Energy Race with China

Extracted Attributes

• China's Role

  Dominant force in renewable energy, world's top electricity producer from renewable sources, largest investor in renewable energy.

• Topic Definition

  A strategic reframing of global energy competition, emphasizing the United States' need to expand electricity production for national security and global competitiveness against China.

• US Strategic Focus

  Nuclear Energy, Electricity Production Expansion

• US Policy Incentive

  Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funnels billions to domestic solar, battery, hydrogen production.

• China's Peak Emissions Goal

  Before 2030

• China's Carbon Neutrality Goal

  Before 2060

• China's Non-Fossil Fuel Target (2060)

  80% of total energy mix

• China's Battery Energy Storage Capacity

  Around 70 GW, projected to 100 GWh by 2025

• China's Renewable Energy Investment (2017)

  US$126.6 billion (45% of global investments)

• China's Energy Transition Investment (2024)

  Estimated $800 billion (Bloomberg New Energy Finance)

• China's Solar and Wind Capacity Target (2030)

  1,200 GW

• China's Clean Energy Contribution to GDP (2024)

  10%

• China's Installed Renewable Capacity (End 2024)

  1,878 GW

• China's Renewable Electricity Generation (2021)

  29.4%

• China's Installed Power Generation Capacity (April)

  2.41 billion KW

• China's Renewable Electricity Generation Projection (2025)

  36%

Timeline

• Production of solar cells in China expanded 100-fold. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2005-2014

• Electricity demand levels in China and the United States were very similar, slightly greater than 4 million gigawatt hours (GWh). (Source: Brookings)

  2010-01-01

• China became the world's largest producer of photovoltaic power, with 43 GW of total installed capacity. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2015-01-01

• US-China economic competition has come to define U.S. foreign policy. (Source: RAND)

  2017-01-01

• Global investments in renewable energy amounted to US$279.8 billion worldwide, with China accounting for US$126.6 billion. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2017-01-01

• Renewable sources provided 29.4% of China's electricity generation. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2021-01-01

• The Chinese economy used 81% more energy than the U.S. economy. (Source: Brookings)

  2023-01-01

• China installed over 373 GW of renewables, reaching a total installed renewable capacity of 1,878 GW by the end of the year. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2024-01-01

• Clean energy contributed a record 10% of China's GDP. (Source: Energy and Clean Air)

  2024-01-01

• The share of renewables in China's total power generation is expected to increase to 36%. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2025-01-01

• China's energy storage market is expected to break through 100 gigawatt hours (GWh). (Source: China-Briefing)

  2025-01-01

• China aims to achieve a combined 1,200 GW of solar and wind capacity. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2030-01-01

• China pledges to peak emissions. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2030-01-01

• China pledges to achieve carbon neutrality. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2060-01-01

• China aims to have 80% of its total energy mix come from non-fossil fuel sources. (Source: Wikipedia)

  2060-01-01

Renewable energy in China

China is the world's top electricity producer from renewable energy sources. China's renewable energy capacity is growing faster than its fossil fuels and nuclear power capacity. China Installed over 373 GW of renewables in 2024, reaching a total installed renewable capacity of 1,878 GW by the end of the year. The country aims to have 80% of its total energy mix come from non-fossil fuel sources by 2060, and achieve a combined 1,200 GW of solar and wind capacity by 2030. Although China currently has the world's largest installed capacity of hydro, solar and wind power, its energy needs are so large that renewable sources provided only 29.4% of its electricity generation in 2021. The share of renewables in total power generation is expected to continue increasing to 36% by 2025, in line with China's pledge to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 and peak emissions before 2030. China sees renewables as a source of energy security and not only a means to reduce carbon emission. Unlike oil, coal and gas, the supplies of which are finite and subject to geopolitical tensions, renewable energy systems can be built and used wherever there is sufficient water, wind, and sun. China is also a major leader of clean energy technology.: 98  As Chinese renewable manufacturing has grown, the costs of renewable energy technologies have dropped dramatically due to both innovation and economies of scale from market expansion. In 2015, China became the world's largest producer of photovoltaic power, with 43 GW of total installed capacity. From 2005 to 2014, production of solar cells in China has expanded 100-fold. The country is the world's largest investor in renewable energy. In 2017, investments in renewable energy amounted to US$279.8 billion worldwide, with China accounting for US$126.6 billion or 45% of the global investments.

Web Search Results

• How the U.S. Can Stop Losing the Race for Clean Energy

  67 Jeff Tollefson, “US nuclear-fusion lab enters new era: achieving ‘ignition’ over and over,” _Nature_, December 15, 2023, Aaron Larson, “U.S. in a Race with China to Develop Commercial Fusion Power Technology,” _POWER_, September 20, 2024, “The Pathway to: Next-Generation Geothermal Power Commercial Liftoff,” U.S. Department of Energy, accessed February 2025, [...] A second critical strategy is to develop leapfrog plays. Rather than trying to catch up to China in current generation technologies (such as conventional solar panels and lithium-ion batteries), the United States should focus on developing and commercializing next generation technologies where supply chains and market dominance are not yet established. This would leverage the United States’ innovation advantage while helping secure a leading edge in the industrial base for clean energy [...] the IRA, has funneled billions of dollars to domestic solar, battery, and hydrogen production in pursuit of developing an industrial base and positioning India as an alternative clean tech producer to China.28 Emerging economies such as Morocco, Vietnam, and Serbia have received investment from both China and Europe in the hopes of emerging as new energy middle powers.29

• Analysis: Clean energy contributed a record 10% of China's GDP in ...

  There is likely to be further growth in clean-energy investment in 2025 as major projects race to finish before the end of the14th five-year plan, covering 2021-2025. Beyond this year, development of the clean-energy sectors depends strongly on the new targets and policies in the next five-year plan, which is being finalised this year. [...] The estimates are likely to be conservative in some key respects. For example, Bloomberg New Energy Financeestimates“investment in the energy transition” in China in 2024 at $800bn. This estimate covers a nearly identical list of sectors to ours, but excludes manufacturing – the comparable number from our data is $600bn. [...] There islikelyto be further strong growth in clean power investments in 2025, as large schemes race to complete before the end of the five-year plan period at the end of the year. ##### Railways Rail transportation made up 14% of the value of the clean-energy sectors, with revenue from passenger rail transportation the largest source of value.

• How do China and America think about the energy transition?

  More than 15 years of the Chinese government’s unwavering policy attention has been an important factor in China’s lead in many parts of the clean energy industry, especially in supply chains. If the United States is to compete effectively in the clean energy future, it will also need consistent, forward-looking policy. The IRA is structured to provide long-term incentives for clean energy investment and growth, similar to China’s long-term investment policy. Also, like China’s policy, the IRA [...] The United States and China differ considerably in how they currently power their economies. Coal is by far China’s largest energy source, while the United States has a more balanced energy system, running on roughly one-third oil, one-third natural gas, and one-third other sources, including coal, nuclear, hydroelectricity, and other renewables. In 2023, the Chinese economy also used 81% more energy than the U.S. economy. With a population roughly one-fourth that of China’s, the United States [...] In 2010, electricity demand levels in China and the United States were very similar, slightly greater than 4 million gigawatt hours (GWh). Since that time, electricity demand in China has more than doubled while demand in the United States has been flat (although data centers and artificial intelligence are causing U.S. electricity demand to grow again). Primary energy demand has followed a similar but less dramatic trajectory over the same time period, growing 50% in China while shrinking

• U.S.-China Economic Competition: Gains and Risks in a Complex ...

  of specific aspects of U.S.-China competition, including return migration of Chinese nationals from the United States to China, energy and environmental security, how Chinese privately owned enterprises might differ from Western private enterprises and implications for policy, and potential ways by which to update the rules of international trade to adapt to China's unique system of economic management. [...] U.S.-China competition, including economic competition, has come to define U.S. foreign policy since 2017. The two economies are the first- and second-largest national economies in the world and are deeply intertwined. Changes to the relationship, however necessary, could be costly. The United States thus faces a challenge ensuring that its economy meets the nation's needs under conditions of coupled, strategic competition. [...] This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

• China's Energy Storage Sector: Policies and Investment Opportunities

  China’s renewable sector is currently experiencing rapid growth. According to data from the National Energy Administration (NEA), as of April, the country’s installed power generation capacity was about 2.41 billion kilowatts (KW), a year-on-year increase of 7.9 percent. China is aiming for 50 percent of its electricity generation from renewable power by 2025, a 42-percent increase from now. China also has one of the largest battery energy storage markets, with a total capacity around 70GW with [...] Energy storage is crucial for China’s green transition, as the country needs an advanced, efficient, and affordable energy storage system to respond to the challenge in power generation. According to Trend Force, China’s energy storage market is expected to break through 100 gigawatt hours (GWh) by 2025. It is set to become the world’s fastest-growing energy storage market, overtaking Europe and the United States. Why is energy storage important? [...] a market value of US$1.2 billion in 2021, which is projected to increase to 170 GW with $6 billion by 2025.