Old defense and aerospace providers
A sector, including companies like Boeing and Lockheed Martin, predicted to be a business loser in 2025 due to being bureaucratic, reliant on outdated Cost-Plus models, and challenged by more agile, tech-oriented firms as US defense budgets shift.
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7/26/2025, 5:37:16 AM
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7/26/2025, 6:02:24 AM
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7/26/2025, 6:02:24 AM
Summary
Old defense and aerospace providers are a sector facing significant challenges and disruption, particularly in 2025, as predicted by Gavin Baker of Atreides Management. Their traditional business models are being undermined by shifts in US government spending, including a move towards austerity championed by Fiscal Conservatives, and by rapid advancements in autonomous hardware, robotics, and technologies like Full Self-Driving (FSD). While companies like Tesla and Google are poised to benefit from these technological shifts, traditional defense and aerospace firms are anticipated to struggle, similar to how the industry underwent major consolidation and funding cuts after the Cold War.
Referenced in 1 Document
Research Data
Extracted Attributes
Category
Defense and Aerospace Industry
Business Model
Traditional, challenged by new technologies
Key Products/Services
Military/civilian aircraft, ships, vehicles, weaponry, electronic systems, logistics, technical support, training, communications, engineering support
Status (2025 Prediction)
Anticipated to struggle
Historical Impact of 9/11
Accelerated need for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance equipment, increased US defense spending
Historical Impact of Cold War End
Slashed funding for defense procurement, cyclical downturn in civil airliners, massive industry consolidation
Timeline
- The United States Congress slashed funding for defense procurement following the record federal deficit during the 1980s and the end of the Cold War. (Source: Web Search Results)
1992-XX-XX
- The demand for civil airliners underwent a cyclical downturn, impacting the aerospace industry. (Source: Web Search Results)
1994-XX-XX
- Aerospace firms engaged in feverish divestment and mergers, seeking consolidation partners. (Source: Web Search Results)
1995-XX-XX
- Aerospace firms continued feverish divestment and mergers, seeking consolidation partners. (Source: Web Search Results)
1996-XX-XX
- The K9 series, developed by some defense providers, began its period of market dominance, eventually holding a 52% share of the global self-propelled howitzer market by 2022. (Source: Wikipedia)
2000-XX-XX
- The events of September 11, 2001, had a dramatic effect on the U.S. defense industry, accelerating the need for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance equipment and leading to a steady increase in defense spending. (Source: Web Search Results)
2001-09-11
- The K9 series, developed by some defense providers, held a 52% share of the global self-propelled howitzer market since the year 2000. (Source: Wikipedia)
2022-XX-XX
- Predicted to be 'losers' in the business world due to shifts in US government spending and disruption by autonomous hardware and robotics, as per Gavin Baker's predictions on the All-In Podcast. (Source: Related Documents)
2025-XX-XX
Wikipedia
View on WikipediaK9 Thunder
The K9 Thunder is a South Korean 155 mm self-propelled howitzer designed and developed by the Agency for Defense Development and private corporations including Dongmyeong Heavy Industries, Kia Heavy Industry, Poongsan Corporation, and Samsung Aerospace Industries for the Republic of Korea Armed Forces, and is now manufactured by Hanwha Aerospace. K9 howitzers operate in groups with the K10 ammunition resupply vehicle variant. The entire K9 fleet operated by the ROK Armed Forces is now undergoing upgrades to K9A1, and a further upgrade variant K9A2 is being tested for production. As of 2022, the K9 series has had a 52% share of the global self-propelled howitzer market, including wheeled vehicles, since the year 2000.
Web Search Results
- List of defense contractors - Wikipedia
A defense contractor is a business organization or individual that provides products "Product (business)") or services "Service (economics)") to a military or intelligence department of a government. Products typically include military or civilian aircraft, ships, vehicles, weaponry, and electronic systems, while services can include logistics, technical support and training, communications support, and engineering support in cooperation with the government. [...] | Rank | Country | Company name | Revenue from defense (US$ billions) | Total revenue (US$ billions) | % of total revenue from defense | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | United States | Lockheed Martin | 59.390 | 65.984 | 90 | | 2 | United States | RTX Corporation | 39.570 | 67.074 | 59 | | 3 | United Kingdom | BAE Systems | 33.250 | 33.700 | 97 | | 4 | United States | Northrop Grumman | 32.300 | 36.602 | 88 | | 5 | United States | Boeing | 29.300 | 66.608 | 44 | [...] | 13 | Italy | Leonardo "Leonardo (company)") | 12.470 | 15.025 | 83 | | 14 | EU | Airbus | 12.090 | 61.805 | 20 | | 15 | China | China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation | 11.770 | 37.364 | 32 | | 16 | China | China State Shipbuilding Corporation | 10.440 | 51.443 | 20 | | 17 | France | Thales Group | 9.420 | 18.479 | 51 | | 18 | United States | Huntington Ingalls Industries | 8.750 | 10.676 | 82 | | 19 | United States | Leidos | 8.240 | 14.287 | 58 |
- Company | History - Curtiss-Wright Corporation
In addition, the events of September 11, 2001, had a dramatic effect on the U.S. defense industry that accelerated the need for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance equipment and led to a steady increase in defense spending. Curtiss-Wright supported our armed forces through the development of advanced technology and proprietary products serving the naval, aerospace and ground defense markets. [...] Today, Curtiss-Wright is a global, integrated market-facing business that remains a technology leader through this legacy of innovation. We maintain an extensive offering of critical products and services that were either developed internally or joined through strategic acquisitions. Our structure drives the focus upon our diversified end markets through three well-balanced segments – Aerospace & Industrial, Defense Electronics and Naval & Power – where we remain focused on advanced [...] hydraulic and electro-mechanical control and actuation systems for aerospace and defense applications.
- The History of the Aerospace Industry – EH.net
to have longer lives with more frequent remanufacturing. To get more diverse types of engineering talent involved in design, the Defense Department insisted that airframe firms — former competitors — team to win aircraft contracts. Key members in these teams were avionics firms, as airframes became little more than platforms to take electronic equipment aloft. Fewer contracts meant that Congress, voicing concern over the defense industrial base, made more procurement decisions than experts in [...] When the Cold War ended, the aerospace industry changed dramatically. After the record run up in the federal deficit during the 1980s, by 1992 the United States Congress demanded a peace dividend and slashed funding for defense procurement. By 1994, the demand for civil airliners also underwent a cyclical downturn. Aerospace-dependent regions — notably Los Angeles and Seattle — suffered recession then rebuilt their economies around different industries. Aerospace employed 1.3 million Americans [...] Rather than diversify or shed capacity haphazardly, aerospace firms focused. They divested or merged feverishly in 1995 and 1996, hoping to find the best consolidation partners before the federal government feared that competition would suffer. GE sold its aerospace division to Martin Marietta, which then sold itself to Lockheed. Boeing bought the aerospace units of Rockwell International, and then acquired McDonnell Douglas. Northrop bought Grumman. Lockheed Martin and Boeing both ended up
- Who's Your Ally? Part 3: Meet the Primes – The origins of the U.S. ...
The Primes, or the top contractors of the US Federal Government, include: 1. Lockheed Martin 2. Boeing 3. General Dynamics 4. Raytheon 5. Northrop Grumman [...] Following the collapse of the Soviet Union and, symbolically, the end of the Cold War, the United States and its defense contractors entered the Third Era. Massive consolidation of contractors, and a shift to focusing on civilian pursuits, counter-intuitively bred a sedentary period. Large firms, somewhat lethargic without existential threats to the nation or – nearly as important in some folks’ views – to the firms’ themselves, continued building a federal contracting system that oft favored [...] Image 7 _The top five United States prime contractors are Lockheed Martin, Boeing, General Dynamics, Raytheon, and Northrop Grumman. For a sense of scale, I have noted MIT’s location as the #60 prime contractor, which is largely allocated to the Lincoln Laboratory, with its $1Bn USD obligated from the US federal government. However, when people refer to “The Primes”, it’s usually the top five to ten contractors, who account for twenty to thirty percent of federal dollar obligations._
- Defense Primer: Department of Defense Contractors - Congress.gov
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