept Type

  Economic Cycle

• Consequences

  Economic downturn, cuts to city services, tax increases, societal decay (poverty, crime, lost value, relocation of people and businesses)

• Primary Cause

  Increased remote work

• Origin of Term

  Coined by a Columbia University professor

• Related Concepts

  Doom loop (general), Economic doom loop (banks/sovereign bonds), Climate doom loop

• Secondary Causes

  Business closures, loss of tax revenue, decreased city services, increased taxes, residents fleeing to suburbs, over-reliance on office market (for downtowns)

• Current Status (2023-2024)

  Many cities appear to be recovering post-COVID; the decline has mainly taken place in downtown 'WalkUPs' due to the office market decline, often considered an 'episodic doom loop' rather than a 'structural' one.

Timeline

• The COVID-19 pandemic accelerates the trend of remote work, leading to discussions and concerns about the 'urban doom loop' as office workers leave downtowns. (Source: Web Search (The Atlantic))

  2020-03-01

• Tufts Now publishes an article discussing the 'Urban Doom Loop' and how cities can stop it, noting a Columbia University professor coined the term. (Source: Web Search (Tufts Now))

  2023-08-16

• The Atlantic publishes an article titled 'Whatever Happened to the Urban Doom Loop?', suggesting that while the threat was significant, many 'superstar cities' have so far avoided the worst-case scenario. (Source: Web Search (The Atlantic))

  2024-03-01

• The concept of the Urban Doom Spiral is discussed in the All-In podcast as a potential factor contributing to the rise of democratic socialism, exemplified by Zoran Mamdani's victory in New York's mayoral primary, alongside student loan debt and failures of the Democratic Party establishment. (Source: Document 916f3392-52d1-41a3-9336-492ebf4e47a1)

  YYYY-MM-DD

Doom loop

A doom loop may be: In economics, a doom loop is a negative spiral that can result when banks hold sovereign bonds and governments bail out banks. An urban doom loop is a negative economic spiral that results from increasing remote work, leading urban businesses to close and to a loss of tax revenue, which then leads cities to cut services and raise taxes. A climate doom loop occurs when consequences of climate change and the failure to address it draw focus and resources from tackling its root causes.

Web Search Results

• Doom loop - Wikipedia

  An urban doom loop is a negative economic spiral that results from increasing remote work, leading urban businesses to close and to a loss of tax revenue, which then leads cities to cut services and raise taxes .

• Urban Doom Loop: What It Is and How Cities Can Stop It | Tufts Now

  Recent images of downtown San Francisco—emptied of office workers now dialing in remote and filled with wandering homeless people—have struck fear for the future of urban areas. A Columbia University professor coined the term “urban doom loop” for the downward spiral some cites seem to be on, as workers don’t return, retail businesses shutter for lack of customers, residents flee to the suburbs, and city tax revenues decline, leading to fewer services, and then fewer residents. [...] While I don’t see ongoing events being that dramatic—many cities appear to be recovering post-COVID—the definition of the urban doom loop presumes that as more residents leave the city and less development occurs, the revenue stream—the property tax—diminishes, often rapidly. The doom is the loss of revenue, and the loop is the vicious cycle that becomes difficult to stop. [...] Putting aside many urban planning stereotypes that cities are good and suburbs are sterile and bad, if commuters trying to get to work in the city can’t reasonably do so, at some point they will stop trying. That is the real urban doom loop. “Putting aside many urban planning stereotypes that cities are good and suburbs are sterile and bad, if commuters trying to get to work in the city can’t reasonably do so, at some point they will stop trying. That is the real urban doom loop.”

• How to reverse the 'urban doom loop' | CNU

  “The bottom line is that many of these WalkUPs are in an urban doom loop, a downward spiral, of lower office occupancy driving lower rents, lower valuation and lower property taxes, decreased services, increased crime, etc. The reason for the doom loop is that these WalkUPs violated portfolio theory,” he explains. [...] The “doom loop” in the title may be overly dramatic. This decline has mainly taken place in downtown WalkUPs, and this is mostly due to the decline in the office market. The report distinguishes between a “structural doom loop,” such as the one that gripped cities from the 1950s through the 1980s, and an “episodic doom loop” caused by disasters, public health crises, and political and civil unrest. The one we are in now is episodic, they claim. [...] The “doom loop” results from WalkUPs putting “too many eggs in the office basket.” Using portfolio theory to rebalance real estate toward less office space (work), more play (culture, entertainment, retail), and more residential (especially for-sale housing) would shift these urban centers back to the positive economic track they were on prior to COVID, the report concludes.

• Dodging the Urban Doom Loop - Art of Procurement

  If the phrase doom loop sounds familiar, it may be because you’ve heard it used to describe the negative cycle at play in some of America’s largest cities. While the flywheel effect produces growth and profitability, the doom loop creates a downward spiral of societal decay: poverty, crime, lost value, and finally the relocation of people and businesses. [...] You can feel the doom loop forming. Workers leave, then stores close, so riders don’t take the BART, and people with lifestyle challenges move in to take over the area… So more workers leave, more stores close, and even less people are on the subway. Around and around. #### #### Not a Shrinking Problem It is certainly challenging for cities like San Francisco that people and companies are leaving, and some businesses are being hurt directly through theft. [...] Fewer people talk about the flywheel effect’s evil cousin: the doom loop. This cycle of knee-jerk decisions and failed strategies has taken down many otherwise promising businesses. Collins characterizes it as “reaction without understanding.”

• Whatever Happened to the Urban Doom Loop? - The Atlantic

  people would move away; and so on, in an endless spiral that would do to superstar cities what the decline of the auto industry did to Detroit. [...] The pandemic was supposed to be the death of the great American city. The rise of remote work unleashed an exodus to the Sun Belt and suburbs, leaving behind empty subway cars, abandoned offices, and desolate downtowns. Violent crime spiked. Suddenly, so-called superstar cities—such as New York, Boston, and Los Angeles, which boomed throughout the 2010s—were facing what experts called an “urban doom loop.” The more people moved away, the worse things would get; the worse things got, the more [...] ## Site Navigation ## Sections games promo icon ## The Print Edition Audio Crossword Puzzle Magazine Archive Your Subscription # Whatever Happened to the Urban Doom Loop? America’s superstar cities have avoided the post-pandemic death spiral—so far, anyway. A collage of city buildings A collage of city buildings Listen to more stories on the Noa app.