US Housing Market

Extracted Attributes

• GDP Growth (2023)

  2.9%

• GDP Growth (2024)

  2.8%

• 2000s Housing Bubble Low

  2011

• 2000s Housing Bubble Peak

  Early 2006

• GDP Growth (2025 Forecast)

  1.4%

• Housing Inventory (May 2025)

  4.6-month supply

• GDP Growth (2026-2027 Forecast)

  1.6% to 1.8%

• Median Home-Sale Price (May 2025)

  $422,800

• Government Bailout Allocation (2008)

  Over $900 billion

• Average 30-year Mortgage Rate (Early 2025)

  Above 7%

• Average 30-year Mortgage Rate (September 2024)

  6.2%

• Average 30-year Mortgage Rate (Early July 2025)

  6.78%

• Home Price Appreciation (Year-over-year, May prior year)

  5%

• Home Price Appreciation (Year-over-year, July 2025 update)

  1.4%

Timeline

• Housing prices peaked in early 2006, marking the height of the 2000s US housing bubble. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2006-01-01

• Housing prices began to decline, and increased foreclosure rates among U.S. homeowners started to emerge. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2006-01-01

• Henry Paulson, the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, publicly stated that the bursting housing bubble was 'the most significant risk to our economy'. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2007-10-01

• The crisis intensified, impacting subprime, Alt-A, collateralized debt obligation (CDO), mortgage, credit, hedge fund, and foreign bank markets. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2008-08-01

• The Case–Shiller home price index reported the largest price drop in its history. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2008-12-30

• The United States government allocated over $900 billion in special loans and rescues related to the housing bubble. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2008-01-01

• Housing prices reached new lows following the collapse of the bubble. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2011-01-01

• The average 30-year mortgage rate dipped as low as 6.2%. (Source: Web Search Results)

  2024-09-01

• Existing home sales rose 3.4% month-over-month to 3.96 million, and housing inventory rose 0.7% month-over-month to 1.37 million. (Source: Web Search Results)

  2024-10-01

• The average 30-year mortgage rate rose back above 7%. (Source: Web Search Results)

  2025-01-01

• The median home-sale price in the U.S. reached an all-time high for the month at $422,800, marking 23 consecutive months of year-over-year home-price increases. Housing inventory was at a 4.6-month supply. (Source: Web Search Results)

  2025-05-01

• Seasonally adjusted new home sales decreased 13.7% between April and May, and 6.3% compared to the previous year. (Source: Web Search Results)

  2025-05-01

• Home price appreciation was 1.4% year-over-year, showing a downward trend from 5% a year prior. (Source: Web Search Results)

  2025-07-01

• Forecast: The U.S. housing market is expected to remain challenging, with GDP growth projected to decline sharply to 1.4%. Existing home sales are predicted to continue faltering, and new-home sales are projected to fall. (Source: Web Search Results)

  2025-01-01

• Forecast: GDP growth is expected to rebound to 1.6% to 1.8%. (Source: Web Search Results)

  2026-01-01

• Forecast: Existing home sales are predicted to slowly increase as mortgage rates decline, and new-home sales are projected to rebound. (Source: Web Search Results)

  2030-01-01

2000s United States housing bubble

The 2000s United States housing bubble or house price boom or 2000s housing cycle was a sharp run up and subsequent collapse of house asset prices affecting over half of the U.S. states. In many regions a real estate bubble, it was the impetus for the subprime mortgage crisis. Housing prices peaked in early 2006, started to decline in 2006 and 2007, and reached new lows in 2011. On December 30, 2008, the Case–Shiller home price index reported the largest price drop in its history. The credit crisis resulting from the bursting of the housing bubble is an important cause of the Great Recession in the United States. Increased foreclosure rates in 2006–2007 among U.S. homeowners led to a crisis in August 2008 for the subprime, Alt-A, collateralized debt obligation (CDO), mortgage, credit, hedge fund, and foreign bank markets. In October 2007, Henry Paulson, the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, called the bursting housing bubble "the most significant risk to our economy". A bubble had the potential to affect not only on home valuations, but also mortgage markets, home builders, real estate, home supply retail outlets, Wall Street hedge funds held by large institutional investors, and foreign banks, increasing the risk of a nationwide recession. Concerns about the impact of the collapsing housing and credit markets on the larger U.S. economy caused President George W. Bush and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke to announce a limited bailout of the U.S. housing market for homeowners who were unable to pay their mortgage debts. In 2008 alone, the United States government allocated over $900 billion (~$1.25 trillion in 2023) to special loans and rescues related to the U.S. housing bubble. This was shared between the public sector and the private sector. Because of the large market share of Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) (both of which are government-sponsored enterprises) as well as the Federal Housing Administration, they received a substantial share of government support, even though their mortgages were more conservatively underwritten and actually performed better than those of the private sector.

Web Search Results

• Housing Market Predictions For The Rest Of 2025 | Bankrate

  Industry experts expect the remainder of 2025 to remain challenging for the U.S. housing market. Would-be homebuyers continue to be discouraged by elevated mortgage rates and ever-rising home prices. In addition, while housing inventory keeps growing, it’s still below the level needed for a balanced market. [...] The median home-sale price in the U.S. as of May 2025 was $422,800, according to NAR. That’s an all-time high for the month and marks 23 consecutive months of year-over-year home-price increases. The nation had a 4.6-month supply of housing inventory as of NAR’s May data, up from 3.8 months one year ago. The increase gives buyers more flexibility, but many areas are still in a seller’s market. [...] After dipping as low as 6.2 percent in September 2024, the average 30-year mortgage rate rose back above 7 percent in early 2025. Previous predictions of lower rates in 2025 have shifted, with experts now predicting rates will moderate but not necessarily decrease in a substantial way. Indeed, rates remain only just below that 7 percent threshold — 6.78 percent as of early July — indicating that affordability is likely to be a continuing issue for the rest of 2025.

• The Outlook for the U.S. Housing Market in 2025 - J.P. Morgan

  February 10, 2025 With several variables impacting the U.S. housing market — from soaring home prices to rock-bottom demand — where’s the sector headed in 2025? Explore the outlook with J.P.Morgan Research, factoring in the potential for a new set of policy priorities under the Trump administration. [...] “It’s evident that numerous aspects of Trump's policy will impact the housing market,” Sim said. “For now, though, all we can do is wait.” Related insights Image 12 16:46 - Global Research From tariffs to tightness: What’s happening in the US housing market? April 15, 2025 Take a deep dive into the complexities of the U.S. housing market with Anthony Paolone, co-head of U.S. Real Estate Stock Research and John Sim, head of Securitized Products Research. [...] — remains exceptionally low. And though housing inventory is creeping back up, it still remains below the historical averages. Existing home sales and inventory remain low Image 4 View text Version EHS and inventory remain low, though inventory rose 0.7% month-over-month to 1.37 million and existing home sales rose 3.4% month-over-month to 3.96 million in October 2024. Image 5 View Infographic View text Version Housing market supply remains tight nationally

• A New Housing Market “Correction” Begins | July 2025 Update

  still appreciating. They are up 1.4% year-over-year, but again, that growth rate is falling. And that really is what matters. You know, as an analyst, what I usually try and look for, the absolute number kind of matters, 1.4%. 4%. I don't care if that's 1.4 or 2%. What I care about is trend. Which way the line is going and the trend is clearly down. Just as an example, like a year ago, last May, the appreciation rate nationally was 5%. Now it's 1.4%. And it has been going down pretty steadily. [...] actually down a little bit year-over-year. Not a lot, like, you know, 1%, but I was hoping we'd start to see, you know, just a little bit of improvement. Unfortunately, we're seeing just a little bit of declines continuing there. So, that stinks for our industry. Uh, it also drags on US GDP and is going to slow down growth. And so total home sales volume, I know a lot of people focus on price, but volume is really important for the industry in general, just the health of the housing market and [...] roughly 7.5%. So if you compare that to inflation, you're still doing better. But it is a point I just think is really important to note. Now, of course, there are some regional differences that I want to call out. The metros with the biggest year-over-year increases are in the Midwest and are in the Northeast. So, we have Detroit at 10%, New York, New Jersey 10% roughly, Cleveland at seven, Nassau County, New York 6, New York 6. So, a lot around New York City. Three of the top five are are

• 2025-2030 Five-Year Housing Market Predictions - Real Estate

  The following is a summary for year-end 2025 and 2026, along with some predictions for the housing market through 2030. Although an outright recession is not currently being predicted, GDP growth is expected to decline sharply from the robust rates of 2.9% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024 to just 1.4% in 2025. While the Fed forecasts a rebound by 2026 and 2027, growth is expected to remain muted at 1.6% to 1.8%. [...] Home Sales: After falling sharply in 2023 and 2024 to the lowest levels in almost 30 years and continuing to falter in 2025, existing home sales are predicted to slowly increase through 2030 as mortgage rates decline. New-home sales, which rose in 2024 due to builders’ ability to buy down mortgage rates to boost affordability, are projected to fall in 2025 prior to rebounding in 2026 through 2030. Challenges include limited suitable land and higher-priced construction materials. At the same [...] 2025-2030 Five-Year Housing Market Predictions | U.S. News Housing Market Index | U.S. News =============== Image 1: U.S. News and World Report LogoSkip to content Real Estate Best Places Best Places to Live Best Places to Retire Methodology FAQs Places Rankings Housing Market Index Search Homes Find an Agent Services

• Housing Market Predictions For 2025: When Will Home Prices Drop?

  | MONTH | NEW HOME MEDIAN SALE PRICE | EXISTING-HOME MEDIAN SALE PRICE | NEW VS. EXISTING PRICE DIFFERENCE | PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | February 2025 | $415,100 | $396,800 | +$18,300 | +4.5% | | March 2025 | $403,700 | $403,100 | +$600 | +0.1% | | April 2025 | $411,400 | $414,000 | -$2,600 | -0.6% | | May 2025 | $426,600 | $422,800 | +$3,800 | +0.9% | Image 31: Left ArrowImage 32: Right Arrow Source: U.S. Census Bureau, HUD and NAR [...] Sales of newly built homes took a notable dip in May. The latest U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) data revealed that seasonally adjusted new home sales decreased 13.7% between April and May, and 6.3% compared to last year. Only the Northeast saw a monthly and annualized sales increase, while the Midwest, South and West recorded decreases.