Trough of Disillusionment

Extracted Attributes

• Purpose

  Opportunity for introspection, refinement, and course correction.

• Followed By

  Slope of Enlightenment

• Preceded By

  Peak of Inflated Expectations

• Key Phase In

  Gartner Hype Cycle

• Characteristics

  Initial enthusiasm wanes, practical challenges and limitations become apparent, decline in interest and investment, experiments and implementations fail, producers of the technology shake out or fail.

• Current Example

  AI Innovation, AI Agents, Reasoning Models (for many enterprises).

• Alternative Name

  Trough of Despair

• Associated Challenges (AI)

  Managing AI Hallucination, hindering reliable deployment.

• Outcome for Surviving Technologies

  Emerge stronger and more refined, eventually reaching the Slope of Enlightenment and Plateau of Productivity.

Timeline

• The Gartner Hype Cycle framework, which includes the Trough of Disillusionment, was introduced by Gartner analyst Jackie Fenn. (Source: Wikipedia)

  1995-XX-XX

• Many enterprises are currently experiencing the Trough of Disillusionment in the realm of AI innovation due to practical challenges like managing AI hallucination. (Source: Related Documents, Summary)

  Current

Gartner hype cycle

The Gartner hype cycle is a graphical presentation developed, used and branded by the American research and advisory firm Gartner to represent the maturity, adoption, and social application of specific technologies. The hype cycle framework was introduced in 1995 by Gartner analyst Jackie Fenn to provide a graphical and conceptual presentation of the maturity of emerging technologies through five phases.

Web Search Results

• What Is The Trough Of Disillusionment Phase? - Quantum Zeitgeist

  The trough of disillusionment is a critical phase in the innovation-adoption curve where initial enthusiasm wanes, and limitations become apparent. This phase can lead to decreased funding, talent acquisition, and momentum, but also presents an opportunity for introspection, refinement, and course correction. The slope of enlightenment follows, characterized by a nuanced understanding of the innovation’s capabilities and limitations. Measuring the duration and depth of the trough phase is [...] The trough of disillusionment phase, also known as the “trough of despair,” is a critical stage in the hype cycle of emerging technologies. It occurs when the initial excitement and inflated expectations surrounding a new technology or innovation fail to materialize, leading to a sharp decline in interest and investment. [...] The trough of disillusionment phase is a critical stage in the emotional response to innovation adoption, characterized by a significant decline in user enthusiasm and interest. This phenomenon was first identified by Gartner, a leading research and advisory company, in their Hype Cycle model, which describes the typical progression of innovation adoption. The trough of disillusionment typically occurs after the initial excitement and hype surrounding a new technology or product have worn off,

• What Does Trough of Disillusionment Mean in Tech? | VBM - Medium

  In the ever-evolving world of technology, the term “Trough of Disillusionment” is a critical phase in the Gartner Hype Cycle. This cycle, developed by the American research and advisory firm Gartner, represents the maturity, adoption, and social application of specific technologies through five distinct phases. # What is the Trough of Disillusionment? [...] The Trough of Disillusionment occurs after the initial excitement and inflated expectations surrounding a new technology. During this phase, interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver on the initial hype. Producers of the technology either shake out or fail, and investment continues only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters. # Historical Moments of the Trough of Disillusionment # Moving Forward [...] The Trough of Disillusionment is not the end of the road for a technology. It is a critical phase where the hype is stripped away, and the true potential of the technology is tested. Those that survive this phase often emerge stronger and more refined, eventually reaching the Slope of Enlightenment and the Plateau of Productivity.

• AI's Trough of Disillusionment - Mission Cloud Services

  One of my favorite conceptual tools when evaluating new technologies is the Gartner Hype Cycle, which outlines five key phases of technology evolution. It starts with a “technology trigger,” such as the rise of generative AI, and then proceeds into the “peak of inflated expectations” and then into the “trough of disillusionment,” where expectations and reality diverge while a technology matures. [...] Because the definition of the trough of disillusionment is subjective, I think it will be hard to pin down exactly when GenAI will have entered the trough. In my opinion, the pace of innovation is simply too high, and until we see it slowing, the hype train isn’t pulling back into the station. We're still a long way from the “boring” plateau of productivity, and while there will inevitably be cooling of the sky high hype, I believe that the dramatic pace and rapidly improving economics indicate [...] One of the key drivers of Cloud’s entry into the trough of disillusionment was financially driven. Moving from CapEx to OpEx was challenging. The very nature of IaaS makes it so accessible compared to traditional infrastructure that it's easy to get into a position where a lack of governance leads to explosive costs. AWS and the other hyperscalers became more efficient over time, and introduced tools like reservations, storage classes, etc., to address these challenges. S3, for example, started

• Gartner Hype Cycle Research Methodology

  Trough of Disillusionment: Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters. [...] Each Hype Cycle drills down into the five key phases of a technology’s life cycle. Innovation Trigger: A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven. Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early publicity produces a number of success stories — often accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; many do not. [...] Plateau of Productivity: Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology's broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off. #### Hype Cycles help you: Separate hype from the real drivers of a technology’s commercial promise Reduce the risk of your technology investment decisions Compare your understanding of a technology’s business value with the objectivity of experienced IT analysts

• Gartner hype cycle - Wikipedia

  The cycle is not scientific in nature, and there is no data or analysis that would justify the cycle. With the (subjective) terms _disillusionment_, _enlightenment_ and _expectations_ it cannot be described objectively or clearly where technology now really is. The terms are misleading in the sense that one gets the wrong idea what they can use a technology for. The user does not want to be disappointed, so should they stay away from technology in the Trough of Disillusionment? [...] > We find, in short, that the cycle is a rarity. Tracing breakthrough technologies over time, only a small share—perhaps a fifth—move from innovation to excitement to despondency to widespread adoption. Lots of tech becomes widely used without such a rollercoaster ride. Others go from boom to bust, but do not come back. We estimate that of all the forms of tech which fall into the trough of disillusionment, six in ten do not rise again. Examples -------- \[edit\] [...] Early publicity produces a number of success stories—often accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; most do not. 3\. Trough of disillusionment Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investment continues only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters. 4\. Slope of enlightenment