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US Treasury yields

Topic

The rate of return on debt securities issued by the US government. A recent spike in these yields indicates falling bond prices and market anxiety about inflation and the national debt.

entitydetail.created_at

8/20/2025, 3:03:25 AM

entitydetail.last_updated

8/20/2025, 3:04:29 AM

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8/20/2025, 3:04:29 AM

Summary

US Treasury yields are a critical indicator of the U.S. government's borrowing costs, representing the return investors receive on debt instruments issued by the U.S. Department of the Treasury to finance government spending. These securities, including Treasury bills, notes, bonds, and TIPS, are managed by the Bureau of the Fiscal Service since 2012 and are globally recognized as among the lowest-risk investments due to the full faith and credit backing of the U.S. government. Recently, a notable market divergence has been observed, with US Treasury yields spiking concurrently with increases in the S&P 500, Gold, and Bitcoin. This trend is influenced by widespread fears of inflation, the ballooning US national debt, and significant monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve, such as recent rate cut considerations. Furthermore, shifts in global economic strategies, exemplified by China's pivot from US treasuries to gold, also play a role in shaping these yields.

Referenced in 1 Document
Research Data
Extracted Attributes
  • Type

    Government Debt Instruments

  • Issuer

    United States Department of the Treasury

  • Backing

    Full faith and credit of the United States

  • Purpose

    Finance government spending as a supplement to taxation

  • Trading

    Can be traded in secondary markets

  • Management

    Bureau of the Fiscal Service (since 2012)

  • Risk Level

    One of the world's lowest-risk investments

  • Issuance Mechanism

    Sold in auctions conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

  • Marketable Securities Types

    Treasury bills, Treasury notes, Treasury bonds, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)

  • Historical 10-Year Yield High

    15.82% (September 1981)

  • 10-Year Yield (August 13, 2025)

    4.28%

Timeline
  • The US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield reached an all-time high of 15.82%. (Source: Web Search)

    1981-09

  • Management of U.S. government debt succeeded from the Bureau of the Public Debt to the Bureau of the Fiscal Service. (Source: Wikipedia)

    2012

  • Global markets are repositioning for a Donald Trump victory in the 2024 US Presidential Election, contributing to market dynamics including spiking US Treasury yields. (Source: Related Documents)

    2024

  • The yield on the US 10 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 4.28%. (Source: Web Search)

    2025-08-13

  • A Federal Reserve rate cut on this date was criticized as a significant policy error by David Sacks. (Source: Related Documents)

    2025-09-18

  • US Treasury yields have been spiking alongside increases in the S&P 500, Gold, and Bitcoin, indicating a market divergence. (Source: Related Documents)

    Recent

  • Concerns about inflation and the ballooning US National Debt are contributing to the macroeconomic picture influencing yields. (Source: Related Documents)

    Recent

  • China's strategic pivot from US treasuries to Gold highlights a wider global leverage problem. (Source: Related Documents)

    Recent

Wikipedia
View on Wikipedia
United States Treasury security

United States Treasury securities, also called Treasuries or Treasurys, are government debt instruments issued by the United States Department of the Treasury to finance government spending as a supplement to taxation. Since 2012, the U.S. government debt has been managed by the Bureau of the Fiscal Service, succeeding the Bureau of the Public Debt. There are four types of marketable Treasury securities: Treasury bills, Treasury notes, Treasury bonds, and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). The government sells these securities in auctions conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, after which they can be traded in secondary markets. Non-marketable securities include savings bonds, issued to individuals; the State and Local Government Series (SLGS), purchaseable only with the proceeds of state and municipal bond sales; and the Government Account Series, purchased by units of the federal government. Treasury securities are backed by the full faith and credit of the United States, meaning that the government promises to raise money by any legally available means to repay them. Although the United States is a sovereign power and may default without recourse, its strong record of repayment has given Treasury securities a reputation as one of the world's lowest-risk investments. This low risk gives Treasuries a unique place in the financial system, where they are used as cash equivalents by institutions, corporations, and wealthy investors.

Web Search Results
  • Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates 2025

    | 08/04/2025 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4.48 | 4.46 | 4.43 | 4.35 | 4.28 | 4.15 | 3.82 | 3.69 | 3.66 | 3.75 | 3.95 | 4.22 | 4.78 | 4.80 | | 08/05/2025 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4.49 | 4.48 | 4.41 | 4.34 | 4.29 | 4.16 | 3.92 | 3.72 | 3.63 | 3.77 | 3.97 | 4.22 | 4.77 | 4.78 | [...] | 07/23/2025 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4.37 | 4.46 | 4.45 | 4.41 | 4.42 | 4.31 | 4.08 | 3.88 | 3.84 | 3.94 | 4.15 | 4.40 | 4.93 | 4.95 | | 07/24/2025 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4.37 | 4.47 | 4.46 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.32 | 4.10 | 3.91 | 3.87 | 3.98 | 4.18 | 4.43 | 4.95 | 4.96 | [...] | 03/31/2025 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4.38 | 4.36 | 4.35 | 4.32 | 4.31 | 4.23 | 4.03 | 3.89 | 3.89 | 3.96 | 4.09 | 4.23 | 4.62 | 4.59 | | 04/01/2025 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4.38 | 4.36 | 4.35 | 4.32 | 4.30 | 4.23 | 4.01 | 3.87 | 3.85 | 3.91 | 4.03 | 4.17 | 4.56 | 4.52 |

  • US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - Quote - Chart - Historical Data

    The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note held near 4.29% on Wednesday, facing downward pressure as the latest US inflation data strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month. Headline inflation was unchanged at 2.7%, defying forecasts for a tariff-driven uptick to 2.8%, while core inflation edged up to 3.1%, its highest level in six months. Markets are now pricing in a 94% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in September, with another reduction before year-end [...] The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 4.28% on August 13, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.16 points, though it remains 0.44 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Historically, the US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield reached an all time high of 15.82 in September of 1981. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - data, [...] ### The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 4.28% on August 13, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.16 points, though it remains 0.44 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. The US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield is expected to trade at 4.24 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro

  • Treasury Curve Forecast | econforecasting.com

    | Date | 1m | 3m | 6m | 1y | 5y | 7y | 10y | 20y | 30y | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-07 | 4.36 | 4.42 | 4.31 | 4.07 | 3.95 | 4.15 | 4.39 | 4.92 | 4.91 | | 2025-06 | 4.24 | 4.42 | 4.30 | 4.06 | 3.96 | 4.16 | 4.38 | 4.90 | 4.89 | | 2025-05 | 4.37 | 4.36 | 4.30 | 4.09 | 4.02 | 4.22 | 4.42 | 4.92 | 4.90 | | 2025-04 | 4.35 | 4.32 | 4.20 | 3.95 | 3.91 | 4.08 | 4.28 | 4.74 | 4.71 | | 2025-03 | 4.37 | 4.34 | 4.27 | 4.06 | 4.04 | 4.16 | 4.28 | 4.63 | 4.60 | [...] | 2025-12 | 4.22 | 4.18 | 4.13 | 4.11 | 4.42 | 4.59 | 4.78 | 5.14 | 5.17 | | 2026-01 | 4.14 | 4.12 | 4.08 | 4.08 | 4.41 | 4.59 | 4.78 | 5.14 | 5.17 | | 2026-02 | 4.04 | 4.02 | 4.01 | 4.03 | 4.38 | 4.56 | 4.75 | 5.10 | 5.13 | | 2026-03 | 3.97 | 3.97 | 3.97 | 4.01 | 4.38 | 4.56 | 4.75 | 5.10 | 5.13 | | 2026-04 | 3.88 | 3.89 | 3.91 | 3.96 | 4.34 | 4.52 | 4.71 | 5.06 | 5.08 | | 2026-05 | 3.79 | 3.82 | 3.85 | 3.91 | 4.30 | 4.48 | 4.66 | 5.01 | 5.03 | [...] | 2026-12 | 3.46 | 3.52 | 3.58 | 3.64 | 4.08 | 4.25 | 4.42 | 4.75 | 4.77 | | 2027-01 | 3.44 | 3.51 | 3.56 | 3.63 | 4.08 | 4.24 | 4.42 | 4.74 | 4.76 | | 2027-02 | 3.43 | 3.50 | 3.55 | 3.62 | 4.08 | 4.24 | 4.42 | 4.74 | 4.76 |

  • Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant ...

    Published Time: Tue, 12 Aug 2025 20:16:54 GMT Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS10) | FRED | St. Louis Fed =============== Skip to main content ========================================================================================================================================================== Observations 2025-08-11: 4.27 | Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted | Daily Updated: Aug 12, 2025 3:16 PM CDT

  • 10 year treasury note yield - forecast chart - Econforecasting

    | Date | Percent | | --- | --- | | 2025-07 | 4.5600 | | 2025-08 | 4.8500 | | 2025-09 | 4.9400 | | 2025-10 | 4.9200 | | 2025-11 | 4.8400 | | 2025-12 | 4.7800 | | 2026-01 | 4.7800 | | 2026-02 | 4.7500 | | 2026-03 | 4.7500 | | 2026-04 | 4.7100 | | 2026-05 | 4.6600 | | 2026-06 | 4.6300 | | 2026-07 | 4.5700 | | 2026-08 | 4.5100 | | 2026-09 | 4.4900 | 1 2 3 4 5 [...] | Date | Percent | | --- | --- | | 2025-07 | 4.3900 | | 2025-06 | 4.3800 | | 2025-05 | 4.4200 | | 2025-04 | 4.2800 | | 2025-03 | 4.2800 | | 2025-02 | 4.4500 | | 2025-01 | 4.6300 | | 2024-12 | 4.3900 | | 2024-11 | 4.3600 | | 2024-10 | 4.1000 | | 2024-09 | 3.7200 | | 2024-08 | 3.8700 | | 2024-07 | 4.2500 | | 2024-06 | 4.3100 | | 2024-05 | 4.4800 | 1 2 3 4 5 … 15 [...] | Date | Percent | | --- | --- | | 2025Q1 | 4.2500 | | 2025Q2 | 4.1100 | | 2025Q3 | 4.0300 | | 2025Q4 | 3.9900 | | 2026Q1 | 3.9500 | | 2026Q2 | 3.9400 | | 2026Q3 | 3.9300 | | 2026Q4 | 3.9200 | | 2027Q1 | 3.9200 | | 2027Q2 | 3.9200 | | 2027Q3 | 3.9100 | | 2027Q4 | 3.9100 | | 2028Q1 | 3.9000 | | 2028Q2 | 3.9000 | | 2028Q3 | 3.8900 | 1 2 3