K-12 Education Decline

Teacher Morale

All-time low

Nature of Decline

Students entering college academically and socially unprepared

Teacher Shortages

Widespread, reaching crisis levels with over 400,000 classrooms lacking a certified educator

Chronic Absenteeism

Rising

Student Performance

Declining test scores, reading and math scores at lowest levels in decades

Impact on Communities

Most severe in low-income districts due to limited staffing and uneven access to quality instruction

Overall Enrollment Trend

Declining, projected to continue

8th Grade Math Proficiency (NAEP)

28%

Teacher Recommendation of Profession

Only 16% would recommend the profession to others

Federal K-12 Funding (Inflation-adjusted)

Slightly declined over the past 20 years, peaking only during the Great Recession (2009) and COVID-19 pandemic (2021)

High School Enrollment Trend (Fall 2019-2023)

Increased slightly (2%, approximately 345,000 students)

States Projected to Lose Enrollment (by 2030)

23 states projected to lose at least 5%

Sixth Grade Enrollment Decline (Fall 2019-2023)

7% (largest single grade drop)

Kindergarten Enrollment Decline (Fall 2019-2023)

215,000 students (nearly 6%)

Black Student Enrollment Decline (Fall 2019-2023)

Approximately 250,000 students (3%)

Teacher Retention (Likely to stay in field, 2023)

77% (down from 86% in 2022)

White Student Enrollment Decline (Fall 2019-2023)

Nearly 2 million students (8%)

Projected National Enrollment Decline (by FY 2032)

5.3% (to 46.9 million students from 2024)

Projected Largest Student Loss (California by 2030)

500,000 students (8%)

Middle School (6-8) Enrollment Decline (Fall 2019-2023)

Approximately 700,000 students (6%)

White Student Enrollment Decline (from 2014 to Fall 2023)

13%

Elementary Grades (K-5) Enrollment Decline (Fall 2019-2023)

Approximately 865,000 students (4%)

Projected Steepest Proportional Decline (West Virginia by 2030)

18% (45,000 students)

2009

2012-2020

2014

2019-09-01

2019-09-01_2023-09-01

2021

2022

2023-09-01

2023-09-01_2024-09-01

2030

The sharpest declines have come among the youngest students. Between fall 2019 and 2023, kindergarten enrollment alone fell by 215,000 students—nearly 6 percent. Elementary grades (K–5) overall lost about 865,000 students (4 percent), while middle school enrollment (grades 6–8) declined by nearly 700,000 students (6 percent). Sixth grade saw the largest drop of any single grade, declining by 7 percent. High school enrollment, by contrast, increased slightly, rising 2 percent, or roughly 345,000 [...] And 23 states are projected to lose at least another 5 percent of their enrollment by 2030, with West Virginia expected to see the steepest proportional decline at 18 percent (45,000 students) and California projected to lose the most students at 500,000 (8 percent). [...] A Flourish chart The trends also vary by race and ethnicity. White students account for the largest share of the overall decline. Between fall 2019 and 2023, public schools lost nearly 2 million white students—an 8 percent drop. Black student enrollment fell by about 250,000 students, or 3 percent. These declines predated the pandemic but accelerated after it. As of fall 2023, white student enrollment is down 13 percent from its 2014 level.

To provide a future-ready education to K-12 students, the U.S. school finance system requires transformation. This includes increasing federal resources in K-12 education, which has slightly declined over the past 20 years when adjusted for inflation, peaking only during the aftermath of the Great Recession in 2009 and during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021.104 States should adopt per-pupil student-weighted funding models that prioritize the specific needs of students, including but not be [...] Teacher perceptions of the field also remain at an all-time low.4 A new report found that nearly 77 percent of teachers say they are likely to stay in the field—a decrease from 86 percent in 2022.5 Moreover, only 16 percent of teachers expressed that they would recommend the profession to others.6 These challenges can be met and overcome if policymakers enhance educators’ compensation, development, and retention; rethink school staffing structures; and advance educators’ preparations by

U.S. Government Accountability Office < WatchBlog: Following the Federal Dollar Back to School—Obstacles to Educating K-12 Students Persist Declining test scores, widespread teacher shortages, and steadily increasing hostile behaviors like bullying and hate speech have all left their mark on public school students and teachers over the last few years. Many students, their families, and educators may be wondering what this new school year may bring. [...] consistently cited a widespread negative perception about the teaching profession. Teachers described feeling exploited, demoralized, and unsafe. They've observed increasingly aggressive behaviors from students and parents. Stress, fatigue, deteriorating mental health—those are all pushing current teachers to leave and dissuading others from becoming teachers. [...] Stay informed as we add new reports & testimonies.

Chart 2: Changes in each state’s public school enrollment from 2012 to 2024 ### 5. Public school enrollment declines are expected to continue for years. The National Center for Education Statistics projects that public school enrollment will decline to 46.9 million students by the 2032 fiscal year, representing a 5.3% decrease from 2024. [...] For some states, the pandemic aggravated existing declines in public school enrollment. From the 2012 to 2020 fiscal years, states like New Hampshire (-7.6% drop in enrollment), West Virginia (-6.9%), and Illinois (-6.7%) lost considerable percentages of their public school student populations. [...] The states with the largest public school enrollment declines from 2023 to 2024 included West Virginia (-1.7% enrollment decline), Arkansas (-1.7%), and Wyoming (-1.5%). Among the 11 states that increased public school enrollment in FY 2024, the states with the largest gains included New Jersey (0.6% enrollment growth), South Carolina (0.6%), and North Dakota (0.4%). ### 3. Public school enrollment was inching upward before COVID-19.