US vs China AI competition

Extracted Attributes

• US Policy

  White House AI Action Plan (deregulatory)

• China Policy

  AI plan proposing global consensus-building organization

• China Work Culture

  996 work culture (intense work schedule)

• US Strategic Approach

  Integration of AI into national security systems

• Key Area of Competition

  Military applications of AI

• China Strategic Approach

  Incentivized domestic innovation due to export controls

• US Competitive Advantage

  Substantial compute capacity and advanced AI chips

• AGI Prediction (Eric Schmidt)

  6-7 years away

Timeline

• The AI boom started. (Source: wikipedia)

  2010s (late)

• The AI boom gained international prominence. (Source: wikipedia)

  2020s

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) breached US export restrictions by producing advanced AI chips for Huawei. (Source: web_search_results)

  2024-09

• ChatGPT became the 5th most visited website globally. (Source: wikipedia)

  2025

• China is likely to match U.S. AI model capabilities. (Source: web_search_results)

  2025 (predicted)

• China declared its intention to become the global leader in AI. (Source: web_search_results)

  2030 (target)

• AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is predicted to be achieved by Eric Schmidt. (Source: related_documents)

  6-7 years from now (prediction)

AI boom

The AI boom is an ongoing period of technological progress in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) that started in the late 2010s before gaining international prominence in the 2020s. Examples include generative AI technologies, such as large language models and AI image generators by companies like OpenAI, as well as scientific advances, such as protein folding prediction led by Google DeepMind. This period is sometimes referred to as an AI spring, to contrast it with previous AI winters. As of 2025, ChatGPT is the 5th most visited website globally behind Google, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.

Web Search Results

• US-China AI Competition in the Spotlight

  Both the United States and China are pursuing national policies to promote the development of artificial intelligence (AI). In the United States, the White House’s recently announced AI Action Plan features a deregulatory approach to drive innovation and build an AI infrastructure that could be exported overseas. The Chinese government’s AI plan instead proposes a global consensus-building organization that would seek a balance between AI development and security. [...] The competition between these contrasting approaches may be expected to have major implications for the adoption of AI around the world and, thus, for the future of the global economy. A consistent deregulatory emphasis might be a winning American strategy. Read the full piece here. Related Publications ## Related Publications Telecommunications ### Foreign Trade Barriers Threaten American Space Dominance TOTM Satya Marar Antitrust [...] Skip to the content US-China AI Competition in the Spotlight About the Author(s) Alden Abbott Alden Abbott is a senior research fellow with the Mercatus Center and a former general counsel of the Federal Trade Commission. Related Research Programs Innovation Related Topics AI Industrial Policy Innovation International Trade TOTM # US-China AI Competition in the Spotlight Alden Abbott August 6, 2025 Truth on the Market View Original Source Back to Top

• Understanding the AI Competition with China

  Aaron Burciaga: The U.S.-China race for AI dominance is a dead heat, with no other global players—neither the UK nor Russia—coming close to matching their pace. If I had to pick a leader, I’d give the U.S. a slight edge, driven by our unmatched innovation in frontier AI models, defense tech, and integration of AI into national security systems. That’s what keeps us ahead, but it’s a razor-thin margin. [...] The development and adoption of artificial intelligence is poised to revolutionize the commercial and military worlds, making it a key focus of the technological competition between the United States and China. While the United States is generally understood to have a lead in AI development, in part due to its access and control over the highest-end semiconductors used to train larger language models, China has declared its intention to become the global leader in AI by 2030. Indeed, the [...] The U.S. holds a slight edge thanks to our leadership in frontier AI innovation and defense technology, our ability to produce cutting edge models, and to integrate AI and defense networks—that’s what keeps us in the driver’s seat. China’s closing the gap fast. Their cost-effective AI models, massive data reserves, and swift military applications make them a serious threat. More critically, China’s outpacing us in building the backbone for AI—state-driven programs pumping out talent and

• The U.S.-China AI Race: Where do both countries stand? - NCUSCR

  I think there are two main points to highlight here. One of the main public perceptions is that AI has become a central front of great power competition between the US and China. And I do think there’s a lot of historical precedent for this. Historically, the rise and fall of great powers has generally proceeded from a period of significant technological change, which then creates an opportunity for one great power to sustain economic growth at higher levels than its rivals. And then [...] Skip to Content Skip to Footer Artificial intelligence (AI) technology has the potential to revolutionize the way the world works and communicates. AI also plays an outsized role in technological competition between the United States and China, in what some call the “AI race.” What is China’s current stage in the AI race as compared to the United States, and what challenges and risks lie ahead in adopting AI technology? About the speaker ## Transcript [...] So, in terms of China’s current stage, in this competition over AI, and remember from the first question, I emphasize how the core stage are a core step in terms of great power competition in these emerging technologies is how they affect each country’s ability to sustain economic growth. And so, where China sits in terms of being able to leverage AI, to improve productivity across the entire economy, because that’s what’s so incredible about these general-purpose technologies like AI, and

• China's AI Models Are Closing the Gap—but America's Real ... - RAND

  Central to the U.S.-China AI competition are U.S. export controls that restrict China from importing advanced AI chips, acquiring semiconductor manufacturing equipment to build indigenous advanced AI chips, and using leading chip manufacturers such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). Despite these measures, a massive failure occurred in September 2024: TSMC, lacking basic due diligence, breached export restrictions by producing advanced AI chips for Huawei through a Chinese [...] China will likely match U.S. AI model capabilities this year, triggering inevitable concerns about America's technological edge. However, this snapshot comparison misses the bigger picture. While Chinese models close the gap on benchmarks, the United States maintains an advantage in total compute capacity—owning far more, and more advanced, AI chips. This compute advantage, if leveraged strategically, will play an extraordinary role in driving economic transformation, securing technological [...] prevent temporary model parity, the U.S. strategy should leverage its substantial compute advantage to transform the broader economy and establish leadership in AI deployment worldwide. China may achieve competitive individual AI models this year, but this narrow benchmark gap is neither permanent nor strategically decisive. China will continue to tout breakthroughs to rattle U.S. confidence, but getting distracted and abandoning America's fundamental compute advantage would be a profound

• How will AI influence US-China relations in the next 5 years?

  Back to top Patricia M. Kim ## Rogue actors are the real AI wild card AI is the new front line in great power competition. The United States and China are locked in a high-stakes race to harness AI for economic, military, and strategic advantage. The implications are profound, and the AI race between the two great powers rightly commands attention. [...] Over the next five years, the U.S.-China AI relationship will be shaped by tensions between strategic competition and the potential for collaboration. While controls may slow China’s access to frontier technologies, they can also incentivize domestic innovation. China’s gains in efficiency show that progress can come from constraint. [...] The often-repeated recommendation that the United States and China cooperate on AI seems to now be far out of reach. Vice President JD Vance has explicitly called competition on AI with China an “arms race” and the Trump administration has repeatedly threatened U.S. tech companies with tariffs to get them to relocate supply chains from China to American soil. But for the United States to remain competitive, it must rely on the innovation of the private sector, which despite the fragmented