Great Filter

Extracted Attributes

• Proposer

  Robin Hanson

• Concept Type

  Philosophical concept; Resolution to Fermi Paradox

• Core Hypothesis

  A significant barrier exists in the development of life from its origins to advanced civilizations, making detectable extraterrestrial life exceedingly rare.

• Key Implication

  The more likely life could evolve to humanity's current stage, the bleaker humanity's future prospects become.

• Proposer's Field

  Economics

• Related Fields of Study

  Astrobiology, Philosophy, Physics

• Potential Filter Scenarios

  Past evolutionary hurdles (e.g., abiogenesis, eukaryotic cell, multicellularity, tool-using intelligence) or future challenges (e.g., self-destruction, inability to settle other worlds, external events like asteroid impacts, gamma-ray bursts, supernovae).

Timeline

• The first version of Robin Hanson's online essay 'The Great Filter – Are We Almost Past It?' was written, introducing the concept. (Source: Wikipedia, DBPedia)

  1996-08

• Robin Hanson's online essay 'The Great Filter – Are We Almost Past It?' was last updated. (Source: Wikipedia, DBPedia)

  1998-09-15

Great Filter

The Great Filter is an idea that, in the development of life from the earliest stages of abiogenesis to reaching the highest levels of development on the Kardashev scale, there is a barrier to development that makes detectable extraterrestrial life exceedingly rare. The Great Filter is one possible resolution of the Fermi paradox. The main conclusion of the Great Filter is that there is an inverse correlation between the probability that other life could evolve to the present stage in which humanity is, and the chances of humanity to survive in the future. The concept originates in Robin Hanson's argument that the failure to find any extraterrestrial civilizations in the observable universe implies that something is wrong with one or more of the arguments (from various scientific disciplines) that the appearance of advanced intelligent life is probable; this observation is conceptualized in terms of a "Great Filter" which acts to reduce the great number of sites where intelligent life might arise to the tiny number of intelligent species with advanced civilizations actually observed (currently just one: human). This probability threshold, which could lie in the past or following human extinction, might work as a barrier to the evolution of intelligent life, or as a high probability of self-destruction. The main conclusion of this argument is that the more probable it is that other life could evolve to the present stage in which humanity is, the bleaker the future chances of humanity probably are. The idea was first proposed in an online essay titled "The Great Filter – Are We Almost Past It?". The first version was written in August 1996 and the article was last updated on September 15, 1998. Hanson's formulation has received recognition in several published sources discussing the Fermi paradox and its implications.

Web Search Results

• Great Filter - Wikipedia

  The Great Filter is an idea that, in the development of life from the earliest stages of abiogenesis to reaching the highest levels of development on the Kardashev scale, there is a barrier to development that makes detectable extraterrestrial life exceedingly rare. The Great Filter is one possible resolution of the Fermi paradox. The main conclusion of the Great Filter is that there is an inverse correlation between the probability that other life could evolve to the present stage in which [...] The concept originates in Robin Hanson's argument that the failure to find any extraterrestrial civilizations in the observable universe implies that something is wrong with one or more of the arguments (from various scientific disciplines) that the appearance of advanced intelligent life is probable; this observation is conceptualized in terms of a "Great Filter" which acts to reduce the great number of sites where intelligent life might arise to the tiny number of intelligent species with [...] Astrobiologists Dirk Schulze-Makuch and William Bains, reviewing the history of life on Earth, including convergent evolution, concluded that transitions such as oxygenic photosynthesis, the eukaryotic cell, multicellularity, and tool-using intelligence are likely to occur on any Earth-like planet given enough time. They argue that the Great Filter may be abiogenesis, the rise of technological human-level intelligence, or an inability to settle other worlds because of self-destruction or a lack

• The Great Filter: A possible solution to the Fermi Paradox

  Simply stated, the Great Filter says that intelligent interstellar lifeforms must first take many critical steps, and at least one of these steps must be highly improbable. Indeed, the premise of the Great Filter is that there’s at least one hurdle that is so high virtually no species can clear it and move on to the next. But while the term the Great Filter suggests the conscious action of some sort of exogenous entity, in reality, the hypothesis is more a way of thinking about the relative [...] Image 2: greatfilterfermiparadox The Great Filter theory suggests that all life must overcome certain challenges, and at least one hurdle is nearly impossible to clear. Pixabay [...] The Great Filter could also be a purely outside event that is not dependent on the species its testing, regardless of how advanced they may be. For instance, the impact of a giant asteroid or rogue planet, a nearby gamma-ray burst, or an intrusive supernova could potentially annihilate all life on Earth — or any other planet for that matter. No technology in our arsenal today could stop these events from occurring, even if we had forewarning.

• What is the Great Filter, and can we survive it? - EarthSky

  Economist Robin Hanson first proposed the Great Filter, in the late 1990s. It’s the idea of that – even if life forms abundantly in our Milky Way galaxy – each extraterrestrial civilization ultimately faces some barrier to its own survival. The barrier might come from without (for example, an asteroid striking a planet, and wiping out all life forms). Or it might come from within (for example, all-out nuclear war). [...] We postulate that an existential disaster may lay in wait as our society advances exponentially towards space exploration, acting as the Great Filter: a phenomenon that wipes out civilizations before they can encounter each other … In this article, we propose several possible scenarios, including anthropogenic and natural hazards, both of which can be prevented with reforms in individual, institutional and intrinsic behaviors. We also take into account multiple calamity candidates: nuclear [...] So you see there’s not just one possible Great Filter for Earth, but many. Any one of them could be our downfall. These scientists are suggesting something that sounds simple on its face, but is (apparently) hard to do. That is, in order to avoid the Great Filter, humans must work together and recognize the big picture. As the paper said:

• Why Alien Life Would be our Doom - The Great Filter - YouTube

  things from climbing the staircase, beyond the step we're on right now. ...Something that makes becoming a galactic civilization extremely hard, maybe impossible. This is the Great Filter. ...A challenge or danger so hard to overcome, that it eliminates almost every species that encounters it. There are two scenarios: One means we are incredibly special and lucky, the other one means we are doomed and practically already dead. It depends on where the filter [...] The filter is ahead of us. Plenty of others died already. A Great Filter before us is orders of magnitude more dangerous than anything we encountered so far. Even if a major disaster killed most of us or threw us back thousands of years, we would survive and recover. And if we can recover, even if it takes a million years, then it's not a Great Filter, but just a roadblock to an eventual galactic civilization. On universal timescales, even millions of years are just the blink of an eye. If a

• The Great Filter and the Fermi Paradox | Psychology Today

  ## The Great Filter and the Fermi Paradox The Great Filter theory suggests that our lack of contact with extraterrestrial civilizations may arise from either their absence or their inability (or unwillingness) to overcome these critical thresholds. Like us, they might find themselves balancing the desire to advance with the instinct to maintain the status quo for survival. [...] An intriguing explanation for this paradox may lie in the Great Filter concept, which posits that at some point between the emergence of life and the development of civilizations capable of colonizing galaxies, these civilizations face challenges so formidable that they hinder further progress or lead to extinction. This idea may resonate particularly well within psychological and sociological contexts, where a species' instinct for survival might inherently resist changes and innovations that [...] Artificial intelligence (AI) is an example of this phenomenon, as many modern-day humans feel reluctant to allow AI to advance past a certain point (a.k.a. a possible Great Filter), fearing that it could result in human extinction. Part of our survival instinct is to believe that the greater good prioritizes human survival above all.

• Instance Of

  Q17737

The Great Filter is one possible resolution of the Fermi paradox. It posits that in the development of life from the earliest stages of abiogenesis to reaching the highest levels of development on the Kardashev scale, there exists some particular barrier to development that makes detectable extraterrestrial life exceedingly rare. The concept originates in Robin Hanson's argument that the failure to find any extraterrestrial civilizations in the observable universe implies that something is wrong with one or more of the arguments (from various scientific disciplines) that the appearance of advanced intelligent life is probable; this observation is conceptualized in terms of a "Great Filter" which acts to reduce the great number of sites where intelligent life might arise to the tiny number of intelligent species with advanced civilizations actually observed (currently just one: human). This probability threshold, which could lie in the past or following human extinction, might work as a barrier to the evolution of intelligent life, or as a high probability of self-destruction. The main conclusion of this argument is that the easier it was for life to evolve to the present stage, the bleaker the future chances of humanity probably are. The idea was first proposed in an online essay titled "The Great Filter – Are We Almost Past It?", written by economist Robin Hanson. The first version was written in August 1996 and the article was last updated on September 15, 1998. Hanson's formulation has received recognition in several published sources discussing the Fermi paradox and its implications.