US Recession
A significant economic downturn, typically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The podcast discusses the growing odds of a US recession, citing poor job reports, rising unemployment, and weakening consumer demand.
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8/26/2025, 6:14:04 AM
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8/26/2025, 6:15:20 AM
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8/26/2025, 6:15:19 AM
Summary
The United States is currently facing increasing odds of a recession, with some theories suggesting a "low-key recession" is already underway, masked by high government spending. Key indicators include weak non-farm payrolls and warnings from consumer-facing companies like Airbnb. This economic uncertainty, coupled with the risk of black swan events and the fragility of the global financial system (exemplified by the unraveling of the Yen Carry Trade), is leading to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Historically, the U.S. has experienced numerous recessions, with varying causes and durations, dating back to the Articles of Confederation.
Referenced in 1 Document
Research Data
Extracted Attributes
Current Status
Odds of a recession are growing
Key Indicators
Weak Non-farm Payrolls, warnings from consumer-facing companies (e.g., Airbnb)
Proposed Theory
Low-key recession (Chamath Palihapitiya)
Historical Frequency
As many as 48 recessions since the Articles of Confederation
Historical Volatility
Greater before the Great Depression than after WWII
Masking Factor (Low-key Recession)
High Government Spending
Timeline
- Early 2000s recession begins, lasting 8 months. (Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States)
2001-03-01
- Early 2000s recession ends. (Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States)
2001-11-30
- Recession from August 1957 to April 1958 begins. GDP fell 4.1% in Q4 1957 and 10.0% in Q1 1958. Unemployment peaked at 7.5% in July 1958. (Source: https://www.thebalancemoney.com/the-history-of-recessions-in-the-united-states-3306011)
1957-08-01
- Recession from August 1957 to April 1958 ends. (Source: https://www.thebalancemoney.com/the-history-of-recessions-in-the-united-states-3306011)
1958-04-30
- Recession from December 1969 to November 1970 begins. Unemployment peaked at 6.1% in December 1970. Economy contracted by 1.9% in Q4 1969 and 0.6% in Q1 1970. (Source: https://www.thebalancemoney.com/the-history-of-recessions-in-the-united-states-3306011)
1969-12-01
- Recession from December 1969 to November 1970 ends. (Source: https://www.thebalancemoney.com/the-history-of-recessions-in-the-united-states-3306011)
1970-11-30
- Discussion of the 2020 Recession. (Source: https://www.thebalancemoney.com/the-history-of-recessions-in-the-united-states-3306011)
2020-01-01
- Current period where odds of a US Recession are growing, evidenced by weak non-farm payrolls and warnings from consumer-facing companies. (Source: Document 6f09ea2d-8820-4118-bec1-b3e6e76d385c)
2024-01-01
Web Search Results
- List of recessions in the United States - Wikipedia
There have been as many as 48 recessions in the United States dating back to the Articles of Confederation, and although economists and historians dispute certain 19th-century recessions, the consensus view among economists and historians is that "the [cyclical] volatility of GNP and unemployment was greater before the Great Depression than it has been since the end of World War II." Cycles in the country's agricultural production, industrial production, consumption, business investment, and the health of the banking industry contribute to these declines. | Early 2000s recession | March 2001 – November 2001 | 8 months | 10 years | 6.3% (June 2003) | −0.3% | The 1990s were the longest period of economic growth in American history up to that point.
- Recession Watch 2025 - UCLA Anderson School of Management
* Faculty & Research Home * Alumni Home * UCLA Anderson Forecast Home 1. Home 4. UCLA Anderson Forecast Home * Financing Your MBA Home * Admissions Home * Overview * Accounting Minor Program Home * Riordan Programs Home * Riordan MBA Fellows Program Overview * Riordan College to Career Program Overview * Who We Are Overview * Venture Accelerator at UCLA Anderson Home * Faculty and Research Home * Finance Home * Global Economics and Management Home * Information Systems Research Program Home * Applied Management Research Program Home * Global Access Program Home * Alumni Home * Events Overview
- U.S. Recessions Throughout History: Causes and Effects
* **Reasons and Causes**: The end of the Korean War unleashed a global investment boom marked by a surge in exports of U.S. capital goods.22 The Fed responded by tightening monetary policy as the inflation rate rose from 0.4% in March 1956 to 3.7% a year later.21 19 Fiscal policy focused on limiting budget deficits produced a surplus of 0.7% of GDP in 1957.21 The 1957 Asian Flu pandemic killed 70,000 to 100,000 Americans in 1957, and industrial production slumped late that year and early in 1958.23 The dramatic drop in domestic demand and evolving consumer expectations led to the failure of the Ford Edsel, the beginning of the end for Detroit's auto industry dominance.24 The sharp worldwide recession contributed to a foreign trade deficit.
- The History of U.S. Recessions: 1797-2020 | SoFi
The History of U.S. Recessions: 1797-2020 | SoFi Other major factors in this 1970s recession included a stock market crash that caused a bear market from 1973 to 1974, and several monetary moves made by President Richard Nixon, including implementing wage-price controls and ending the gold standard in the U.S. The result was “stagflation,” a slowing economy with high unemployment and high inflation. SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below: Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms. The average of SoFi Personal Loans funded in 2023 was around $33K. SoFi Personal Loans originated by SoFi Bank, N.A. Member FDIC.
- History of Recessions in the United States - The Balance Money
This recession took place from August 1957 to April 1958.14 GDP fell 4.1% in the fourth quarter of 1957, then it contracted to a low of 10.0% in the first quarter of 1958.20 Unemployment didn't reach its peak of 7.5% until July 1958.21 The Fed's contractionary monetary policy caused this economic slowdown.22 This recession was relatively mild, lasting 11 months from December 1969 to November 1970.14 Unemployment peaked at 6.1% in December 1970.26 The economy contracted by 1.9% in the fourth quarter of 1969 and by 0.6% in the first quarter of 1970. ### 2020 Recession * What Is a Recession? * The 2001 Recession
Location Data
Recession Stand, New Jersey Turnpike, Mickleton, East Greenwich Township, Gloucester County, New Jersey, 08056, United States
Coordinates: 39.7761724, -75.2432829
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